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Fore­cast­ing & Prediction

TagLast edit: 8 Mar 2021 4:30 UTC by Yoav Ravid

Forecasting or Predicting is the act of making statements about what will happen in the future (and in some cases, the past). This tag is for discussion of the practice, skill, and methodology of forecasting. Posts exclusively containing object-level lists of forecasts and predictions are in Forecasts. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

See also

External links

PredictionBook, a website that keeps track of predictions and calibration levels

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
28 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Range and Fore­cast­ing Accuracy

niplav16 Nov 2020 13:06 UTC
17 points
15 comments18 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
135 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

16 types of use­ful predictions

Julia_Galef10 Apr 2015 3:31 UTC
141 points
54 comments8 min readLW link

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael Harth10 Apr 2020 17:12 UTC
118 points
48 comments9 min readLW link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – Models of im­pact and challenges

19 Dec 2019 15:50 UTC
53 points
29 comments17 min readLW link

S-Curves for Trend Forecasting

Matt Goldenberg23 Jan 2019 18:17 UTC
99 points
22 comments7 min readLW link2 nominations4 reviews

Com­pe­ti­tion: Am­plify Ro­hin’s Pre­dic­tion on AGI re­searchers & Safety Concerns

stuhlmueller21 Jul 2020 20:06 UTC
80 points
40 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:09 UTC
10 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

AGI Predictions

21 Nov 2020 3:46 UTC
103 points
35 comments4 min readLW link

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 22:00 UTC
111 points
29 comments9 min readLW link

Statis­ti­cal Pre­dic­tion Rules Out-Perform Ex­pert Hu­man Judgments

lukeprog18 Jan 2011 3:19 UTC
91 points
199 comments5 min readLW link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

KatjaGrace14 Apr 2020 0:00 UTC
163 points
23 comments31 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Failures in tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing? A re­ply to Ord and Yudkowsky

MichaelA8 May 2020 12:41 UTC
44 points
19 comments11 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
21 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter. June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:46 UTC
27 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

On Overconfidence

Scott Alexander21 Aug 2015 2:21 UTC
36 points
3 comments14 min readLW link

Fu­tur­is­tic Pre­dic­tions as Con­sum­able Goods

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Apr 2007 0:18 UTC
34 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Mul­ti­vari­ate es­ti­ma­tion & the Squig­gly language

ozziegooen5 Sep 2020 4:35 UTC
44 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Launch­ing Fore­cast, a com­mu­nity for crowd­sourced pre­dic­tions from Facebook

Rebecca Kossnick20 Oct 2020 6:20 UTC
109 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Launch­ing the Fore­cast­ing AI Progress Tournament

Tamay7 Dec 2020 14:08 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Are “su­perfore­cast­ers” a real phe­nomenon?

reallyeli9 Jan 2020 1:23 UTC
29 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

My stum­ble on COVID-19

AllAmericanBreakfast18 Apr 2020 4:32 UTC
39 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

How su­perfore­cast­ing could be manipulated

AllAmericanBreakfast17 Apr 2020 6:47 UTC
24 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing Pre­dic­tions in Hindsight

Zvi16 Apr 2020 17:20 UTC
54 points
8 comments27 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dic­tion-based medicine (PBM)

ChristianKl29 Dec 2016 22:49 UTC
37 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

[Link] Beyond the hill: thoughts on on­tolo­gies for think­ing, es­say-com­plete­ness and fore­cast­ing

jacobjacob2 Feb 2020 12:39 UTC
33 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

19 Dec 2019 15:49 UTC
62 points
10 comments14 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

Run­ning Effec­tive Struc­tured Fore­cast­ing Sessions

6 Sep 2019 21:30 UTC
21 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

How to write good AI fore­cast­ing ques­tions + Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

3 Sep 2019 14:50 UTC
29 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

29 Aug 2019 17:35 UTC
35 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

8 Aug 2019 16:10 UTC
49 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
39 points
18 comments32 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion as coordination

jacobjacob23 Jul 2019 6:19 UTC
42 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

The Pre­dic­tion Pyra­mid: Why Fun­da­men­tal Work is Needed for Pre­dic­tion Work

ozziegooen14 Feb 2019 16:21 UTC
41 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “The Sig­nal and the Noise: Why So Many Pre­dic­tions Fail—But Some Don’t.”, by Nate Silver

Douglas_Reay7 Oct 2012 7:29 UTC
16 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dict—“Log your pre­dic­tions” app

Gust17 Aug 2015 16:20 UTC
26 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Throw a pre­dic­tion party with your EA/​ra­tio­nal­ity group

eukaryote31 Dec 2016 23:02 UTC
14 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion Prac­tice: Retro­d­ic­tions on Metaculus

Raemon14 Jul 2020 18:35 UTC
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Ben­tham Prize at Metaculus

AABoyles27 Jan 2020 14:27 UTC
28 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

ozziegooen16 Oct 2019 14:23 UTC
79 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence lev­els in­side and out­side an argument

Scott Alexander16 Dec 2010 3:06 UTC
195 points
190 comments6 min readLW link

Some high­lights from Nate Silver’s “The Sig­nal and the Noise”

JonahS13 Jul 2013 15:21 UTC
35 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Jul 2020 20:10 UTC
62 points
44 comments16 min readLW link

Call for vol­un­teers: as­sess­ing Kurzweil, 2019

Stuart_Armstrong2 Apr 2020 12:07 UTC
26 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Shal­low Re­view of Con­sis­tency in State­ment Evaluation

Elizabeth9 Sep 2019 23:21 UTC
65 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?

Ben Pace10 Oct 2019 22:11 UTC
40 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Mul­ti­tudi­nous out­side views

Davidmanheim18 Aug 2020 6:21 UTC
49 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

A ques­tion about Eliezer

perpetualpeace119 Apr 2012 17:27 UTC
51 points
160 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
38 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Long-Term Tech­nolog­i­cal Forecasting

lukeprog11 Jan 2012 4:13 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

ozziegooen8 Jan 2020 12:51 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Ideas for Next Gen­er­a­tion Pre­dic­tion Technologies

ozziegooen21 Feb 2019 11:38 UTC
22 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Reflec­tions on AI Timelines Fore­cast­ing Thread

Amandango1 Sep 2020 1:42 UTC
53 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Superforecasters

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 4:55 UTC
28 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

9 Nov 2020 16:20 UTC
39 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

Time Travel Mar­kets for In­tel­lec­tual Accounting

abramdemski9 Nov 2020 16:58 UTC
37 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

Embed­ded In­ter­ac­tive Pre­dic­tions on LessWrong

Amandango20 Nov 2020 18:35 UTC
220 points
82 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Num­ber-guess­ing pro­to­col?

abramdemski7 Dec 2020 15:07 UTC
19 points
28 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per-fore­cast­ers as a ser­vice

frcassarino12 Feb 2021 13:35 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
32 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Re­s­olu­tions to the Challenge of Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim11 Mar 2021 19:08 UTC
56 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Sys­tem­atiz­ing Epistemics: Prin­ci­ples for Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim29 Mar 2021 20:46 UTC
33 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC
28 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Prevent­ing over­charg­ing by prosecutors

ChristianKl6 Apr 2021 11:13 UTC
28 points
35 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
9 points
1 comment20 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
42 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

FLI Pod­cast: On Su­perfore­cast­ing with Robert de Neufville

Palus Astra30 Apr 2020 23:08 UTC
6 points
0 comments52 min readLW link

Jan Bloch’s Im­pos­si­ble War

Hivewired17 Feb 2020 16:14 UTC
98 points
31 comments5 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Ar­gu­ment, in­tu­ition, and recursion

paulfchristiano5 Mar 2018 1:37 UTC
41 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

Seek Fair Ex­pec­ta­tions of Others’ Models

Zvi17 Oct 2017 14:30 UTC
57 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
31 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Prob­lems in AI Align­ment that philoso­phers could po­ten­tially con­tribute to

Wei_Dai17 Aug 2019 17:38 UTC
70 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Rea­son­able Explanations

Alicorn16 Jun 2019 5:29 UTC
76 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 17:08 UTC
21 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

After crit­i­cal event W hap­pens, they still won’t be­lieve you

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Jun 2013 21:59 UTC
62 points
107 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­sur­dity Heuris­tic, Ab­sur­dity Bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Sep 2007 3:20 UTC
47 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

SlateS­tarCodex 2020 Pre­dic­tions: Buy, Sell, Hold

Zvi1 May 2020 14:30 UTC
53 points
15 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Cri­tique my Model: The EV of AGI to Selfish Individuals

ozziegooen8 Apr 2018 20:04 UTC
19 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook.com—Track your calibration

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2009 0:08 UTC
40 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] His­tor­i­cal fore­cast­ing: Are there ways I can get lots of data, but only up to a cer­tain date?

Eli Tyre21 Nov 2019 17:16 UTC
38 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
50 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Sep 2007 16:39 UTC
35 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ity Is Not Sys­tem­atized Winning

namespace11 Nov 2018 22:05 UTC
36 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.thelastrationalist.com)

The File Drawer Effect and Con­for­mity Bias (Elec­tion Edi­tion)

Salemicus8 May 2015 16:51 UTC
48 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

Rais­ing the fore­cast­ing wa­ter­line (part 1)

Morendil9 Oct 2012 15:49 UTC
51 points
106 comments6 min readLW link

[LINK] Get paid to train your rationality

XFrequentist3 Aug 2011 15:01 UTC
40 points
55 comments3 min readLW link

Against easy su­per­in­tel­li­gence: the un­fore­seen fric­tion argument

Stuart_Armstrong10 Jul 2013 13:47 UTC
39 points
48 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How can guessti­mates work?

jacobjacob10 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
24 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty in a Bayesian framework

So8res24 Jul 2014 14:31 UTC
39 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

A thought-pro­cess test­ing opportunity

[deleted]22 Apr 2013 19:51 UTC
46 points
28 comments1 min readLW link

Over­con­fi­dent Pessimism

lukeprog24 Nov 2012 0:47 UTC
35 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC
25 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What to make of Aubrey de Grey’s pre­dic­tion?

Rafael Harth28 Feb 2020 19:25 UTC
23 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

I Started a Sports and Gam­bling Substack

Zvi25 Aug 2020 21:30 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­tro­duc­tion to fore­cast­ing work­sheet

edoarad6 May 2020 13:54 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foretold.io)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:38 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

[Question] Do bond yield curve in­ver­sions re­ally in­di­cate there is likely to be a re­ces­sion?

bgold10 Jul 2019 1:23 UTC
20 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

How to reach 80% of your goals. Ex­actly 80%.

Stuckwork10 Oct 2020 17:33 UTC
31 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Separat­ing the roles of the­ory and di­rect em­piri­cal ev­i­dence in be­lief for­ma­tion: the ex­am­ples of min­i­mum wage and an­thro­pogenic global warming

VipulNaik25 Jun 2014 21:47 UTC
38 points
66 comments4 min readLW link

In­trade and the Dow Drop

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Oct 2008 3:12 UTC
4 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Models pre­dict­ing sig­nifi­cant vi­o­lence in the US?

kdbscott25 Oct 2020 18:45 UTC
54 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempere13 Oct 2020 16:51 UTC
50 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

deluks91717 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
38 points
88 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
21 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

[AN #121]: Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI timelines us­ing biolog­i­cal anchors

rohinmshah14 Oct 2020 17:20 UTC
22 points
5 comments14 min readLW link
(mailchi.mp)

Ad­just­ing prob­a­bil­ities for the pas­sage of time, us­ing Squiggle

NunoSempere23 Oct 2020 18:55 UTC
16 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What fea­tures would you like a pre­dic­tion plat­form to have?

Mati_Roy13 Oct 2020 0:48 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Does play­ing hard to get work? AB test­ing for romance

amplemaple26 Oct 2020 15:29 UTC
16 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2008 4:45 UTC
14 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion should be a sport

chaosmage10 Aug 2017 7:55 UTC
21 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Dialec­ti­cal Bootstrapping

Johnicholas13 Mar 2009 17:10 UTC
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Gen­er­al­ize Kelly to Ac­count for # Iter­a­tions?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
24 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2009 8:56 UTC
11 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are good ML/​AI re­lated pre­dic­tion /​ cal­ibra­tion ques­tions for 2019?

james_t4 Jan 2019 2:40 UTC
19 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Wrong Tomorrow

Eliezer Yudkowsky2 Apr 2009 8:18 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
36 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 21:51 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(ought.org)

[Question] Is there a.. more ex­act.. way of scor­ing a pre­dic­tor’s cal­ibra­tion?

MakoYass16 Jan 2019 8:19 UTC
20 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­gram­matic Pre­dic­tion markets

whpearson25 Apr 2009 9:29 UTC
7 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook: A Short Note

Jayson_Virissimo10 Nov 2011 15:10 UTC
30 points
37 comments2 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

15 Nov 2020 21:12 UTC
67 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

SETI Predictions

hippke30 Nov 2020 20:09 UTC
21 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing is a responsibility

AllAmericanBreakfast5 Dec 2020 0:40 UTC
22 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

The New Nostradamus

Kaj_Sotala12 Sep 2009 14:42 UTC
21 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

An overview of fore­cast­ing for poli­tics, con­flict, and poli­ti­cal violence

VipulNaik24 Jun 2014 22:10 UTC
10 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Crowd-Fore­cast­ing Covid-19

followtheargument31 Dec 2020 19:30 UTC
17 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Against but­terfly effect

ForensicOceanography9 Feb 2021 7:46 UTC
5 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

Chaotic era: avoid or sur­vive?

Just Learning22 Feb 2021 1:34 UTC
3 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
12 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
76 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] How do you es­ti­mate how much you’re go­ing to like some­thing?

CTVKenney14 Mar 2021 2:33 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
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