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AI Timelines

TagLast edit: 29 Jul 2020 22:27 UTC by Ben Pace

AI Timelines is the dis­cus­sion of how long un­til var­i­ous ma­jor mile­stones in AI progress are achieved, whether it’s the timeline un­til a hu­man-level AI is de­vel­oped, the timeline un­til cer­tain bench­marks are defeated, the timeline un­til we can simu­late a mouse-level in­tel­li­gence, or some­thing else.

This is to be dis­t­in­guished from the closely re­lated ques­tion of AI take­off speeds, which is about the dy­nam­ics of AI progress af­ter hu­man-level AI is de­vel­oped (e.g. will it be a sin­gle pro­ject or the whole econ­omy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

There’s No Fire Alarm for Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Oct 2017 21:38 UTC
94 points
67 comments25 min readLW link

My cur­rent frame­work for think­ing about AGI timelines

zhukeepa30 Mar 2020 1:23 UTC
104 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Jeff Hawk­ins on neu­ro­mor­phic AGI within 20 years

steve215215 Jul 2019 19:16 UTC
165 points
14 comments12 min readLW link

hu­man psy­chol­in­guists: a crit­i­cal appraisal

nostalgebraist31 Dec 2019 0:20 UTC
170 points
53 comments16 min readLW link
(nostalgebraist.tumblr.com)

Devel­op­men­tal Stages of GPTs

orthonormal26 Jul 2020 22:03 UTC
120 points
71 comments7 min readLW link

Are we in an AI over­hang?

Andy Jones27 Jul 2020 12:48 UTC
224 points
87 comments4 min readLW link

AI timeline pre­dic­tions: are we get­ting bet­ter?

Stuart_Armstrong17 Aug 2012 7:07 UTC
56 points
81 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] To what ex­tent is GPT-3 ca­pa­ble of rea­son­ing?

TurnTrout20 Jul 2020 17:10 UTC
62 points
74 comments16 min readLW link

The un­ex­pected difficulty of com­par­ing AlphaS­tar to humans

Richard Korzekwa 18 Sep 2019 2:20 UTC
130 points
32 comments26 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

AlphaS­tar: Im­pres­sive for RL progress, not for AGI progress

orthonormal2 Nov 2019 1:50 UTC
119 points
53 comments2 min readLW link

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya Cotra18 Sep 2020 23:47 UTC
136 points
38 comments1 min readLW link

The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over

Daniel Kokotajlo22 Oct 2020 10:41 UTC
63 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Brains and back­prop: a key timeline crux

jacobjacob9 Mar 2018 22:13 UTC
89 points
34 comments7 min readLW link

The AI Timelines Scam

jessicata11 Jul 2019 2:52 UTC
45 points
79 comments7 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

AI timeline pre­dic­tion data

Stuart_Armstrong22 Aug 2012 11:49 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] How does OpenAI’s lan­guage model af­fect our AI timeline es­ti­mates?

jimrandomh15 Feb 2019 3:11 UTC
51 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

SSC Jour­nal Club: AI Timelines

Scott Alexander8 Jun 2017 19:00 UTC
8 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

A model I use when mak­ing plans to re­duce AI x-risk

Ben Pace19 Jan 2018 0:21 UTC
145 points
41 comments6 min readLW link

Can you get AGI from a Trans­former?

steve215223 Jul 2020 15:27 UTC
67 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Prob­a­bil­ity that other ar­chi­tec­tures will scale as well as Trans­form­ers?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Jul 2020 19:36 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

OpenAI an­nounces GPT-3

gwern29 May 2020 1:49 UTC
65 points
23 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

GPT-3: a dis­ap­point­ing paper

nostalgebraist29 May 2020 19:06 UTC
55 points
37 comments8 min readLW link

Uber Self-Driv­ing Crash

jefftk7 Nov 2019 15:00 UTC
113 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What hap­pens to var­i­ance as neu­ral net­work train­ing is scaled? What does it im­ply about “lot­tery tick­ets”?

abramdemski28 Jul 2020 20:22 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

AI Align­ment 2018-19 Review

rohinmshah28 Jan 2020 2:19 UTC
143 points
6 comments35 min readLW link

How rapidly are GPUs im­prov­ing in price perfor­mance?

gallabytes25 Nov 2018 19:54 UTC
32 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(mediangroup.org)

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
27 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
112 points
87 comments2 min readLW link

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habryka12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC
41 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

VermillionStuka14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
16 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

AI and Efficiency

DragonGod27 Jul 2020 20:58 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

En­vi­ron­ments as a bot­tle­neck in AGI development

Richard_Ngo17 Jul 2020 5:02 UTC
31 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

Yud­kowsky on AGI ethics

Rob Bensinger19 Oct 2017 23:13 UTC
93 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
89 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
82 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

How spe­cial are hu­man brains among an­i­mal brains?

zhukeepa1 Apr 2020 1:35 UTC
73 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

“The Bit­ter Les­son”, an ar­ti­cle about com­pute vs hu­man knowl­edge in AI

lahwran21 Jun 2019 17:24 UTC
52 points
13 comments4 min readLW link
(www.incompleteideas.net)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
49 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

HLAI 2018 Field Report

G Gordon Worley III29 Aug 2018 0:11 UTC
51 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How com­mon is it for one en­tity to have a 3+ year tech­nolog­i­cal lead on its near­est com­peti­tor?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Nov 2019 15:23 UTC
53 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Deep learn­ing—deeper flaws?

Richard_Ngo24 Sep 2018 18:40 UTC
43 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AGI will dras­ti­cally in­crease economies of scale

Wei_Dai7 Jun 2019 23:17 UTC
42 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Do Earths with slower eco­nomic growth have a bet­ter chance at FAI?

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Jun 2013 19:54 UTC
39 points
176 comments4 min readLW link

Mea­sur­ing hard­ware overhang

hippke5 Aug 2020 19:59 UTC
43 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Rea­sons com­pute may not drive AI ca­pa­bil­ities growth

Kythe19 Dec 2018 22:13 UTC
46 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] 10/​50/​90% chance of GPT-N Trans­for­ma­tive AI?

human_generated_text9 Aug 2020 0:10 UTC
25 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorithms vs Compute

johnswentworth28 Jan 2020 17:34 UTC
28 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 19:00 UTC
37 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Rein­ter­pret­ing “AI and Com­pute”

habryka25 Dec 2018 21:12 UTC
33 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Alex Ir­pan: “My AI Timelines Have Sped Up”

Vaniver19 Aug 2020 16:23 UTC
44 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.alexirpan.com)

Lone Ge­nius Bias and Re­turns on Ad­di­tional Researchers

ChrisHallquist1 Nov 2013 0:38 UTC
27 points
64 comments6 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence Read­ing Group 2: Fore­cast­ing AI

KatjaGrace23 Sep 2014 1:00 UTC
10 points
109 comments11 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence 27: Path­ways and enablers

KatjaGrace17 Mar 2015 1:00 UTC
10 points
21 comments8 min readLW link

Why could you be op­ti­mistic that the Sin­gu­lar­ity is Near?

gwern14 Jul 2012 23:33 UTC
22 points
37 comments1 min readLW link
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