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AI Timelines

TagLast edit: 29 Jul 2020 22:27 UTC by Ben Pace

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it’s the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the dynamics of AI progress after human-level AI is developed (e.g. will it be a single project or the whole economy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya Cotra18 Sep 2020 23:47 UTC
184 points
56 comments1 min readLW link1 review

My cur­rent frame­work for think­ing about AGI timelines

zhukeepa30 Mar 2020 1:23 UTC
106 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
130 points
94 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N performance

Lanrian18 Dec 2020 21:41 UTC
102 points
31 comments25 min readLW link1 review

Biol­ogy-In­spired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2021 22:35 UTC
174 points
140 comments65 min readLW link

There’s No Fire Alarm for Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Oct 2017 21:38 UTC
120 points
69 comments25 min readLW link

Jeff Hawk­ins on neu­ro­mor­phic AGI within 20 years

Steven Byrnes15 Jul 2019 19:16 UTC
165 points
24 comments12 min readLW link

hu­man psy­chol­in­guists: a crit­i­cal appraisal

nostalgebraist31 Dec 2019 0:20 UTC
167 points
59 comments16 min readLW link2 reviews
(nostalgebraist.tumblr.com)

Shul­man and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

3 Dec 2021 20:05 UTC
91 points
16 comments20 min readLW link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
130 points
15 comments14 min readLW link1 review

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Mar 2021 13:30 UTC
175 points
70 comments12 min readLW link

AI timeline pre­dic­tions: are we get­ting bet­ter?

Stuart_Armstrong17 Aug 2012 7:07 UTC
79 points
81 comments4 min readLW link

Are we in an AI over­hang?

Andy Jones27 Jul 2020 12:48 UTC
253 points
106 comments4 min readLW link

The un­ex­pected difficulty of com­par­ing AlphaS­tar to humans

Richard Korzekwa 18 Sep 2019 2:20 UTC
144 points
36 comments26 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Grokking “Fore­cast­ing TAI with biolog­i­cal an­chors”

anson.ho6 Jun 2022 18:58 UTC
25 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Devel­op­men­tal Stages of GPTs

orthonormal26 Jul 2020 22:03 UTC
140 points
74 comments7 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Would (my­opic) gen­eral pub­lic good pro­duc­ers sig­nifi­cantly ac­cel­er­ate the de­vel­op­ment of AGI?

MakoYass2 Mar 2022 23:47 UTC
24 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] To what ex­tent is GPT-3 ca­pa­ble of rea­son­ing?

TurnTrout20 Jul 2020 17:10 UTC
70 points
74 comments16 min readLW link

Can you get AGI from a Trans­former?

Steven Byrnes23 Jul 2020 15:27 UTC
106 points
39 comments12 min readLW link

AlphaS­tar: Im­pres­sive for RL progress, not for AGI progress

orthonormal2 Nov 2019 1:50 UTC
113 points
58 comments2 min readLW link1 review

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habryka12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC
44 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Re­view of “Fun with +12 OOMs of Com­pute”

28 Mar 2021 14:55 UTC
57 points
20 comments8 min readLW link

Frac­tional progress es­ti­mates for AI timelines and im­plied re­source requirements

15 Jul 2021 18:43 UTC
54 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

The AI Timelines Scam

jessicata11 Jul 2019 2:52 UTC
92 points
100 comments7 min readLW link3 reviews
(unstableontology.com)

The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over

Daniel Kokotajlo22 Oct 2020 10:41 UTC
118 points
32 comments2 min readLW link1 review

The next AI win­ter will be due to en­ergy costs

hippke24 Nov 2020 16:53 UTC
54 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Three rea­sons to ex­pect long AI timelines

Matthew Barnett22 Apr 2021 18:44 UTC
64 points
29 comments11 min readLW link
(matthewbarnett.substack.com)

Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

25 Nov 2021 16:45 UTC
115 points
95 comments68 min readLW link

Deep­mind’s Gato: Gen­er­al­ist Agent

Daniel Kokotajlo12 May 2022 16:01 UTC
162 points
60 comments1 min readLW link

Brains and back­prop: a key timeline crux

jacobjacob9 Mar 2018 22:13 UTC
32 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

AI timeline pre­dic­tion data

Stuart_Armstrong22 Aug 2012 11:49 UTC
26 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] How does OpenAI’s lan­guage model af­fect our AI timeline es­ti­mates?

jimrandomh15 Feb 2019 3:11 UTC
50 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

SSC Jour­nal Club: AI Timelines

Scott Alexander8 Jun 2017 19:00 UTC
11 points
15 comments8 min readLW link

A model I use when mak­ing plans to re­duce AI x-risk

Ben Pace19 Jan 2018 0:21 UTC
69 points
41 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Prob­a­bil­ity that other ar­chi­tec­tures will scale as well as Trans­form­ers?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Jul 2020 19:36 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

OpenAI an­nounces GPT-3

gwern29 May 2020 1:49 UTC
67 points
23 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

GPT-3: a dis­ap­point­ing paper

nostalgebraist29 May 2020 19:06 UTC
67 points
44 comments8 min readLW link1 review

Uber Self-Driv­ing Crash

jefftk7 Nov 2019 15:00 UTC
110 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What hap­pens to var­i­ance as neu­ral net­work train­ing is scaled? What does it im­ply about “lot­tery tick­ets”?

abramdemski28 Jul 2020 20:22 UTC
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

AI Align­ment 2018-19 Review

Rohin Shah28 Jan 2020 2:19 UTC
125 points
6 comments35 min readLW link

How rapidly are GPUs im­prov­ing in price perfor­mance?

gallabytes25 Nov 2018 19:54 UTC
31 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(mediangroup.org)

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
38 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

VermillionStuka14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
27 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo5 Nov 2020 19:56 UTC
25 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo7 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC
43 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

Daniel Kokotajlo16 Nov 2020 14:05 UTC
21 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Nov 2020 12:51 UTC
16 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on Robin Han­son’s AI Im­pacts interview

Steven Byrnes24 Nov 2019 1:40 UTC
25 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Com­ments on “The Sin­gu­lar­ity is Nowhere Near”

Steven Byrnes16 Mar 2021 23:59 UTC
50 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Jan 2021 12:08 UTC
181 points
84 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal Models of Progress?

abramdemski16 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is driv­ing worth the risk?

adamzerner11 May 2021 5:04 UTC
26 points
29 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What will the twen­ties look like if AGI is 30 years away?

Daniel Kokotajlo13 Jul 2021 8:14 UTC
29 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel Kokotajlo6 Aug 2021 16:14 UTC
326 points
67 comments16 min readLW link

Brain-in­spired AGI and the “life­time an­chor”

Steven Byrnes29 Sep 2021 13:09 UTC
64 points
15 comments13 min readLW link

The Ex­trap­o­la­tion Problem

lsusr10 Oct 2021 5:11 UTC
25 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Com­ments on Car­l­smith’s “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

So8res13 Nov 2021 4:29 UTC
130 points
13 comments40 min readLW link

Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Nov 2021 19:35 UTC
189 points
169 comments60 min readLW link

More Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

6 Dec 2021 20:33 UTC
84 points
30 comments40 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion on tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing and gradualism

9 Dec 2021 21:23 UTC
106 points
31 comments31 min readLW link

My Overview of the AI Align­ment Land­scape: A Bird’s Eye View

Neel Nanda15 Dec 2021 23:44 UTC
104 points
9 comments16 min readLW link

Thoughts on AGI safety from the top

jylin042 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
21 points
2 comments32 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus launches con­test for es­says with quan­ti­ta­tive pre­dic­tions about AI

8 Feb 2022 16:07 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

[In­tro to brain-like-AGI safety] 3. Two sub­sys­tems: Learn­ing & Steering

Steven Byrnes9 Feb 2022 13:09 UTC
41 points
1 comment24 min readLW link

A com­ment on Ajeya Co­tra’s draft re­port on AI timelines

Matthew Barnett24 Feb 2022 0:41 UTC
67 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

Wargam­ing AGI Development

ryan_b19 Mar 2022 17:59 UTC
35 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

[Link] Train­ing Com­pute-Op­ti­mal Large Lan­guage Models

nostalgebraist31 Mar 2022 18:01 UTC
50 points
23 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

A con­crete bet offer to those with short AI timelines

9 Apr 2022 21:41 UTC
182 points
88 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What’s a good prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tion fam­ily (e.g. “log-nor­mal”) to use for AGI timelines?

capybaralet13 Apr 2022 4:45 UTC
9 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

For ev­ery choice of AGI difficulty, con­di­tion­ing on grad­ual take-off im­plies shorter timelines.

Francis Rhys Ward21 Apr 2022 7:44 UTC
29 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What are the num­bers in mind for the su­per-short AGI timelines so many long-ter­mists are alarmed about?

Evan_Gaensbauer21 Apr 2022 23:32 UTC
22 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­am­in­ing Evolu­tion as an Up­per Bound for AGI Timelines

meanderingmoose24 Apr 2022 19:08 UTC
5 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

[Question] To what ex­tent is your AGI timeline bi­modal or oth­er­wise “bumpy”?

jchan16 May 2022 17:42 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The Prob­lem With The Cur­rent State of AGI Definitions

Yitz29 May 2022 13:58 UTC
40 points
21 comments8 min readLW link

The Bio An­chors Forecast

Ansh Radhakrishnan2 Jun 2022 1:32 UTC
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

I’m try­ing out “as­ter­oid mind­set”

Alex_Altair3 Jun 2022 13:35 UTC
83 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

AI and Efficiency

𝕮𝖎𝖓𝖊𝖗𝖆27 Jul 2020 20:58 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

En­vi­ron­ments as a bot­tle­neck in AGI development

Richard_Ngo17 Jul 2020 5:02 UTC
36 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

Yud­kowsky on AGI ethics

Rob Bensinger19 Oct 2017 23:13 UTC
52 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
31 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

How spe­cial are hu­man brains among an­i­mal brains?

zhukeepa1 Apr 2020 1:35 UTC
78 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

“The Bit­ter Les­son”, an ar­ti­cle about com­pute vs hu­man knowl­edge in AI

the gears to ascenscion21 Jun 2019 17:24 UTC
50 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.incompleteideas.net)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
18 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

HLAI 2018 Field Report

G Gordon Worley III29 Aug 2018 0:11 UTC
48 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How com­mon is it for one en­tity to have a 3+ year tech­nolog­i­cal lead on its near­est com­peti­tor?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Nov 2019 15:23 UTC
49 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Deep learn­ing—deeper flaws?

Richard_Ngo24 Sep 2018 18:40 UTC
39 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AGI will dras­ti­cally in­crease economies of scale

Wei_Dai7 Jun 2019 23:17 UTC
51 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

Do Earths with slower eco­nomic growth have a bet­ter chance at FAI?

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Jun 2013 19:54 UTC
54 points
176 comments4 min readLW link

Mea­sur­ing hard­ware overhang

hippke5 Aug 2020 19:59 UTC
105 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

Rea­sons com­pute may not drive AI ca­pa­bil­ities growth

Kythe19 Dec 2018 22:13 UTC
42 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] 10/​50/​90% chance of GPT-N Trans­for­ma­tive AI?

human_generated_text9 Aug 2020 0:10 UTC
24 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorithms vs Compute

johnswentworth28 Jan 2020 17:34 UTC
26 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 19:00 UTC
36 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Rein­ter­pret­ing “AI and Com­pute”

habryka25 Dec 2018 21:12 UTC
30 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Alex Ir­pan: “My AI Timelines Have Sped Up”

Vaniver19 Aug 2020 16:23 UTC
43 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.alexirpan.com)

Lone Ge­nius Bias and Re­turns on Ad­di­tional Researchers

ChrisHallquist1 Nov 2013 0:38 UTC
37 points
64 comments6 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence Read­ing Group 2: Fore­cast­ing AI

KatjaGrace23 Sep 2014 1:00 UTC
17 points
109 comments11 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence 27: Path­ways and enablers

KatjaGrace17 Mar 2015 1:00 UTC
15 points
21 comments8 min readLW link

Why could you be op­ti­mistic that the Sin­gu­lar­ity is Near?

gwern14 Jul 2012 23:33 UTC
34 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Se­cu­rity Mind­set and Take­off Speeds

DanielFilan27 Oct 2020 3:20 UTC
54 points
23 comments8 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

New ar­ti­cle from Oren Etzioni

Aryeh Englander25 Feb 2020 15:25 UTC
19 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What achieve­ments have peo­ple claimed will be warn­ing signs for AGI?

Richard_Ngo1 Apr 2020 10:24 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Deep­mind Plans for Rat-Level AI

moridinamael18 Aug 2016 16:26 UTC
34 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of Quan­tum Com­put­ing for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Align­ment Research

22 Aug 2019 10:33 UTC
23 points
3 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] AI Win­ter Is Com­ing—How to profit from it?

maximkazhenkov5 Dec 2020 20:23 UTC
10 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How long till In­verse AlphaFold?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Dec 2020 19:56 UTC
41 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Launch­ing the Fore­cast­ing AI Progress Tournament

Tamay7 Dec 2020 14:08 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Musk on AGI Timeframes

Artaxerxes17 Nov 2014 1:36 UTC
45 points
71 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Poll: Which vari­ables are most strate­gi­cally rele­vant?

22 Jan 2021 17:17 UTC
32 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How might cryp­tocur­ren­cies af­fect AGI timelines?

Denis Drescher28 Feb 2021 19:16 UTC
13 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

What if AGI is near?

Wulky Wilkinsen14 Apr 2021 0:05 UTC
11 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any­thing that can stop AGI de­vel­op­ment in the near term?

Wulky Wilkinsen22 Apr 2021 20:37 UTC
5 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How should my timelines in­fluence my ca­reer choice?

Tom Lieberum3 Aug 2021 10:14 UTC
13 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_Eth10 Sep 2021 13:21 UTC
66 points
8 comments33 min readLW link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 16:25 UTC
24 points
8 comments19 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart26 Sep 2021 11:41 UTC
12 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Com­pute—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [2/​4]

lennart2 Oct 2021 15:54 UTC
17 points
0 comments19 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
8 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

Steel­man ar­gu­ments against the idea that AGI is in­evitable and will ar­rive soon

RomanS9 Oct 2021 6:22 UTC
19 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Com­pute Gover­nance and Con­clu­sions—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [3/​4]

lennart14 Oct 2021 8:23 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

In­fer­ence cost limits the im­pact of ever larger models

SoerenMind23 Oct 2021 10:51 UTC
36 points
28 comments2 min readLW link

AI Tracker: mon­i­tor­ing cur­rent and near-fu­ture risks from su­per­scale models

23 Nov 2021 19:16 UTC
62 points
13 comments3 min readLW link
(aitracker.org)

HIRING: In­form and shape a new pro­ject on AI safety at Part­ner­ship on AI

Madhulika Srikumar24 Nov 2021 8:27 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:49 UTC
6 points
0 comments16 min readLW link

What role should evolu­tion­ary analo­gies play in un­der­stand­ing AI take­off speeds?

anson.ho11 Dec 2021 1:19 UTC
14 points
0 comments42 min readLW link

What’s the back­ward-for­ward FLOP ra­tio for Neu­ral Net­works?

13 Dec 2021 8:54 UTC
16 points
7 comments10 min readLW link

Ques­tion 5: The timeline hyperparameter

Cameron Berg14 Feb 2022 16:38 UTC
5 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

How harm­ful are im­prove­ments in AI? + Poll

15 Feb 2022 18:16 UTC
15 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristiano26 Feb 2022 4:50 UTC
160 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

Pro­ject­ing com­pute trends in Ma­chine Learning

7 Mar 2022 15:32 UTC
56 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

What more com­pute does for brain-like mod­els: re­sponse to Rohin

Nathan Helm-Burger13 Apr 2022 3:40 UTC
22 points
14 comments11 min readLW link

Why Copi­lot Ac­cel­er­ates Timelines

Michaël Trazzi26 Apr 2022 22:06 UTC
31 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

Gato as the Dawn of Early AGI

David Udell15 May 2022 6:52 UTC
84 points
29 comments12 min readLW link

The AI Count­down Clock

River Lewis15 May 2022 18:37 UTC
41 points
17 comments2 min readLW link
(heytraveler.substack.com)

Gato’s Gen­er­al­i­sa­tion: Pre­dic­tions and Ex­per­i­ments I’d Like to See

Oliver Sourbut18 May 2022 7:15 UTC
40 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

We will be around in 30 years

mukashi7 Jun 2022 3:47 UTC
13 points
205 comments2 min readLW link

[linkpost] The fi­nal AI bench­mark: BIG-bench

RomanS10 Jun 2022 8:53 UTC
29 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Grokking “Semi-in­for­ma­tive pri­ors over AI timelines”

anson.ho12 Jun 2022 22:17 UTC
13 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

Con­tra EY: Can AGI de­stroy us with­out trial & er­ror?

Nikita Sokolsky13 Jun 2022 18:26 UTC
123 points
71 comments15 min readLW link
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