Bet On Biden

At this point, for many tax situ­a­tions, you can­not ra­tio­nally be­lieve both ‘Nate Silver is cred­ible’ and ‘I should not be bet­ting on Bi­den’. If you have any trust in Nate you can­not think Bi­den is be­low ~80% to win. You can get ‘Bi­den’ for 65-66c on Pre­dic­tit. Notably, there are sev­eral de facto copies of the same bet (Fe­male VP, Dems win pres­i­dency). Even with fees, you are mak­ing a lot of stochas­tic money. Your cap­i­tal will prob­a­bly not be held up that long.

If you are out­side the USA you can plau­si­bly get even bet­ter odds. There are many places you can get im­plied odds of 62-63%. This bet gets worse if you are pay­ing tons of in­come tax and can­not offset losses. But this is a very good bet for lots of peo­ple.

Pol­ling Averages

I ed­ited in an image of the rol­ling pol­ling av­er­ages so peo­ple can judge this for them­selves.

Here is an­other good anal­y­sis of why we should be con­fi­dent in Bi­den.

In gen­eral, I think Ra­tion­al­ists should be a lot ‘louder’ about their ad­vice when they are sure. For many tax situ­a­tions, this is a com­plete slam dunk. I re­ally wish ra­tio­nal­ists had been louder about similar ad­vice in the past when I could benefit.

Con­test En­trants Think Trump is Go­ing to Lose

Of the 98 en­tries, only six said that the Demo­cratic can­di­date was un­der 50c to win the pres­i­dency. In fact, the me­dian pre­dicted prob­a­bil­ity for the Demo­cratic can­di­date (here­after Bi­den, for brevity) among con­test en­trants was 87%; no­tably, the me­dian prob­a­bil­ity given by the mod­els out there is also 87% (though Nate Silver has yet to re­lease his and based on his fights with G. Elliott Mor­ris it’s prob­a­bly not go­ing to come in very high).

This con­fi­dence in Bi­den (he is “Likely” to win the pres­i­dency, in the par­lance of ver­bal hand­i­cap­pers) isn’t shared by the mar­kets. Both BetFair and Pre­dic­tIt price Joe in the low 60s, sug­gest­ing that the pres­i­dency “Leans” Bi­den (the price ranges on PI de­pend­ing on the mar­ket you’re look­ing at). Even Silver thinks that’s too low: “I don’t think peo­ple re­al­ize how dumb and some­times even ir­ra­tional the prices are at poli­ti­cal bet­ting mar­kets as com­pared to al­most ev­ery other type of mar­ket (which is not to say other mar­kets are always ra­tio­nal, ei­ther).” and “Too low on Bi­den.”

Note: My claims are com­pletely or­thog­o­nal to whether Bi­den should win. Ra­tion­al­ists, in gen­eral, have some faith in Nate Silver and similar anal­y­sis. This post is about the log­i­cal con­clu­sion of that faith. Please do not dis­cuss the mer­its of which can­di­date is bet­ter for the coun­try.

edit: At this point if any­one is read­ing and can ac­cess in­ter­na­tional mar­kets the ‘safe’ line is to buy both ‘pop vote’ and ‘Bi­den’. Pop vote is safe so you can ‘hedge’ Bi­den bets with a safe +EV pop vote bet. This way you win money un­less Dems lose the pop vote (ex­tremely un­likely).