[Question] How to best measure if and to what degree you’re too pessimistic or too optimistic?

I’ve been told a number of times that I’m too pessimistic about personal outcomes but I feel like I’m realist. So I’d like to test and measure it.

This post on Overconfident Pessimism appears to cover a lot of the same ground and certainly has illuminated for me the way that I become pessimistic or give low probability to tasks or processes I don’t yet understand how to do. However the article is chiefly about making predictions about innovation and technological advances, not things in the personal realm.

The problem appears to be predicting where one’s own behaviour is involved (although that didn’t stop Wilbur Wright).

Never the less, surely if I make a raft of predictions, assign how confident I am in each of them and it turns out I am overwhelmingly overconfidently pessimistic, then it would confirm the “I am a pessimistic hypothesis” and vice versa for someone who is considered to be too optimistic, right?

No comments.