I’ve seen some recent commentary that the bond yield curve indicates there is likely to be a recession in the next year.
For example, from the New York fed:https://www.newyorkfed.org/…/r…/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf
I’m not sure how much stock to put into this, or for that matter what actions I should take if I expected there would be a recession in the next year.
Two part question:
How much confidence should I have in the yield curve inversion signal that a recession would happen by July 1st, 2020?
If I expected there would be a recession, what actions make sense to take as a personal investor? Or even more generally?