teenager | mathematics enthusiast | MIT class of 2026 | vaguely Grey Triber | personal website: https://duck-master.github.io
Thank you for placing the limit orders! (You are “Martin Randall” if I understand correctly? I didn’t know you were a LessWronger!)
Thank you for building this! I have just signed up for it.
I’ve noticed that two of the three Manifold markets (Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City by end of 2023? and Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2023?) could use a few thousand mana in subsidies to reduce the chance of a false alarm, even though both are moderately well-traded already. (I’ve just bet both of them down, but I personally don’t have enough mana to feel comfortable subsidizing both.)
I think this issue could be fixed by lengthening the message of the phone calls (if it ever gets sent out) to also quote all the comments on the sentinel markets from the last ~week before the trigger time. The reason why is that I expect, if there were to ever be legitimate signs of a impending nuclear war, that people would leave plenty of comments on the relevant markets about these signs.
Update: I have tested negative for COVID-19 twice with self-tests, but since I still feel ill, I recommend that participants mask up anyways (it could be the common cold or flu, for all I know).
Thank you for the comment! I will not attend this since you stated that they check IDs at the door.
Two recent things that will likely affect this meetup:
Firstly, it will rain on Saturday around the time of the meetup, according to the weather forecast, particularly towards the planned end. Please bring umbrellas.
Secondly, I might have COVID-19 (which I suspect I caught on Thursday night). As such, I will wear a mask throughout the meetup, and I encourage all of you to do the same.
Thanks for your attention!
Question: I’m not old enough to drink alcohol, and I think this place is a bar—but would I even be allowed in the bar?
Here’s a manually sorted list of meetup places in the USA, somewhat arbitrarily/unscientifically grouped by region for even greater convenience. I spent the past hour on this, so please make good use of it. (Warning: this is a long comment.)
Massachusetts: Cambridge/Boston, Newton, Northampton
Maryland: Baltimore, College Park
New Jersey: Princeton
New York State: Java Village/Buffalo, Manhattan/New York City, Massapequa, Rochester
Pennsylvania: Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
Virginia: Charlottesville, Norfolk, Richmond
West Virginia: Charlestown
Michigan: Ann Arbor, Jackson
Illinois: Chicago, Urbana-Champaign
Indiana: South Bend, West Lafayette
Ohio: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo
Wisconsin: La Crosse, Madison, Stone Lake
Alabama: Huntsville, Tuscaloosa
Florida: Fort Lauderdale, Gulf Breeze, Miami, West Palm Beach
North Carolina: Asheville, Charlotte, Durham
Arizona: Phoenix, Tucson
Colorado: Boulder, Carbondale, Denver
Louisiana: New Orleans
Missouri: Kansas City, St. Louis
Nevada: Las Vegas
New Mexico: Taos
Texas: Austin, College Station, Dallas, Houston, Lubbock, San Antonio, Westlake
Utah: Logan, Salt Lake City
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Oregon: Corvallis, Eugene, Portland
Washington State: Bellingham, Redmond, Seattle
Bay Area/Silicon Valley: Berkeley/Oakland, San Francisco, Sunnyvale
Central Valley: Davis, Grass Valley, Sacramento
Southern California: El Centro, Los Angeles, Newport Beach, San Diego
This is a good suggestion! I’ll plan on walking in addition to talking during my upcoming meetup.
I’m in the park now; how can I identify you?
@Screwtape I can make this but there is a different thing I also want to go to at 7:30pm.
This is an excellent tip! I plan on using it from now on in my day-to-day life.
I haven’t used GPT-4 (I’m no accelerationist, and don’t want to bother with subscribing), but I have tried ChatGPT for this use. In my experience it’s useful for finding small cosmetic changes to make and fixing typos/small grammar mistakes, but I tend to avoid copy-pasting the result wholesale. Also I tend to work with texts much shorter than posts, since ChatGPT’s shortish context window starts becoming an issue for decently long posts.
Hello LessWrong! I’m duck_master. I’ve lurked around this website since roughly the start of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic but I have never really been super active as of yet (in fact I wrote my first ever post last month). I’ve been around on the AstralCodexTen comment section and on Discord, though, among a half-dozen other websites and platforms. Here’s my personal website (note: rarely updated) for your perusal.
I am a lifelong mathematics enthusiast and a current MIT student. (I’m majoring in mathematics and computer science; I added the latter part out of peer pressure since computer science is really taking off in these days.) I am particularly interested in axiomatic mathematics, formal theorem provers, and the P vs NP problem, though I typically won’t complain about anything mathematical as long as the relevant abstraction tower isn’t too high (and I could potentially pivot to applied math in the future). During the height of the pandemic in mid-2020, I initially “converted” to rationalism (previously I had been a Christian), but never really followed through and I actually became more irrational over the course of 2021 and 2022 (and not even in a metarational way, but purely in a my-life-is-getting-worse way). This year, I am hoping that I can connect with the rationalist and postrat communities more and be more systematic about my rationality practice.
Thank you for creating this website! I’ve signed up and started contributing.One tip I have for other users: many of the neurons are not about vague sentiments or topics (as in most of the auto-suggested explanations), but are rather about very specific keywords or turns of phrase. I’d even guess that many of the neurons are effectively regexes.Also apparently Neuronpedia cut me off for the day after I did ~20 neuron puzzles. If this limit could be raised for power users or something like that, it could potentially be beneficial.
This text shows another key point: not only should your posts be a surprise, but the kind of surprise that causes good actions.