[Question] How does OpenAI’s language model affect our AI timeline estimates?

OpenAI recently announced progress in NLP, using a large transformer-based language model to tackle a variety of tasks and breaking performance records in many of them. It also generates synthetic short stories, which are surprisingly good.

How surprising are these results, given past models of how difficult language learning was and how far AI had progressed? Should we be significantly updating our estimates of AI timelines?

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