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AI Timelines

TagLast edit: 29 Jul 2020 22:27 UTC by Ben Pace

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it’s the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the dynamics of AI progress after human-level AI is developed (e.g. will it be a single project or the whole economy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya Cotra18 Sep 2020 23:47 UTC
142 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

My cur­rent frame­work for think­ing about AGI timelines

zhukeepa30 Mar 2020 1:23 UTC
102 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
115 points
88 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N performance

Lanrian18 Dec 2020 21:41 UTC
75 points
29 comments25 min readLW link

There’s No Fire Alarm for Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Oct 2017 21:38 UTC
103 points
67 comments25 min readLW link

Jeff Hawk­ins on neu­ro­mor­phic AGI within 20 years

Steven Byrnes15 Jul 2019 19:16 UTC
159 points
24 comments12 min readLW link1 nomination

hu­man psy­chol­in­guists: a crit­i­cal appraisal

nostalgebraist31 Dec 2019 0:20 UTC
155 points
57 comments16 min readLW link2 nominations2 reviews
(nostalgebraist.tumblr.com)

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
113 points
13 comments14 min readLW link

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Mar 2021 13:30 UTC
127 points
63 comments12 min readLW link

AI timeline pre­dic­tions: are we get­ting bet­ter?

Stuart_Armstrong17 Aug 2012 7:07 UTC
77 points
81 comments4 min readLW link

Are we in an AI over­hang?

Andy Jones27 Jul 2020 12:48 UTC
235 points
94 comments4 min readLW link

The un­ex­pected difficulty of com­par­ing AlphaS­tar to humans

Richard Korzekwa 18 Sep 2019 2:20 UTC
134 points
34 comments26 min readLW link2 nominations
(aiimpacts.org)

Devel­op­men­tal Stages of GPTs

orthonormal26 Jul 2020 22:03 UTC
129 points
73 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] To what ex­tent is GPT-3 ca­pa­ble of rea­son­ing?

TurnTrout20 Jul 2020 17:10 UTC
70 points
74 comments16 min readLW link

Can you get AGI from a Trans­former?

Steven Byrnes23 Jul 2020 15:27 UTC
88 points
32 comments11 min readLW link

AlphaS­tar: Im­pres­sive for RL progress, not for AGI progress

orthonormal2 Nov 2019 1:50 UTC
111 points
58 comments2 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habryka12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC
42 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Re­view of “Fun with +12 OOMs of Com­pute”

28 Mar 2021 14:55 UTC
55 points
18 comments8 min readLW link

The AI Timelines Scam

jessicata11 Jul 2019 2:52 UTC
75 points
100 comments7 min readLW link2 nominations3 reviews
(unstableontology.com)

The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over

Daniel Kokotajlo22 Oct 2020 10:41 UTC
97 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

The next AI win­ter will be due to en­ergy costs

hippke24 Nov 2020 16:53 UTC
46 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Three rea­sons to ex­pect long AI timelines

Matthew Barnett22 Apr 2021 18:44 UTC
53 points
29 comments11 min readLW link
(matthewbarnett.substack.com)

Brains and back­prop: a key timeline crux

jacobjacob9 Mar 2018 22:13 UTC
32 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

AI timeline pre­dic­tion data

Stuart_Armstrong22 Aug 2012 11:49 UTC
26 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] How does OpenAI’s lan­guage model af­fect our AI timeline es­ti­mates?

jimrandomh15 Feb 2019 3:11 UTC
50 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

SSC Jour­nal Club: AI Timelines

Scott Alexander8 Jun 2017 19:00 UTC
9 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

A model I use when mak­ing plans to re­duce AI x-risk

Ben Pace19 Jan 2018 0:21 UTC
66 points
41 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Prob­a­bil­ity that other ar­chi­tec­tures will scale as well as Trans­form­ers?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Jul 2020 19:36 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

OpenAI an­nounces GPT-3

gwern29 May 2020 1:49 UTC
67 points
23 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

GPT-3: a dis­ap­point­ing paper

nostalgebraist29 May 2020 19:06 UTC
62 points
40 comments8 min readLW link

Uber Self-Driv­ing Crash

jefftk7 Nov 2019 15:00 UTC
110 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What hap­pens to var­i­ance as neu­ral net­work train­ing is scaled? What does it im­ply about “lot­tery tick­ets”?

abramdemski28 Jul 2020 20:22 UTC
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

AI Align­ment 2018-19 Review

rohinmshah28 Jan 2020 2:19 UTC
121 points
6 comments35 min readLW link

How rapidly are GPUs im­prov­ing in price perfor­mance?

gallabytes25 Nov 2018 19:54 UTC
31 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(mediangroup.org)

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
38 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

VermillionStuka14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
27 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo5 Nov 2020 19:56 UTC
24 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo7 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC
42 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

Daniel Kokotajlo16 Nov 2020 14:05 UTC
21 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Nov 2020 12:51 UTC
16 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on Robin Han­son’s AI Im­pacts interview

Steven Byrnes24 Nov 2019 1:40 UTC
25 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Com­ments on “The Sin­gu­lar­ity is Nowhere Near”

Steven Byrnes16 Mar 2021 23:59 UTC
48 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Jan 2021 12:08 UTC
167 points
74 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal Models of Progress?

abramdemski16 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is driv­ing worth the risk?

adamzerner11 May 2021 5:04 UTC
24 points
29 comments7 min readLW link

AI and Efficiency

DragonGod27 Jul 2020 20:58 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

En­vi­ron­ments as a bot­tle­neck in AGI development

Richard_Ngo17 Jul 2020 5:02 UTC
33 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

Yud­kowsky on AGI ethics

Rob Bensinger19 Oct 2017 23:13 UTC
49 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
31 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

How spe­cial are hu­man brains among an­i­mal brains?

zhukeepa1 Apr 2020 1:35 UTC
72 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

“The Bit­ter Les­son”, an ar­ti­cle about com­pute vs hu­man knowl­edge in AI

lahwran21 Jun 2019 17:24 UTC
50 points
14 comments4 min readLW link1 nomination
(www.incompleteideas.net)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
18 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

HLAI 2018 Field Report

G Gordon Worley III29 Aug 2018 0:11 UTC
48 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How com­mon is it for one en­tity to have a 3+ year tech­nolog­i­cal lead on its near­est com­peti­tor?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Nov 2019 15:23 UTC
49 points
20 comments1 min readLW link1 nomination

Deep learn­ing—deeper flaws?

Richard_Ngo24 Sep 2018 18:40 UTC
39 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AGI will dras­ti­cally in­crease economies of scale

Wei_Dai7 Jun 2019 23:17 UTC
47 points
24 comments2 min readLW link1 nomination

Do Earths with slower eco­nomic growth have a bet­ter chance at FAI?

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Jun 2013 19:54 UTC
54 points
176 comments4 min readLW link

Mea­sur­ing hard­ware overhang

hippke5 Aug 2020 19:59 UTC
43 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Rea­sons com­pute may not drive AI ca­pa­bil­ities growth

Kythe19 Dec 2018 22:13 UTC
42 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] 10/​50/​90% chance of GPT-N Trans­for­ma­tive AI?

human_generated_text9 Aug 2020 0:10 UTC
24 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorithms vs Compute

johnswentworth28 Jan 2020 17:34 UTC
26 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 19:00 UTC
36 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Rein­ter­pret­ing “AI and Com­pute”

habryka25 Dec 2018 21:12 UTC
30 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Alex Ir­pan: “My AI Timelines Have Sped Up”

Vaniver19 Aug 2020 16:23 UTC
43 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.alexirpan.com)

Lone Ge­nius Bias and Re­turns on Ad­di­tional Researchers

ChrisHallquist1 Nov 2013 0:38 UTC
37 points
64 comments6 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence Read­ing Group 2: Fore­cast­ing AI

KatjaGrace23 Sep 2014 1:00 UTC
17 points
109 comments11 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence 27: Path­ways and enablers

KatjaGrace17 Mar 2015 1:00 UTC
15 points
21 comments8 min readLW link

Why could you be op­ti­mistic that the Sin­gu­lar­ity is Near?

gwern14 Jul 2012 23:33 UTC
34 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Se­cu­rity Mind­set and Take­off Speeds

DanielFilan27 Oct 2020 3:20 UTC
54 points
23 comments8 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

New ar­ti­cle from Oren Etzioni

alenglander25 Feb 2020 15:25 UTC
19 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What achieve­ments have peo­ple claimed will be warn­ing signs for AGI?

Richard_Ngo1 Apr 2020 10:24 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Deep­mind Plans for Rat-Level AI

moridinamael18 Aug 2016 16:26 UTC
34 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of Quan­tum Com­put­ing for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Align­ment Research

22 Aug 2019 10:33 UTC
16 points
2 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] AI Win­ter Is Com­ing—How to profit from it?

maximkazhenkov5 Dec 2020 20:23 UTC
10 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How long till In­verse AlphaFold?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Dec 2020 19:56 UTC
41 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Launch­ing the Fore­cast­ing AI Progress Tournament

Tamay7 Dec 2020 14:08 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Musk on AGI Timeframes

Artaxerxes17 Nov 2014 1:36 UTC
36 points
70 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Poll: Which vari­ables are most strate­gi­cally rele­vant?

22 Jan 2021 17:17 UTC
32 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How might cryp­tocur­ren­cies af­fect AGI timelines?

Telofy28 Feb 2021 19:16 UTC
9 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

What if AGI is near?

Wulky Wilkinsen14 Apr 2021 0:05 UTC
11 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any­thing that can stop AGI de­vel­op­ment in the near term?

Wulky Wilkinsen22 Apr 2021 20:37 UTC
4 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
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