Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019

Stuart_Armstrong2 Apr 2020 12:07 UTC
26 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

EDIT: To help assessing, go here. Cheers!

Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil’s predictions for 2009, in his 1999 book “The Age of Spiritual Machines”. The results were mixed—I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own self-evaluation:

Following Gwern’s suggestion, let’s do the same for his 2019 predictions.

Since many people have extra time on their hands, for some odd reason, I’m asking for volunteers to do this assessment. You’ll be getting a certain number of predictions (how many is up to you) and giving an assessment of their correctness on a five point scale of “True”, “Weakly True”, “Cannot Decide”, “Weakly False”, and “False”.

So, add a comment here if you’d like to volunteer for this assessment, or know a person/​group who might want to.

Cheers!

EDIT: I’ve now split Kurzweil’s 2019 predictions into 105 separate individual predictions.

Stuart_Armstrong2 Apr 2020 12:07 UTC
26 points
21 comments1 min readLW link