What percent of everett branches is Trump dead since yesterday morning?
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Political dialogue is a game with a meta. The same groups of people with the same values in a different environment will produce a different socially determined ruleset for rhetorical debate. The arguments we see as common are a product of the current debate meta, and the debate meta changes all the time.
I think there’s a small expected value difference between the two candidates, but I am simply too disgusted to care. We need to overthrow the government or primary systems and replace it something that manages offer us people who are under the age of 75.
I’m not voting for either presidential candidate this year. I know my vote doesn’t mattter, but I don’t care. What we have is indistinguishable from soft authoritarianism, and I’d prefer not to lend any legitimacy to a “democracy” that gives me only two choices for President, one of whom is literally senile and cannot articulate his own policy positions on a podium.
It doesn’t feel like I’m getting smarter. It feels like everybody else is getting dumber. I feel as smart as I was when I was 14.
Francois seems almost to assume that just because an algorithm takes millions or billions of datapoints to train, that means its output is just “memorization”. In fact it seems to me that the learning algorithms just work pretty slowly, and that the thing that’s learned after those millions or billions of tries is the actual generative concepts.
I think most observers are underestimating how popular Nick Fuentes will be in about a year among conservatives. Would love to operationalize this belief and create some manifold markets about it. Some ideas:
Will Nick Fuentes have over 1,000,000 Twitter followers by 2025?
Will Nick Fuentes have a public debate with [any of Ben Shapiro/Charlie Kirk/etc.] by 2026?
Will Nick Fuentes have another public meeting with a national level politician (I.e. congressman or above) by 2026?
Will any national level politicians endorse Nick Fuentes’ content or claim they are a fan of his by 2026?
Also related, are there going to be any social events/activities aimed at singles so I can try some awkward attempts at meeting/flirting and getting rejected in an efficient manner?
I’m sure you’ll have fun in general, but you would literally have a better chance of finding a girlfriend at a magic the gathering tournament.
It might very well be cultural. As an American I literally cannot imagine doing either of those things with a woman I am not in a relationship with. I’ve never seen anybody else do them either.
Manifold Love: pro-tip: if a woman measures her hand against yours, this is almost always flirtation.
Totally did not know this. Is this true? [10% react x 2]
A little taken aback by this response. It’s not just flirting, it’s outright romantic. Asking this is like asking if a woman resting their head on a mans chest and purring is “flirting”. I didn’t realize this was a common experience for guys not in a relationship with the particular woman.
Also my impression is that business or political assassinations exist to this day in many countries; a little searching suggests Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, possibly Nigeria, and more.
Oh definitely. In Mexico in particular business pairs up with organized crime all of the time to strong-arm competitors. But this happens when there’s an “organized crime” tycoons can cheaply (in terms of risk) pair up with. Also, OP asked about why companies don’t assassinate whistlebowers all the time specifically.
a lot of hunter-gatherer people had to be able to fight to the death, so I don’t buy that it’s entirely about the human constitution
That was not criminal murder by the standards of the time. Arguably a lot of gang murders committed in the United States are committed by people not capable or willing to go out and murder people on their own.
Robin Hanson has apparently asked the same thing. It seems like such a bizarre question to me:
Most people do not have the constitution or agency for criminal murder
Most companies do not have secrets large enough that assassinations would reduce the size of their problems on expectation
Most people who work at large companies don’t really give a shit if that company gets fined or into legal trouble, and so they don’t have the motivation to personally risk anything organizing murders to prevent lawsuits
Either would just change everything, so any prediction ten years out you basically have to prepend “if AI or gene editing doesn’t change everything”
We will witness a resurgent alt-right movement soon, this time facing a dulled institutional backlash compared to what kept it from growing during the mid-2010s. I could see Nick Fuentes becoming a Congressman or at least a major participant in Republican party politics within the next 10 years if AI/Gene Editing doesn’t change much.
I seriously doubt on priors that Boeing corporate is murdering employees.
Why aren’t males way smarter than females on average? Males have ~13% higher cortical neuron density and 11% heavier brains...
Men are smarter than women, by about 2-4 points on average. Men are also larger, and so need bigger brains to compensate for their size (though this does not explain the entire difference you cite).
I’m white.
As a useless anecdote, I took Lumina in November of last year. I generally drink a lot, and have commented on hangovers getting 2-4x worse in the past few months to friends, before reading this post or knowing anything about your hypothesis. This has occurred only in the last few months and I’m 24 years old.
In the last ten days we’ve had the trump assassination attempt, crowdstrike global computer outage, and the Joe Biden dropout