Saul Munn
The Inner Ring by C. S. Lewis
thanks for writing this — also, some broad social encouragement for the practice of doing quick/informal lit reviews + posting them publicly! well done :)
that is… wild. thanks for sharing!
I think institutional market makers are basically not pricing [slow takeoff, or the expectation of one] in
why do you think they’re not pricing this in?
Really love this post. Thanks for writing it!
thanks for the feedback on the website. here’s the explanation we gave on the manifest announcement post:
In the week between LessOnline and Manifest, come hang out at Lighthaven with other attendees! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend casual workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the (again, literal) fire late into the night.
Summer Camp will be pretty lightweight: we’ll provide the space and the tools, and you & your fellow attendees will bring the discussions, workshops, tournaments, games, and whatever else you’re excited about organizing.
Here are the types of events you’ll see at Summer Camp:
Hackathons (or “Forecastathons”)
Organized discussions and workshops
Jam sessions and dance parties
Games of all kinds: social deception games, poker, MTG, jackbox, etc.
Campy activities: sardines, s’mores, singalongs
Multi-day intensive workshops, e.g. a CFAR-style workshop or a Quantitative Trading Bootcamp (Note: these may come at some extra cost, TBD by the organizers)
let me know if you have other questions.
Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
Retro funder profile & Manifund team recs (ACX Grants 2024: Impact Market)
I really enjoyed this — thank you for writing. I also think the updated version is a lot better than the previous version, and I appreciate the work you put in to update it. I’m really, really looking forward to the other posts in this sequence.
I’d also really enjoy a post that’s on this exact topic, but one that I’d feel comfortable sending to my mom or something, cf “Broad adverse selection (for poets).”
Invest in ACX Grants projects!
relevant: story-based decision-making
the name of this post was really confusing for me. i thought it would be about “how to stop defeating akrasia,” not “how to defeat akrasia by stopping.” consider renaming it to be a bit more clear?
the part at the end really reminded me of this piece by dr mciver: https://notebook.drmaciver.com/posts/2022-12-20-17:21.html
Things You’re Allowed to Do: University Edition
Explaining Impact Markets
+1 on Things You’re Allowed To Do, it’s really really great
here are some specific, random, generally small things that i do quite often:
sit on the floor. i notice myself wanting to sit, and i notice myself lacking a chair. fortunately, the floor is always there.
explicitly babble! i babble about thoughts that are bouncing around in my head, no matter the topic! open a new doc — docs.new works well, or whatever you use — set a 5 minute timer, and just babble. write whatever comes to mind.
message effective/competent people to cowork with them. i’m probably not the most effective/competent person you know, but feel free practice this with me!
board airplanes close to last, intentionally. i do this to avoid pushing through the lines, and to give myself an extra ~15 minutes to work in the airport terminal.
write out informal/babbled decision docs for big/important decisions. i’ve done this ~5 times over the last 6 months, and it both helps me during the decision (forces me to make my thoughts/worries/hopes concrete, lets me get quick thoughts/advice from friends, etc) and after the decision (i can remind myself why i originally made the decision, regardless of what ends up happening).
actually doing a lot of the things on this list
after or while doing something with someone else (a long conversation, a group project, a friendship, a ski trip, etc) asking them “what was the worst thing i did?”
waking myself up by intentionally getting water up my nose, then blowing it
pick a few things — about 3-8 — that look pretty good on a menu. ask siri to pick a random number, 1 through [number of things that looked good]. that’s now my default order; if i want, i can order something else, but i should have a pretty strong reason.
when sending someone a list of questions, send them in a accompanying accompanying list of the answers that are likely correct, so that they can just say “yes” or “actually no, it’s _____.” it cuts down on the amount of time they have to spend answering my questions significantly.
here are some more general mental TAPs that i’ve accidentally burned into my brain:
“gahhh, i wish [x] thing existed!” → “could i make [x]?”
“boy, [x] is annoying/bad/disruptive/generally a problem.” → “could i solve [x]?”
“now that i think about it, [person] is actually a really rare & awesome person.” → “could i text/call them right now?”
“i don’t like [x] about myself/my environment/the people i hang out with/my workspace/etc.” → “could i change [x]?”
“i hate that i always have to do [x].” → “what would happen if i didn’t do [x]? would i take damage? if so, would i take more damage than the damage i’m currently taking while forcing myself to do [x]?”
“ooh, i have to remember to [x].” → “should i set an alarm/reminder/calendar event about [x]?” (almost always: yes, you should)
“that’s a great idea.” → “should i quickly write a sentence about this down in my notes app? even just a sazen for my future self?”
“i should do [x].” → “do i have a concrete plan for doing [x] that’s worked in relevantly similar situations for me in the past? if not, how am i expecting to get [x] done?”
[in a meeting] “great, let’s make sure to get [x] done.” → “is there one clear person who’s owning this? who’s responsible if it doesn’t get done, and in charge of making sure it does get done? do i trust this person to actually get [x] done?”
“hmm, i’m realizing that i’ve built up a really big ugh field around [x].” → “[insert generic strategies for dealing with ugh fields; i think mine are mediocre, so would love to hear others’]”
notes:
most of the above was stolen from this thread
the actions above are questions that i ask myself, not concrete actions i force myself to do. they’re sorta like saying “hey, here’s a concrete action you could take — do you want to?” most of the time, my internal response is “nah, i’m good.” but sometimes, my internal response is “actually, yeah! let’s do this!” importantly, the questions are meant to reduce friction toward acting on your available options, not imply an obligation to those options.
Link Collection: Impact Markets
If you and your audience have smartphones, we suggest making use of a copy of this spreadsheet and google form.
are “spreadsheet” and “google form” meant to be linked to something?
thanks oli, and thanks for editing mine! appreciate the modding <3