Disregulation
I am feeling disregulated. And when I feel a thing I tend to endorse talking about it.
Some things I feel/do:
Last week was a high stress week. I spent a lot of time arguing on Twitter[1]
On Saturday, I felt like I’d been up drinking the night before, but had in fact gone to bed at a pretty standard time, sober.
Last night I could have gone to bed about midnight but someone wanted some graphs built for a post and so I stayed up to do that for them.
This morning I feel high anxiety, like if I had just started new ADHD medication
I don’t intend some deep insight from this, but I suspect many others may feel stressed and disregulated too.
- ^
I am never sure if Twitter is a good idea, but sometimes it feels like it. I suggested to Chana that she repost her team’s videos. One of those now has about 2m views. If anything, perhaps i should do more comms strike team stuff, but I sort of like the grounded feel of my fact-checking work.
On winning and being disliked
It is okay to be disliked.
But sometimes it is harmful.
The aim is, as always to win. To win and not lose. More good, less bad
Play the man, not the ball. Figure out where the man is going and then that will also make predictions about where the ball will be
Some inaccurate facts are more worth correcting than others
Some correction-based discussion will draw attention from other more important discussions
It sucks to have people say inaccurate things about me
On this specific case:
The most important discussion seems to be that poeple in AI companies are worried. Some are so worried they are quitting. The median AI researcher gives a 10% chance that AI will kill everyone or lead to similarly severe and permanent disempowerment.
Many discussions about whether rationalists are weird and culty etc are less important than this central one
That said, rumours are often built from embedded inaccurate claims. It can be worth dealing with inaccurate embedded claims before they take route. Some of the stuff about METR’s funding might be worth engaging with now before it becomes common (perhaps inaccurate) knowledge
I do not know how many of you have grown up being likeable. Personally, I have been known but not really liked, much of my life. I was not popular in primary schools and widely known as a Christian in secondary school and university. I was used to being seen as weird. I think it is at times tiring but survivable. I suspect some of the next few months are going to feel like that. I feel for people who aren’t used to it, especially those who find themselves the main character[1].
I would like to create space to acknowledge it can be hard and scary but that lashing out and defensiveness aren’t always the best strategic option.
When someone or some people are one of the top discussions on X/the internet. I would say METR is pretty much the main character right now.