I founded All In Labs, a for-profit venture studio.
I’m based in London and interested in AI safety, forecasting, community building, rationality, mental health, games, running and probably other stuff.
Before I was a programmer I was a professional poker player, where I picked up the habit of calculating the EV of almost every action in my life, and subsequently discovered EA.
If you want to learn more about me, you can check out my website here: https://jonnyspicer.com
That’s good to know—transcripts from Dwarkesh’s podcast are one of the things I’d be most excited about evaluating too and agreed the one with Leopold seems like a great one to start with.
Provide an online search engine, an online marketplace, and a cloud computing service;
Should this be “Provide an online search engine, an online marketplace, or a cloud computing service;”?
I think in many cases this is a feature rather than a bug, I’d be curious as to whether you had an example of a time when having made the prediction would be deleterious to realising the desired outcome? Assuming as Adam says that you’re more interested in the outcome than the prediction being accurate.
This is a cool idea, good work putting the site together! I noticed some of the articles reference their publisher e.g. the one about Olivia Nuzzi includes “support HuffPost”, maybe there’s some way you could scrub these?
That’s a much better source, I’ve updated the spreadsheet accordingly, thanks!