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Betting

TagLast edit: 16 Apr 2020 20:30 UTC by Ruby

Betting is staking money (or some other form of value) on one beliefs. It is considered rationally virtuous to bet on one’s beliefs, as the real stakes force one to actually consider precisely what they anticipate will really happen.

See also:

Even Odds

Scott Garrabrant12 Jan 2014 7:24 UTC
75 points
47 comments3 min readLW link

The Kelly Criterion

Zvi15 Oct 2018 21:20 UTC
101 points
24 comments3 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners

jefftk3 Jan 2021 21:20 UTC
415 points
35 comments2 min readLW link1 review
(www.jefftk.com)

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Bet Your Friends to Be More Right

katydee8 Nov 2013 21:12 UTC
11 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Bet­ting with Manda­tory Post-Mortem

abramdemski24 Jun 2020 20:04 UTC
104 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

A con­crete bet offer to those with short AGI timelines

9 Apr 2022 21:41 UTC
199 points
120 comments5 min readLW link

Self-driv­ing car bets

paulfchristiano29 Jul 2023 18:10 UTC
230 points
42 comments5 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

The Bayesian Tyrant

abramdemski20 Aug 2020 0:08 UTC
141 points
21 comments6 min readLW link1 review

UFO Bet­ting: Put Up or Shut Up

RatsWrongAboutUAP13 Jun 2023 4:05 UTC
231 points
207 comments2 min readLW link

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC
47 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Free Money at Pre­dic­tIt?

Zvi26 Sep 2019 16:10 UTC
49 points
17 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Con­ced­ing a short timelines bet early

Matthew Barnett16 Mar 2023 21:49 UTC
132 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Of ar­gu­ments and wagers

paulfchristiano10 Jan 2020 22:20 UTC
52 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

A method for fair bar­gain­ing over odds in 2 player bets!

Agrippa Kellum11 Jan 2020 1:18 UTC
12 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Bets and updating

Eigil Rischel7 Oct 2019 23:06 UTC
31 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion does not ex­plain peo­ple’s bet­ting behaviours

Stuart_Armstrong20 Aug 2012 12:38 UTC
28 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

Bet or up­date: fix­ing the will-to-wa­ger assumption

cousin_it7 Jun 2017 15:03 UTC
62 points
61 comments1 min readLW link

Buy In­surance—Bet Against Yourself

MBlume26 Nov 2010 4:48 UTC
42 points
69 comments2 min readLW link

The Ineffi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

lsusr24 Apr 2020 7:33 UTC
70 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush?

Wei Dai19 Jul 2014 10:08 UTC
70 points
115 comments1 min readLW link

Kelly bettors

DanielFilan13 Nov 2018 0:40 UTC
24 points
3 comments10 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Kelly Bet on Everything

Jacob Falkovich10 Jul 2020 2:48 UTC
101 points
20 comments5 min readLW link2 reviews

Who wants to be a Million­aire?

Bucky1 Feb 2019 14:02 UTC
29 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

The Apoca­lypse Bet

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Aug 2007 17:23 UTC
49 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

Should you an­nounce your bets pub­li­cly?

Ege Erdil4 Jul 2023 0:11 UTC
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Note­book for gen­er­at­ing fore­cast­ing bets

Amandango26 Sep 2020 20:36 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

sapphire17 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
42 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly Bet or Up­date?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 20:26 UTC
50 points
23 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Nov 2020 12:51 UTC
16 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo7 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC
43 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Best effort beliefs

Adam Zerner21 Oct 2023 22:05 UTC
14 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Calcu­lat­ing Kelly

abramdemski22 Feb 2021 17:32 UTC
36 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are for Out­comes Beyond Our Control

lsusr9 Feb 2022 9:54 UTC
56 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Bet on Rare Un­de­sir­able Out­comes when Seed­ing a Pre­dic­tion Market

lsusr10 Feb 2022 0:20 UTC
33 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Re­ward Good Bets That Had Bad Outcomes

Neel Nanda22 Feb 2022 0:25 UTC
44 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

How to place a bet on the end of the world

DirectedEvolution20 Apr 2022 18:24 UTC
26 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

The Ca­plan-Yud­kowsky End-of-the-World Bet Scheme Doesn’t Ac­tu­ally Work

lsusr25 Feb 2023 18:57 UTC
6 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity

Orborde3 Nov 2019 23:31 UTC
32 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

How the Equiv­a­lent Bet Test Ac­tu­ally Works

Erich_Grunewald18 Dec 2021 11:17 UTC
4 points
1 comment4 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Wanna bet?

ThomasJ9 Oct 2022 21:26 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

ata12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC
136 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

Yet more UFO Bet­ting: Put Up or Shut Up

MoreRatsWrongReUAP8 Aug 2023 17:50 UTC
10 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

A Story of Kings and Spies

Joshua_Blaine11 Jun 2014 23:54 UTC
38 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] How to Le­gally Con­duct “Ra­tion­al­ist Bets” in Cal­ifor­nia?

Davis_Kingsley9 Feb 2022 8:16 UTC
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

money ≠ value

stonefly30 Apr 2023 17:47 UTC
2 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

My Bet Log

philh19 Mar 2020 21:10 UTC
16 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Austin LW meetup notes: The FTX Affair

jchan22 Nov 2022 14:01 UTC
20 points
3 comments16 min readLW link

On­go­ing free money at PredictIt

knite11 Nov 2020 4:06 UTC
12 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Spirits vs Terms as Ar­bi­tra­tion Norms

nonveumann18 Mar 2021 5:07 UTC
12 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristiano26 Feb 2022 4:50 UTC
166 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Recom­men­da­tion for a good in­ter­na­tional event bet­ting site like pre­dic­tit.org

df fd7 Dec 2020 9:09 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[link] Bet­ting on bad futures

fortyeridania22 Sep 2012 15:50 UTC
27 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

“New­ton’s laws” of finance

pchvykov21 Jun 2024 9:41 UTC
7 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cal Para­doxes are Para­doxes of Prob­a­bil­ity Theory

Ape in the coat6 Dec 2023 8:16 UTC
50 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ism and so­cial rationalism

philosophybear10 Mar 2023 23:20 UTC
17 points
5 comments10 min readLW link
(philosophybear.substack.com)

En­courag­ing New Users To Bet On Their Beliefs

YafahEdelman18 Apr 2023 22:10 UTC
49 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly isn’t (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

SimonM23 Feb 2021 12:12 UTC
35 points
41 comments4 min readLW link

Kelly *is* (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

abramdemski1 Mar 2021 20:02 UTC
99 points
26 comments12 min readLW link1 review

A non-log­a­r­ith­mic ar­gu­ment for Kelly

Bunthut4 Mar 2021 16:21 UTC
24 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly Bet­ting Discussion

Raemon12 Mar 2021 0:10 UTC
20 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The EMH is False—Spe­cific Strong Evidence

sapphire18 Mar 2021 18:38 UTC
61 points
83 comments6 min readLW link

Vio­lat­ing the EMH—Pre­dic­tion Markets

sapphire28 Mar 2021 4:05 UTC
40 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Ex­pected Value vs. Ex­pected Growth

tom-pollak5 Jun 2022 18:48 UTC
3 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

On Robin Han­son’s Board Game

Zvi8 Sep 2018 17:10 UTC
49 points
15 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Art of the Overbet

Zvi19 Oct 2018 14:00 UTC
55 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

1001 Pre­dic­tionBook Nights

gwern8 Oct 2011 16:04 UTC
72 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

Tech­niques for prob­a­bil­ity estimates

Scott Alexander4 Jan 2011 23:38 UTC
107 points
60 comments7 min readLW link

Bet Pay­off 1: OpenPhil/​MIRI Grant Increase

Ben Pace9 Nov 2017 18:31 UTC
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

An in­vest­ment anal­ogy for Pas­cal’s Mugging

[deleted]9 Dec 2014 7:50 UTC
9 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

I bet $500 on AI win­ning the IMO gold medal by 2026

azsantosk11 May 2023 14:46 UTC
37 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyer14 Jul 2020 7:24 UTC
198 points
49 comments7 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing two tasks in Gary Mar­cus’s AGI challenge

Bill Benzon9 Jun 2022 18:31 UTC
12 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook.com—Track your calibration

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2009 0:08 UTC
41 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

Buy Now Or For­ever Hold Your Peace

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Feb 2008 21:42 UTC
39 points
58 comments1 min readLW link

A (some­what beta) site for em­bed­ding bet­ting odds in your writing

Optimization Process2 Jul 2021 1:10 UTC
51 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(biatob.com)

Mitt Rom­ney’s $10,000 bet

MileyCyrus12 Dec 2011 2:14 UTC
50 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

Zero­ing Out

Zvi5 Nov 2017 16:10 UTC
45 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Com­pet­i­tive Truth-Seeking

SatvikBeri1 Nov 2017 12:06 UTC
62 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Alpha

Erich_Grunewald1 Jul 2023 16:05 UTC
65 points
2 comments14 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)
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