[Question] Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines

This is a thread for dis­play­ing your timeline un­til hu­man-level AGI.

Every an­swer to this post should be a fore­cast. In this case, a fore­cast show­ing your AI timeline.

For ex­am­ple, here are Alex Ir­pan’s AGI timelines.

The green dis­tri­bu­tion is his pre­dic­tion from 2015, and the or­ange dis­tri­bu­tion is his 2020 up­date (based on this post).

For ex­tra credit, you can:

  • Say why you be­lieve it (what fac­tors are you track­ing?)

  • In­clude some­one else’s dis­tri­bu­tion who you dis­agree with, and spec­u­late as to the disagreement

How to make a dis­tri­bu­tion us­ing Elicit

  1. Go to this page.

  2. En­ter your be­liefs in the bins.

    1. Spec­ify an in­ter­val us­ing the Min and Max bin, and put the prob­a­bil­ity you as­sign to that in­ter­val in the prob­a­bil­ity bin.

    2. For ex­am­ple, if you think there’s a 50% prob­a­bil­ity of AGI be­fore 2050, you can leave Min blank (it will de­fault to the Min of the ques­tion range), en­ter 2050 in the Max bin, and en­ter 50% in the prob­a­bil­ity bin.

    3. The min­i­mum of the range is Jan­uary 1, 2021, and the max­i­mum is Jan­uary 1, 2100. You can as­sign prob­a­bil­ity above Jan­uary 1, 2100 (which also in­cludes ‘never’) or be­low Jan­uary 1, 2021 us­ing the Edit but­tons next to the graph.

  3. Click ‘Save snap­shot,’ to save your dis­tri­bu­tion to a static URL.

    1. A times­tamp will ap­pear be­low the ‘Save snap­shot’ but­ton. This links to the URL of your snap­shot.

    2. Make sure to copy it be­fore re­fresh­ing the page, oth­er­wise it will dis­ap­pear.

  4. Copy the snap­shot times­tamp link and paste it into your LessWrong com­ment.

    1. You can also add a screen­shot of your dis­tri­bu­tion us­ing the in­struc­tions be­low.

How to over­lay dis­tri­bu­tions on the same graph

  1. Copy your snap­shot URL.

  2. Paste it into the Im­port snap­shot via URL box on the snap­shot you want to com­pare your pre­dic­tion to (e.g. the snap­shot of Alex’s dis­tri­bu­tions).

  3. Re­name your dis­tri­bu­tion to keep track.

  4. Take a new snap­shot if you want to save or share the over­laid dis­tri­bu­tions.

How to add an image to your comment

  • Take a screen­shot of your distribution

  • Then do one of two things:

    • If you have beta-fea­tures turned on in your ac­count set­tings, drag-and-drop the image into your comment

    • If not, up­load it to an image host­ing ser­vice, then write the fol­low­ing mark­down syn­tax for the image to ap­pear, with the url ap­pear­ing where it says ‘link’: ![](link)

  • If it worked, you will see the image in the com­ment be­fore hit­ting sub­mit.

If you have any bugs or tech­ni­cal is­sues, re­ply to Ben (here) in the com­ment sec­tion.

Top Fore­cast Comparisons

Here is a snap­shot of the top voted fore­casts from this thread, last up­dated 9/​01/​20. You can click the drop­down box near the bot­tom right of the graph to see the bins for each pre­dic­tion.

Here is a com­par­i­son of the fore­casts as a CDF:

Here is a mix­ture of the dis­tri­bu­tions on this thread, weighted by nor­mal­ized votes (last up­dated 9/​01/​20). The me­dian is June 20, 2047. You can click the In­ter­pret tab on the snap­shot to see more per­centiles.