Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong

Ought and LessWrong are ex­cited to launch an em­bed­ded in­ter­ac­tive pre­dic­tion fea­ture. You can now em­bed bi­nary ques­tions into LessWrong posts and com­ments. Hover over the wid­get to see other peo­ple’s pre­dic­tions, and click to add your own.

Try it out

How to use this

Create a question

  1. Go to elicit.org/​bi­nary and cre­ate your ques­tion by typ­ing it into the field at the top

  2. Click on the ques­tion ti­tle, and click the copy but­ton next to the ti­tle – it looks like this:

  1. Paste the URL into your LW post or com­ment. It’ll look like this in the ed­i­tor:

Make a prediction

  1. Click on the wid­get to add your own prediction

  2. Click on your pre­dic­tion line again to delete it

Motivation

We hope em­bed­ded pre­dic­tions can prompt read­ers and au­thors to:

  1. Ac­tively en­gage with posts. By mak­ing pre­dic­tions as they read, peo­ple have to stop and think pe­ri­od­i­cally about how much they agree with the au­thor.

  2. Distill claims. For writ­ers, in­te­grat­ing pre­dic­tions challenges them to think more con­cretely about their claims and how read­ers might dis­agree.

  3. Com­mu­ni­cate un­cer­tainty. Rather than just stat­ing claims, writ­ers can also com­mu­ni­cate a con­fi­dence level.

  4. Col­lect pre­dic­tions. As a reader, you can build up a per­sonal database of pre­dic­tions as you browse LessWrong.

  5. Get gran­u­lar feed­back. Writ­ers can get feed­back on their con­tent at a more gran­u­lar level than com­ments or up­votes.

By work­ing with LessWrong on this, Ought hopes to make fore­cast­ing eas­ier and more preva­lent. As we learn more about how peo­ple think about the fu­ture, we can use Elicit to au­to­mate larger parts of the work­flow and thought pro­cess un­til we end up with end-to-end au­to­mated rea­son­ing that peo­ple en­dorse. Check out our blog post to see de­mos and more con­text.

Some ex­am­ples of how to use this

  1. To make spe­cific pre­dic­tions, like in Zvi’s post on COVID predictions

  2. To ex­press cre­dences on claims like those in Daniel Koko­ta­jlo’s soft take­off post

  3. Beyond LessWrong – if you want to in­te­grate this into your blog or have other ideas for places you’d want to use this, let us know!