Conceding a short timelines bet early

Last year I bet some people about short AI timelines. While I don’t think I’ve lost the bet yet, I think it’s clear at this point that I will lose with high probability. I’ve outlined the reasons why I think that in a retrospective here. Even if I end up winning, I think it will likely be the result of a technicality, and that wouldn’t be very interesting.

Because of my personal preference for settling this matter now without delay, I have decided to take the step of conceding the bet now. Note however that I am not asking Tamay to do the same. I have messaged the relevant parties and asked them to send me details on how to pay them.

I congratulate Nathan Helm-Burger and Tomás B. for taking the other side of the bet.