[Question] Do bond yield curve inversions really indicate there is likely to be a recession?

I’ve seen some re­cent com­men­tary that the bond yield curve in­di­cates there is likely to be a re­ces­sion in the next year.

For ex­am­ple, from the New York fed:
https://​www.newyork­fed.org/​…/​r…/​cap­i­tal_mar­kets/​Prob_Rec.pdf

and com­men­tary:

https://​​www.newyork­fed.org/​​me­di­al­ibrary/​​me­dia/​​re­search/​​cap­i­tal_mar­kets/​​Prob_Rec.pdf
https://​www.wsj.com/​…/​gov­ern­ment-bond-mar­ket-mea­sure-says-r…

I’m not sure how much stock to put into this, or for that mat­ter what ac­tions I should take if I ex­pected there would be a re­ces­sion in the next year.

Two part ques­tion:

  • How much con­fi­dence should I have in the yield curve in­ver­sion sig­nal that a re­ces­sion would hap­pen by July 1st, 2020?

  • If I ex­pected there would be a re­ces­sion, what ac­tions make sense to take as a per­sonal in­vestor? Or even more gen­er­ally?

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