Alex Irpan: “My AI Timelines Have Sped Up”

Link post

Blog post by Alex Ir­pan. The ba­sic sum­mary:

In 2015, I made the fol­low­ing fore­casts about when AGI could hap­pen.

  • 10% chance by 2045

  • 50% chance by 2050

  • 90% chance by 2070

Now that it’s 2020, I’m up­dat­ing my fore­cast to:

  • 10% chance by 2035

  • 50% chance by 2045

  • 90% chance by 2070

The main un­der­ly­ing shifts: more fo­cus on im­prove­ments in tools, com­pute, and un­su­per­vised learn­ing.