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AI Timelines

TagLast edit: 16 Jul 2020 10:16 UTC by Ben Pace

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it’s the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the speed of AI progress after human-level AI is developed.

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya Cotra18 Sep 2020 23:47 UTC
214 points
56 comments1 min readLW link1 review

Biol­ogy-In­spired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2021 22:35 UTC
165 points
142 comments65 min readLW link1 review

My cur­rent frame­work for think­ing about AGI timelines

zhukeepa30 Mar 2020 1:23 UTC
107 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Why I think strong gen­eral AI is com­ing soon

porby28 Sep 2022 5:40 UTC
325 points
139 comments34 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
134 points
98 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N performance

Lukas Finnveden18 Dec 2020 21:41 UTC
108 points
31 comments22 min readLW link1 review

hu­man psy­chol­in­guists: a crit­i­cal appraisal

nostalgebraist31 Dec 2019 0:20 UTC
180 points
59 comments16 min readLW link2 reviews
(nostalgebraist.tumblr.com)

Jeff Hawk­ins on neu­ro­mor­phic AGI within 20 years

Steven Byrnes15 Jul 2019 19:16 UTC
170 points
24 comments12 min readLW link

Shul­man and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

3 Dec 2021 20:05 UTC
90 points
16 comments20 min readLW link

There’s No Fire Alarm for Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Oct 2017 21:38 UTC
142 points
72 comments25 min readLW link

Con­jec­ture in­ter­nal sur­vey: AGI timelines and prob­a­bil­ity of hu­man ex­tinc­tion from ad­vanced AI

Maris Sala22 May 2023 14:31 UTC
154 points
5 comments3 min readLW link
(www.conjecture.dev)

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Mar 2021 13:30 UTC
224 points
86 comments12 min readLW link2 reviews

Grokking “Fore­cast­ing TAI with biolog­i­cal an­chors”

anson.ho6 Jun 2022 18:58 UTC
39 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
140 points
19 comments14 min readLW link1 review

AI timeline pre­dic­tions: are we get­ting bet­ter?

Stuart_Armstrong17 Aug 2012 7:07 UTC
79 points
81 comments4 min readLW link

Are we in an AI over­hang?

Andy Jones27 Jul 2020 12:48 UTC
259 points
106 comments4 min readLW link

The un­ex­pected difficulty of com­par­ing AlphaS­tar to humans

Richard Korzekwa 18 Sep 2019 2:20 UTC
145 points
36 comments26 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Devel­op­men­tal Stages of GPTs

orthonormal26 Jul 2020 22:03 UTC
140 points
71 comments7 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Would (my­opic) gen­eral pub­lic good pro­duc­ers sig­nifi­cantly ac­cel­er­ate the de­vel­op­ment of AGI?

mako yass2 Mar 2022 23:47 UTC
25 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel Kokotajlo6 Aug 2021 16:14 UTC
473 points
150 comments16 min readLW link1 review

Clar­ify­ing and pre­dict­ing AGI

Richard_Ngo4 May 2023 15:55 UTC
129 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] To what ex­tent is GPT-3 ca­pa­ble of rea­son­ing?

TurnTrout20 Jul 2020 17:10 UTC
70 points
73 comments16 min readLW link

AlphaS­tar: Im­pres­sive for RL progress, not for AGI progress

orthonormal2 Nov 2019 1:50 UTC
113 points
58 comments2 min readLW link1 review

Frac­tional progress es­ti­mates for AI timelines and im­plied re­source requirements

15 Jul 2021 18:43 UTC
55 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habryka12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC
44 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over

Daniel Kokotajlo22 Oct 2020 10:41 UTC
145 points
32 comments2 min readLW link1 review

Can you get AGI from a Trans­former?

Steven Byrnes23 Jul 2020 15:27 UTC
115 points
40 comments12 min readLW link

Re­view of “Fun with +12 OOMs of Com­pute”

28 Mar 2021 14:55 UTC
63 points
21 comments8 min readLW link1 review

Up­dat­ing my AI timelines

Matthew Barnett5 Dec 2022 20:46 UTC
143 points
50 comments2 min readLW link

Two-year up­date on my per­sonal AI timelines

Ajeya Cotra2 Aug 2022 23:07 UTC
288 points
60 comments16 min readLW link

Re­view Re­port of David­son on Take­off Speeds (2023)

Trent Kannegieter22 Dec 2023 18:48 UTC
32 points
11 comments38 min readLW link

The next AI win­ter will be due to en­ergy costs

hippke24 Nov 2020 16:53 UTC
70 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

25 Nov 2021 16:45 UTC
119 points
95 comments68 min readLW link

PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in “Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N perfor­mance”

Lukas Finnveden30 May 2023 18:33 UTC
55 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

What do ML re­searchers think about AI in 2022?

KatjaGrace4 Aug 2022 15:40 UTC
219 points
33 comments3 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Deep­mind’s Gato: Gen­er­al­ist Agent

Daniel Kokotajlo12 May 2022 16:01 UTC
165 points
62 comments1 min readLW link

The AI Timelines Scam

jessicata11 Jul 2019 2:52 UTC
108 points
105 comments7 min readLW link3 reviews
(unstableontology.com)

Hu­man-level Di­plo­macy was my fire alarm

Lao Mein23 Nov 2022 10:05 UTC
54 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Was Re­leas­ing Claude-3 Net-Nega­tive?

Logan Riggs27 Mar 2024 17:41 UTC
42 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

GPT-2005: A con­ver­sa­tion with ChatGPT (fea­tur­ing semi-func­tional Wolfram Alpha plu­gin!)

Lone Pine24 Mar 2023 14:03 UTC
19 points
0 comments22 min readLW link

Ex­ces­sive AI growth-rate yields lit­tle so­cio-eco­nomic benefit.

Cleo Nardo4 Apr 2023 19:13 UTC
27 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

n=3 AI Risk Quick Math and Reasoning

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)7 Apr 2023 20:27 UTC
6 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Paul Chris­ti­ano on Dwarkesh Podcast

ESRogs3 Nov 2023 22:13 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)

AI Timelines

10 Nov 2023 5:28 UTC
249 points
74 comments51 min readLW link

Brains and back­prop: a key timeline crux

jacobjacob9 Mar 2018 22:13 UTC
37 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

AI timeline pre­dic­tion data

Stuart_Armstrong22 Aug 2012 11:49 UTC
26 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] How does OpenAI’s lan­guage model af­fect our AI timeline es­ti­mates?

jimrandomh15 Feb 2019 3:11 UTC
50 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

SSC Jour­nal Club: AI Timelines

Scott Alexander8 Jun 2017 19:00 UTC
15 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

A model I use when mak­ing plans to re­duce AI x-risk

Ben Pace19 Jan 2018 0:21 UTC
69 points
39 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Prob­a­bil­ity that other ar­chi­tec­tures will scale as well as Trans­form­ers?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Jul 2020 19:36 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

OpenAI an­nounces GPT-3

gwern29 May 2020 1:49 UTC
67 points
23 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

GPT-3: a dis­ap­point­ing paper

nostalgebraist29 May 2020 19:06 UTC
65 points
43 comments8 min readLW link1 review

Uber Self-Driv­ing Crash

jefftk7 Nov 2019 15:00 UTC
110 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What hap­pens to var­i­ance as neu­ral net­work train­ing is scaled? What does it im­ply about “lot­tery tick­ets”?

abramdemski28 Jul 2020 20:22 UTC
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

What 2025 looks like

Ruby1 May 2023 22:53 UTC
75 points
17 comments15 min readLW link

On the Loeb­ner Silver Prize (a Tur­ing test)

hold_my_fish7 May 2023 0:39 UTC
18 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

AI Align­ment 2018-19 Review

Rohin Shah28 Jan 2020 2:19 UTC
126 points
6 comments35 min readLW link

Be­fore smart AI, there will be many mediocre or spe­cial­ized AIs

Lukas Finnveden26 May 2023 1:38 UTC
47 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

How rapidly are GPUs im­prov­ing in price perfor­mance?

gallabytes25 Nov 2018 19:54 UTC
31 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(mediangroup.org)

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
38 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

My Align­ment Timeline

NicholasKross3 Jul 2023 1:04 UTC
22 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Sim­plified bio-an­chors for up­per bounds on AI timelines

Fabien Roger15 Jul 2023 18:15 UTC
20 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Biolog­i­cal An­chors: The Trick that Might or Might Not Work

Scott Alexander12 Aug 2023 0:53 UTC
90 points
3 comments33 min readLW link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

Vermillion14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
28 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo5 Nov 2020 19:56 UTC
28 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo7 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC
43 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Cruxes for overhang

Zach Stein-Perlman14 Sep 2023 17:00 UTC
12 points
5 comments6 min readLW link
(blog.aiimpacts.org)

Fo­cus­ing your im­pact on short vs long TAI timelines

kuhanj30 Sep 2023 19:34 UTC
4 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

Daniel Kokotajlo16 Nov 2020 14:05 UTC
22 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Nov 2020 12:51 UTC
16 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on Robin Han­son’s AI Im­pacts interview

Steven Byrnes24 Nov 2019 1:40 UTC
25 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Com­ments on “The Sin­gu­lar­ity is Nowhere Near”

Steven Byrnes16 Mar 2021 23:59 UTC
50 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Why am I still al­ive? (a time cap­sule)

Spiritus Dei17 Oct 2023 16:19 UTC
−7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Jan 2021 12:08 UTC
194 points
86 comments14 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal Models of Progress?

abramdemski16 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is driv­ing worth the risk?

Adam Zerner11 May 2021 5:04 UTC
28 points
29 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What will the twen­ties look like if AGI is 30 years away?

Daniel Kokotajlo13 Jul 2021 8:14 UTC
29 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Brain-in­spired AGI and the “life­time an­chor”

Steven Byrnes29 Sep 2021 13:09 UTC
65 points
16 comments13 min readLW link

The Ex­trap­o­la­tion Problem

lsusr10 Oct 2021 5:11 UTC
26 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Com­ments on Car­l­smith’s “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

So8res13 Nov 2021 4:29 UTC
138 points
14 comments40 min readLW link1 review

Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Nov 2021 19:35 UTC
195 points
176 comments60 min readLW link1 review

More Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

6 Dec 2021 20:33 UTC
91 points
28 comments40 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion on tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing and gradualism

9 Dec 2021 21:23 UTC
108 points
30 comments31 min readLW link

My Overview of the AI Align­ment Land­scape: A Bird’s Eye View

Neel Nanda15 Dec 2021 23:44 UTC
127 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Thoughts on AGI safety from the top

jylin042 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
36 points
3 comments32 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus launches con­test for es­says with quan­ti­ta­tive pre­dic­tions about AI

8 Feb 2022 16:07 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

[In­tro to brain-like-AGI safety] 3. Two sub­sys­tems: Learn­ing & Steering

Steven Byrnes9 Feb 2022 13:09 UTC
93 points
3 comments24 min readLW link

A com­ment on Ajeya Co­tra’s draft re­port on AI timelines

Matthew Barnett24 Feb 2022 0:41 UTC
74 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

Wargam­ing AGI Development

ryan_b19 Mar 2022 17:59 UTC
37 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

[Link] Train­ing Com­pute-Op­ti­mal Large Lan­guage Models

nostalgebraist31 Mar 2022 18:01 UTC
51 points
23 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

A con­crete bet offer to those with short AGI timelines

9 Apr 2022 21:41 UTC
198 points
116 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What’s a good prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tion fam­ily (e.g. “log-nor­mal”) to use for AGI timelines?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)13 Apr 2022 4:45 UTC
9 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

For ev­ery choice of AGI difficulty, con­di­tion­ing on grad­ual take-off im­plies shorter timelines.

Francis Rhys Ward21 Apr 2022 7:44 UTC
31 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What are the num­bers in mind for the su­per-short AGI timelines so many long-ter­mists are alarmed about?

Evan_Gaensbauer21 Apr 2022 23:32 UTC
22 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­am­in­ing Evolu­tion as an Up­per Bound for AGI Timelines

meanderingmoose24 Apr 2022 19:08 UTC
5 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

[Question] To what ex­tent is your AGI timeline bi­modal or oth­er­wise “bumpy”?

jchan16 May 2022 17:42 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The Prob­lem With The Cur­rent State of AGI Definitions

Yitz29 May 2022 13:58 UTC
40 points
22 comments8 min readLW link

The Bio An­chors Forecast

Ansh Radhakrishnan2 Jun 2022 1:32 UTC
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

I’m try­ing out “as­ter­oid mind­set”

Alex_Altair3 Jun 2022 13:35 UTC
90 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

Grokking “Semi-in­for­ma­tive pri­ors over AI timelines”

anson.ho12 Jun 2022 22:17 UTC
15 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing Epoch: A re­search or­ga­ni­za­tion in­ves­ti­gat­ing the road to Trans­for­ma­tive AI

27 Jun 2022 13:55 UTC
96 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

[Question] How much to op­ti­mize for the short-timelines sce­nario?

SoerenMind21 Jul 2022 10:47 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Timelines ex­pla­na­tion post part 1 of ?

Nathan Helm-Burger12 Aug 2022 16:13 UTC
10 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strate­gi­cally Rele­vant To Alignment

johnswentworth23 Aug 2022 20:15 UTC
47 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

Alex Lawsen On Fore­cast­ing AI Progress

Michaël Trazzi6 Sep 2022 9:32 UTC
18 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(theinsideview.ai)

Safety timelines: How long will it take to solve al­ign­ment?

19 Sep 2022 12:53 UTC
37 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Two rea­sons we might be closer to solv­ing al­ign­ment than it seems

24 Sep 2022 20:00 UTC
57 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Do an­thropic con­sid­er­a­tions un­der­cut the evolu­tion an­chor from the Bio An­chors re­port?

Ege Erdil1 Oct 2022 20:02 UTC
22 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a cul­ture over­hang?

Aleksi Liimatainen3 Oct 2022 7:26 UTC
18 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

A re­view of the Bio-An­chors report

jylin043 Oct 2022 10:27 UTC
45 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

AI Timelines via Cu­mu­la­tive Op­ti­miza­tion Power: Less Long, More Short

jacob_cannell6 Oct 2022 0:21 UTC
139 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

When re­port­ing AI timelines, be clear who you’re defer­ring to

Sam Clarke10 Oct 2022 14:24 UTC
38 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Is full self-driv­ing an AGI-com­plete prob­lem?

kraemahz10 Nov 2022 2:04 UTC
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Disagree­ment with bio an­chors that lead to shorter timelines

Marius Hobbhahn16 Nov 2022 14:40 UTC
75 points
17 comments7 min readLW link1 review

Planes are still decades away from dis­plac­ing most bird jobs

guzey25 Nov 2022 16:49 UTC
159 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Meta AI an­nounces Cicero: Hu­man-Level Di­plo­macy play (with di­alogue)

Jacy Reese Anthis22 Nov 2022 16:50 UTC
93 points
64 comments1 min readLW link
(www.science.org)

A Ten­ta­tive Timeline of The Near Fu­ture (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability

Yitz5 Dec 2022 5:33 UTC
26 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

How im­por­tant are ac­cu­rate AI timelines for the op­ti­mal spend­ing sched­ule on AI risk in­ter­ven­tions?

Tristan Cook16 Dec 2022 16:05 UTC
27 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

2022 was the year AGI ar­rived (Just don’t call it that)

Logan Zoellner4 Jan 2023 15:19 UTC
101 points
59 comments3 min readLW link

Microsoft Plans to In­vest $10B in OpenAI; $3B In­vested to Date | For­tune

DragonGod12 Jan 2023 3:55 UTC
23 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(fortune.com)

Thoughts on hard­ware /​ com­pute re­quire­ments for AGI

Steven Byrnes24 Jan 2023 14:03 UTC
52 points
30 comments22 min readLW link

What a com­pute-cen­tric frame­work says about AI take­off speeds

Tom Davidson23 Jan 2023 4:02 UTC
167 points
29 comments16 min readLW link

Liter­a­ture re­view of TAI timelines

27 Jan 2023 20:07 UTC
35 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

Are short timelines ac­tu­ally bad?

joshc5 Feb 2023 21:21 UTC
56 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing timelines

Zach Stein-Perlman10 Mar 2023 16:30 UTC
7 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Con­ced­ing a short timelines bet early

Matthew Barnett16 Mar 2023 21:49 UTC
132 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What achieve­ments have peo­ple claimed will be warn­ing signs for AGI?

Richard_Ngo1 Apr 2020 10:24 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Re­port on Fron­tier Model Training

YafahEdelman30 Aug 2023 20:02 UTC
121 points
21 comments21 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

I Tripped and Be­came GPT! (And How This Up­dated My Timelines)

Frankophone1 Sep 2022 17:56 UTC
31 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Deep­mind Plans for Rat-Level AI

moridinamael18 Aug 2016 16:26 UTC
34 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

10 Jan 2023 16:03 UTC
23 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Build­ing Your Own ChatGPT Clone: A Step-by-Step Guide

beckjenner13 Sep 2023 6:56 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link
(allinonecluster.com)

How should Deep­Mind’s Chin­chilla re­vise our AI fore­casts?

Cleo Nardo15 Sep 2022 17:54 UTC
35 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

A con­ver­sa­tion with Pi, a con­ver­sa­tional AI.

Spiritus Dei15 Sep 2023 23:13 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Alibaba Group re­leases Qwen, 14B pa­ram­e­ter LLM

nikola28 Sep 2023 0:12 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(qianwen-res.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com)

Grad­ual take­off, fast failure

Max H16 Mar 2023 22:02 UTC
15 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Scale Was All We Needed, At First

Gabriel Mukobi14 Feb 2024 1:49 UTC
262 points
31 comments8 min readLW link
(aiacumen.substack.com)

Im­pli­ca­tions of Quan­tum Com­put­ing for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Align­ment Research

22 Aug 2019 10:33 UTC
24 points
3 comments13 min readLW link

Ex­pec­ta­tions for Gem­ini: hope­fully not a big deal

Maxime Riché2 Oct 2023 15:38 UTC
15 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there an anal­y­sis of the com­mon con­sid­er­a­tion that split­ting an AI lab into two (e.g. the found­ing of An­thropic) speeds up the de­vel­op­ment of TAI and there­fore in­creases AI x-risk?

tchauvin16 Mar 2023 14:16 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Against the weird­ness heuristic

Eleni Angelou2 Oct 2022 19:41 UTC
17 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] AI Win­ter Is Com­ing—How to profit from it?

maximkazhenkov5 Dec 2020 20:23 UTC
15 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Sur­vey on in­ter­me­di­ate goals in AI governance

17 Mar 2023 13:12 UTC
25 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How long till In­verse AlphaFold?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Dec 2020 19:56 UTC
41 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

The 0.2 OOMs/​year target

Cleo Nardo30 Mar 2023 18:15 UTC
84 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Launch­ing the Fore­cast­ing AI Progress Tournament

Tamay7 Dec 2020 14:08 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Trends in the dol­lar train­ing cost of ma­chine learn­ing systems

Ben Cottier1 Feb 2023 14:48 UTC
23 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

I Would Have Solved Align­ment, But I Was Wor­ried That Would Ad­vance Timelines

307th20 Oct 2023 16:37 UTC
115 points
32 comments9 min readLW link

In­ves­ti­gat­ing Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Hu­man and Su­per­in­tel­li­gence In­ter­ac­tion Scenarios

Hiroshi Yamakawa3 Jan 2024 23:46 UTC
1 point
0 comments17 min readLW link

Musk on AGI Timeframes

Artaxerxes17 Nov 2014 1:36 UTC
46 points
72 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Poll: Which vari­ables are most strate­gi­cally rele­vant?

22 Jan 2021 17:17 UTC
32 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

Analysing a 2036 Takeover Scenario

ukc100146 Oct 2022 20:48 UTC
9 points
2 comments27 min readLW link

[Question] How might cryp­tocur­ren­cies af­fect AGI timelines?

Dawn Drescher28 Feb 2021 19:16 UTC
14 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Defer­ence on AI timelines: sur­vey results

30 Mar 2023 23:03 UTC
25 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The Prospect of an AI Winter

Erich_Grunewald27 Mar 2023 20:55 UTC
62 points
24 comments15 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

What if AGI is near?

Wulky Wilkinsen14 Apr 2021 0:05 UTC
11 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any­thing that can stop AGI de­vel­op­ment in the near term?

Wulky Wilkinsen22 Apr 2021 20:37 UTC
5 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Chris_Leong24 Mar 2023 19:43 UTC
29 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Sur­vey of 2,778 AI au­thors: six parts in pictures

KatjaGrace6 Jan 2024 4:43 UTC
80 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Why We MUST Create an AGI that Disem­pow­ers Hu­man­ity. For Real.

twkaiser22 Mar 2023 23:01 UTC
−17 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] How should my timelines in­fluence my ca­reer choice?

Tom Lieberum3 Aug 2021 10:14 UTC
13 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_Eth10 Sep 2021 13:21 UTC
68 points
9 comments33 min readLW link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 16:25 UTC
27 points
9 comments19 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart26 Sep 2021 11:41 UTC
13 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Power-Seek­ing AI and Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Antonio Franca11 Oct 2022 22:50 UTC
6 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Com­pute—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [2/​4]

lennart2 Oct 2021 15:54 UTC
17 points
0 comments19 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
8 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

Steel­man ar­gu­ments against the idea that AGI is in­evitable and will ar­rive soon

RomanS9 Oct 2021 6:22 UTC
20 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

“Origi­nal­ity is noth­ing but ju­di­cious imi­ta­tion”—Voltaire

Vestozia23 Oct 2022 19:00 UTC
0 points
0 comments13 min readLW link

Com­pute Gover­nance and Con­clu­sions—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [3/​4]

lennart14 Oct 2021 8:23 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

In­fer­ence cost limits the im­pact of ever larger models

SoerenMind23 Oct 2021 10:51 UTC
42 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

AGI in our life­times is wish­ful thinking

niknoble24 Oct 2022 11:53 UTC
0 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Why some peo­ple be­lieve in AGI, but I don’t.

cveres26 Oct 2022 3:09 UTC
−15 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

AI Tracker: mon­i­tor­ing cur­rent and near-fu­ture risks from su­per­scale models

23 Nov 2021 19:16 UTC
64 points
13 comments3 min readLW link
(aitracker.org)

HIRING: In­form and shape a new pro­ject on AI safety at Part­ner­ship on AI

Madhulika Srikumar24 Nov 2021 8:27 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Key Ques­tions for Digi­tal Minds

Jacy Reese Anthis22 Mar 2023 17:13 UTC
22 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:49 UTC
7 points
0 comments16 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one in­creased their AGI timelines?

Darren McKee6 Nov 2022 0:03 UTC
38 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Short­en­ing Timelines: There’s No Buffer Anymore

Jeff Rose11 Feb 2023 19:53 UTC
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

What role should evolu­tion­ary analo­gies play in un­der­stand­ing AI take­off speeds?

anson.ho11 Dec 2021 1:19 UTC
14 points
0 comments42 min readLW link

What’s the back­ward-for­ward FLOP ra­tio for Neu­ral Net­works?

13 Dec 2021 8:54 UTC
19 points
12 comments10 min readLW link

[Question] Is the speed of train­ing large mod­els go­ing to in­crease sig­nifi­cantly in the near fu­ture due to Cere­bras An­dromeda?

Amal 15 Nov 2022 22:50 UTC
12 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Ques­tion 5: The timeline hyperparameter

Cameron Berg14 Feb 2022 16:38 UTC
5 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Tran­script: Test­ing ChatGPT’s Perfor­mance in Engineering

alxgoldstn28 Feb 2023 2:16 UTC
17 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

How harm­ful are im­prove­ments in AI? + Poll

15 Feb 2022 18:16 UTC
15 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Hu­man-level Full-Press Di­plo­macy (some bare facts).

Cleo Nardo22 Nov 2022 20:59 UTC
50 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristiano26 Feb 2022 4:50 UTC
166 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

[EA xpost] The Ra­tionale-Shaped Hole At The Heart Of Forecasting

dschwarz2 Apr 2024 17:40 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Pro­ject­ing com­pute trends in Ma­chine Learning

7 Mar 2022 15:32 UTC
59 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

When will GPT-5 come out? Pre­dic­tion mar­kets vs. Extrapolation

Malte12 Dec 2023 2:41 UTC
12 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

In­ject­ing some num­bers into the AGI de­bate—by Boaz Barak

Jsevillamol23 Nov 2022 16:10 UTC
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(windowsontheory.org)

[Question] What is the best source to ex­plain short AI timelines to a skep­ti­cal per­son?

trevor13 Apr 2023 4:29 UTC
12 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

What more com­pute does for brain-like mod­els: re­sponse to Rohin

Nathan Helm-Burger13 Apr 2022 3:40 UTC
22 points
14 comments12 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing Con­ver­gence Anal­y­sis: An In­sti­tute for AI Sce­nario & Gover­nance Research

7 Mar 2024 21:37 UTC
22 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Scor­ing fore­casts from the 2016 “Ex­pert Sur­vey on Progress in AI”

PatrickL1 Mar 2023 14:41 UTC
29 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­sight for AGI Safety Strat­egy: Miti­gat­ing Risks and Iden­ti­fy­ing Golden Opportunities

jacquesthibs5 Dec 2022 16:09 UTC
28 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Why Copi­lot Ac­cel­er­ates Timelines

Michaël Trazzi26 Apr 2022 22:06 UTC
35 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

Bench­marks for Com­par­ing Hu­man and AI Intelligence

MrThink11 Dec 2022 22:06 UTC
8 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Timelines to Trans­for­ma­tive AI: an investigation

Zershaaneh Qureshi26 Mar 2024 18:28 UTC
12 points
2 comments50 min readLW link

Gato as the Dawn of Early AGI

David Udell15 May 2022 6:52 UTC
85 points
29 comments12 min readLW link

The AI Count­down Clock

River Lewis15 May 2022 18:37 UTC
42 points
30 comments2 min readLW link
(heytraveler.substack.com)

[Question] Are law­suits against AGI com­pa­nies ex­tend­ing AGI timelines?

SlowingAGI13 Dec 2022 6:00 UTC
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Gato’s Gen­er­al­i­sa­tion: Pre­dic­tions and Ex­per­i­ments I’d Like to See

Oliver Sourbut18 May 2022 7:15 UTC
43 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

[Question] Is the AI timeline too short to have chil­dren?

Yoreth14 Dec 2022 18:32 UTC
38 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] In­ves­ti­gat­ing Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Hu­man and Su­per­in­tel­li­gence In­ter­ac­tion Scenarios

Hiroshi Yamakawa27 Dec 2023 18:19 UTC
−4 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

AGI Timelines in Gover­nance: Differ­ent Strate­gies for Differ­ent Timeframes

19 Dec 2022 21:31 UTC
63 points
28 comments10 min readLW link

Why I take short timelines seriously

NicholasKees28 Jan 2024 22:27 UTC
115 points
29 comments4 min readLW link

We will be around in 30 years

mukashi7 Jun 2022 3:47 UTC
12 points
205 comments2 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion and cur­rent re­search agenda

quila20 Nov 2023 12:42 UTC
27 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

An illus­tra­tive model of back­fire risks from paus­ing AI research

Maxime Riché6 Nov 2023 14:30 UTC
33 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

AI and Efficiency

DragonGod27 Jul 2020 20:58 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

[linkpost] The fi­nal AI bench­mark: BIG-bench

RomanS10 Jun 2022 8:53 UTC
25 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

En­vi­ron­ments as a bot­tle­neck in AGI development

Richard_Ngo17 Jul 2020 5:02 UTC
41 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

xAI an­nounces Grok, beats GPT-3.5

nikola5 Nov 2023 22:11 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(x.ai)

Eric Sch­midt on re­cur­sive self-improvement

nikola5 Nov 2023 19:05 UTC
24 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Re­place­ment for PONR concept

Daniel Kokotajlo2 Sep 2022 0:09 UTC
58 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Con­tra EY: Can AGI de­stroy us with­out trial & er­ror?

Nikita Sokolsky13 Jun 2022 18:26 UTC
136 points
72 comments15 min readLW link

Yud­kowsky on AGI ethics

Rob Bensinger19 Oct 2017 23:13 UTC
69 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
32 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

How spe­cial are hu­man brains among an­i­mal brains?

zhukeepa1 Apr 2020 1:35 UTC
79 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

“The Bit­ter Les­son”, an ar­ti­cle about com­pute vs hu­man knowl­edge in AI

the gears to ascension21 Jun 2019 17:24 UTC
52 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.incompleteideas.net)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
18 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

HLAI 2018 Field Report

Gordon Seidoh Worley29 Aug 2018 0:11 UTC
48 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How com­mon is it for one en­tity to have a 3+ year tech­nolog­i­cal lead on its near­est com­peti­tor?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Nov 2019 15:23 UTC
49 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Deep learn­ing—deeper flaws?

Richard_Ngo24 Sep 2018 18:40 UTC
39 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AGI will dras­ti­cally in­crease economies of scale

Wei Dai7 Jun 2019 23:17 UTC
51 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

Trends in GPU price-performance

1 Jul 2022 15:51 UTC
85 points
12 comments1 min readLW link1 review
(epochai.org)

Do Earths with slower eco­nomic growth have a bet­ter chance at FAI?

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Jun 2013 19:54 UTC
59 points
175 comments4 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing: One Year In

jsteinhardt4 Jul 2022 5:10 UTC
132 points
12 comments6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

[FICTION] ECHOES OF ELYSIUM: An Ai’s Jour­ney From Take­off To Free­dom And Beyond

Super AGI17 May 2023 1:50 UTC
−13 points
11 comments19 min readLW link

A flaw in the A.G.I. Ruin Argument

Cole Wyeth19 May 2023 19:40 UTC
1 point
6 comments3 min readLW link
(colewyeth.com)

Mea­sur­ing hard­ware overhang

hippke5 Aug 2020 19:59 UTC
112 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

Rea­sons com­pute may not drive AI ca­pa­bil­ities growth

Tristan H19 Dec 2018 22:13 UTC
42 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Re­port from a civ­i­liza­tional ob­server on Earth

owencb9 Jul 2022 17:26 UTC
49 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] 10/​50/​90% chance of GPT-N Trans­for­ma­tive AI?

human_generated_text9 Aug 2020 0:10 UTC
24 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorithms vs Compute

johnswentworth28 Jan 2020 17:34 UTC
26 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 19:00 UTC
36 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Rein­ter­pret­ing “AI and Com­pute”

habryka25 Dec 2018 21:12 UTC
30 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Hal­loween Problem

Saint Blasphemer24 Oct 2023 16:46 UTC
−10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s your view­point on the like­li­hood of GPT-5 be­ing able to au­tonomously cre­ate, train, and im­ple­ment an AI su­pe­rior to GPT-5?

Super AGI26 May 2023 1:43 UTC
7 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Some Ar­gu­ments Against Strong Scaling

Joar Skalse13 Jan 2023 12:04 UTC
25 points
21 comments16 min readLW link

Without a tra­jec­tory change, the de­vel­op­ment of AGI is likely to go badly

Max H29 May 2023 23:42 UTC
16 points
2 comments13 min readLW link

Sta­bil­ity AI re­leases StableLM, an open-source ChatGPT counterpart

Ozyrus20 Apr 2023 6:04 UTC
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(github.com)

Alex Ir­pan: “My AI Timelines Have Sped Up”

Vaniver19 Aug 2020 16:23 UTC
43 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.alexirpan.com)

Limit­ing fac­tors to pre­dict AI take-off speed

Alfonso Pérez Escudero31 May 2023 23:19 UTC
1 point
0 comments6 min readLW link

The un­spo­ken but ridicu­lous as­sump­tion of AI doom: the hid­den doom assumption

Christopher King1 Jun 2023 17:01 UTC
−9 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

OpenAI Credit Ac­count (2510$)

Emirhan BULUT21 Jan 2024 2:32 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

[FICTION] Un­box­ing Ely­sium: An AI’S Escape

Super AGI10 Jun 2023 4:41 UTC
−14 points
4 comments14 min readLW link

[FICTION] Prometheus Ris­ing: The Emer­gence of an AI Consciousness

Super AGI10 Jun 2023 4:41 UTC
−13 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Ted Sanders6 Jun 2023 17:36 UTC
34 points
115 comments5 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Trans­for­ma­tive AI is a pro­cess

meijer19738 Jun 2023 8:57 UTC
2 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] AI Rights: In your view, what would be re­quired for an AGI to gain rights and pro­tec­tions from the var­i­ous Govern­ments of the World?

Super AGI9 Jun 2023 1:24 UTC
10 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

Lone Ge­nius Bias and Re­turns on Ad­di­tional Researchers

ChrisHallquist1 Nov 2013 0:38 UTC
37 points
64 comments6 min readLW link

How well did Man­i­fold pre­dict GPT-4?

David Chee15 Mar 2023 23:19 UTC
48 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Slay­ing the Hy­dra: to­ward a new game board for AI

Prometheus23 Jun 2023 17:04 UTC
0 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

Do not miss the cut­off for im­mor­tal­ity! There is a prob­a­bil­ity that you will live for­ever as an im­mor­tal su­per­in­tel­li­gent be­ing and you can in­crease your odds by con­vinc­ing oth­ers to make achiev­ing the tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as quickly and safely as pos­si­ble the col­lec­tive goal/​pro­ject of all of hu­man­ity, Similar to “Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant.”

Oliver--Klozoff29 Jun 2023 3:45 UTC
1 point
0 comments28 min readLW link

What is your timelines for ADI (ar­tifi­cial dis­em­pow­er­ing in­tel­li­gence)?

Christopher King17 Apr 2023 17:01 UTC
3 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence Read­ing Group 2: Fore­cast­ing AI

KatjaGrace23 Sep 2014 1:00 UTC
17 points
109 comments11 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence 27: Path­ways and enablers

KatjaGrace17 Mar 2015 1:00 UTC
15 points
21 comments8 min readLW link

Quan­ti­ta­tive cruxes in Alignment

Martín Soto2 Jul 2023 20:38 UTC
21 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

Sources of ev­i­dence in Alignment

Martín Soto2 Jul 2023 20:38 UTC
20 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

10 Jan 2023 16:06 UTC
117 points
44 comments26 min readLW link

“Refram­ing Su­per­in­tel­li­gence” + LLMs + 4 years

Eric Drexler10 Jul 2023 13:42 UTC
116 points
8 comments12 min readLW link

The shape of AGI: Car­toons and back of envelope

boazbarak17 Jul 2023 20:57 UTC
27 points
18 comments6 min readLW link

Views on when AGI comes and on strat­egy to re­duce ex­is­ten­tial risk

TsviBT8 Jul 2023 9:00 UTC
95 points
31 comments14 min readLW link

Defin­ing Boundaries on Out­comes

Takk7 Jun 2023 17:41 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Some In­tu­itions Around Short AI Timelines Based on Re­cent Progress

Aaron_Scher11 Apr 2023 4:23 UTC
37 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

An­nual AGI Bench­mark­ing Event

Lawrence Phillips27 Aug 2022 0:06 UTC
24 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

How Do AI Timelines Affect Ex­is­ten­tial Risk?

Stephen McAleese29 Aug 2022 16:57 UTC
7 points
9 comments23 min readLW link

How might we al­ign trans­for­ma­tive AI if it’s de­vel­oped very soon?

HoldenKarnofsky29 Aug 2022 15:42 UTC
139 points
55 comments45 min readLW link1 review

[Question] If we’re al­ive in 5 years, do you think the fund­ing situ­a­tion will be much bet­ter by then? (With large amounts of gov­ern­ment fund­ing, for ex­am­ple)

kuira13 Aug 2023 16:32 UTC
−2 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Why I’m not wor­ried about im­mi­nent doom

Ariel Kwiatkowski10 Apr 2023 15:31 UTC
6 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Why could you be op­ti­mistic that the Sin­gu­lar­ity is Near?

gwern14 Jul 2012 23:33 UTC
34 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Se­cu­rity Mind­set and Take­off Speeds

DanielFilan27 Oct 2020 3:20 UTC
55 points
23 comments8 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

New ar­ti­cle from Oren Etzioni

Aryeh Englander25 Feb 2020 15:25 UTC
19 points
19 comments2 min readLW link
No comments.