In Developmental Stages of GPTs, orthonormal explains why we might need “zero more cognitive breakthroughs” to reach transformative AI, aka “an AI capable of making an Industrial Revolution sized impact”. More specifically, he says that “basically, GPT-6 or GPT-7 might do it”.
Besides, Are we in an AI overhang? makes the case that “GPT-3 is the trigger for 100x larger projects at Google, Facebook and the like, with timelines measured in months.”
Now, assuming that “GPT-6 or GPT-7 might do it” and that timelines are “measured in months” for 100x larger projects, in what year will there be a 10% (resp. 50% / 90%) chance of having transformative AI and what would the 50% timeline look like?