swe, speculative investor
O O
Karma: 775
Evaluation: Correct. AI can perhaps pass the reading comprehension task. But not any 4 of the tasks.
“Reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]”
Also Opus 4.5 can probably pass this one. (10,000 lines of code is not a lot in some languages)
; this discussion is more apocalyptic, predicting global microprocessor production falling to “early 2000s levels for perhaps 15 years
This was from 2022. Since then, the US has made significant efforts in de-risking the semiconductor supply chain. The Arizona fab appears to be ahead of schedule and of course is already operational. Additionally rare earth chokepoints have been identified and begun to be addressed. I would lean towards it being less of a slow down in advanced chip manufacturing than expected in the 2022 report.
These are private roads right?
Populism is too strong for job categories to be wiped out in the U.S. without consumer adoption first. I’d check how it’s going in other countries.
A slow takeoff will result in incredibly suboptimal outcomes.
I think increasingly, it’s looking like democratic country politicians will not respond to automation in a remotely intelligent way.I see democrat politicians and some republicans too call for full bans on self driving trucks. Meanwhile authoritarian countries like China and Russia are testing these trucks. The U.S. still holds a technological edge but for how long? A slow takeoff will probably lead to democratic countries strangled by rent seekers and other similar parasites.
I feel like this is quite underrated. A lot of solutions to a fast takeoff in my estimate would be hijacked by rent seekers to create a horrible world in a slow takeoff.
May be related: OTC melatonin dosage is way above what is recommended. It’s easy to find 10mg when the recommended dose is more like 0.3 mg.
why other alignment people don’t seem to think we’ll get catastrophic job losses before AGI
Because AI before AGI will have similar effects as previous productivity enhancing technologies.
AGI misalignment is less likely to look like us being gray goo’d and more like the misalignment of the tiktok recommendation algorithm (but possibly less since that one doesn’t understand human values at all).
The simplest answer is progress is stalling. They could have gone for the engagement optimization angle since 2023, but there were promising alternatives then. By 2025, these all failed. Pretraining returns stalled and reasoning proved too inefficient to scale.
Small note: negative consensus seems to be concentrated in the Anglosphere
I’m not in law, but it seems more like an online course trying to be sold to me than a real conference. There is a long list of company logos, a bunch of credits and certifications promised, and a large blob of customer testimonials.
Did some quick googling and an actual conference would look like this. https://www.lsuite.co/techgc
I’m surprised this comment has so many upvotes. Did anyone actually click the link?
She is? She just seems like a standard LinkedIn grifter.
Seems like a highly speculative post built on complete guesses with little evidence or faulty claims.
How is any of that wrong or related to the question of ai being aligned. Do doomers seriously think you can indefinitely stop automation? It’s been happening for centuries.
They’re ignoring alignment but so are most labs. I still don’t get how this is not irrational. If it was worded as AI will inevitably become smarter then no one here would care.
The reaction to Mechanize seems pretty deranged. As far as I can tell they don’t deny or hasten existential risk any more than other labs. They just don’t sugarcoat it. It’s quite obvious that the economic value of AI is for labor automation, and that the only way to stop this is to stop AI progress itself. The forces of capitalism are quite strong, labor unions in the US tried to slow automation and it just moved to China as a result (among other reasons). There is a reason Yudkowsky always implies measures like GPU bans.
It just seems like they hit a nerve since apparently a lot of doomerism is fueled by insecurities of job replacement.
In practice, this likely boils down to a race. On one side are people trying to empower humanity by building coordination technology and human-empowering AI. On the other side are those working to create human-disempowering technology and render human labor worthless as fast as possible.
I mean if we’re being completely candid here, there is almost no chance the first group wins this race right?
the world had more centralization, such that the Industrial Revolution never started in an uncontrolled way
What motive does a centralized dominant power have to allow any progress? The entire world would likely look more like North Korea.
War is not the only potential response. I don’t know why this is being framed as normal when a normal treaty would have something like sanctions as a response.
Keep in mind propagandizing it is also an easy way to get political polarization.
The 50% reliability mark on METR is interpreted wrong. A long 50% time horizon is more useful than it seems because a 50% failure rate doesn’t mean 50% of the time your output is useful and 50% of the time it’s worthless.
For shorter tasks, this maybe true, since fixing a short task takes as much time as just doing it yourself, but for longer tasks, among the 50% of failures, it’s more like 30% of the time you need to nudge it a bit, 10% of the time you need to go to another model, final 10% you need to sit down and take your time to debug.