Opinions expressed are my own and not endorsed by anyone.
Please excuse my poor reading comprehension
Formerly @ ARC Evals aka METR
lukehmiles
Karma: 850
aimless ace analyzes active amateur: a micro-aaaaalignment proposal
I wonder how a workshop that teaches participants how to love easy victory and despise hard-fought battles could work
I love this post.
I think you forgot to mention an important prerequisite. It was reasonable to assume the prereq but still worth mentioning I think. You should be looking for the W, for the clear win. It’s easy to just fart around and forget you were trying to make something happen. And in real life there are often bigger and clearer wins available than is immediately apparent. Often this takes much time and energy and creativity to see. Often the more important/urgent problem can be easier to solve. People tend to love tricky things and puzzles. It can be hard to learn to love easy victory. Pop the soccer-ball! Stab your opponent in the back while they sleep on Christmas night! Replace your sails with diesel motors! Solve your integral numerically! Use steel instead of wood! — This lesson of course well known here but it’s hard to have a consuming conversation or intriguing post about it. I often forget this.
Your writing about how/when/why having all these AIs around goes wrong is exceptionally coherent and sensical and buyable IMO. Do you have much opportunity to preach outside the choir? Do you have late-night TV skills? I think you could have a much much larger platform. And actually get a substantial and correct message across. (Or were you doing lobbying.)
“Unclear on this point” means what you think it means and is not a L I E for a spokesperson to say in my book. You got the W here already
Yeah hurts the chances then. Could get something from an unwashed piece of fruit. I think the ones that do spread person-to-person do so via eggs that make your butt itch; the eggs get on the bedsheets then Bob eats an apple in the morning. I’m still like 50⁄50 on the parasite hypothesis
Looked for sold online and broad-spectrum. Basically just google.com/search?q=broad+spectrum+dewormer+human . I ate the chocolate one myself. Idk why different parasites would be sensitive to different chemicals or anything. Didn’t check user reports at all.
I wonder how well a water cooled stovetop thermoelectric backup generator could work.
This is only 30W but air cooled https://www.tegmart.com/thermoelectric-generators/wood-stove-air-cooled-30w-teg
You could use a fish tank water pump to bring water to/from the sink. Just fill up a bowl of water with the faucet and stick the tube in it. Leave the faucet running. Put a filter on the bowl. Float switch to detect low water, run wire with the water tube
Normal natural gas generator like $5k-10k and you have to be homeowner
I think really wide kettle with coily bottom is super efficient at heat absorption. Doesn’t have to be dishwasher safe obviously, unlike a pan.
I guess the vague idea is in the water. Just never saw it stated so explicitly. Not a big deal.
I was pretty confused why they didn’t focus on memory instead of flops. Maybe it was just a bad bet? Who would have made that bet? IIRC, memory speed was widely known to be The Thing for at least five years.
Pretty sure you can improve on memory speed tremendously if the order-of-access is known before design. Weird they apparently didn’t do that¿
I think the main way to bet is to find some equity and buy it. Might be hard to find.
New fast transformer inference ASIC — Sohu by Etched
Sorry to be that guy but maybe this idea shouldn’t be posted publicly (I never read it before)
(Quoting my recent comment)
Apparently in the US we are too ashamed to say we have “worms” or “parasites”, so instead we say we have “helminths”. Using this keyword makes google work. This article estimates at least 5 million people (possibly far more) in the US have one of the 6 considered parasites. Other parasites may also be around. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7847297/ (table 1)
This is way more infections than I thought!!
Note the weird symptoms. Blurry vision, headache, respiratory illness, blindness, impaired cognition, fever… Not just IBS and anemia!
The author does not appear to be a crank
If you do this I would recommend taking 3 days between each one, then waiting 2-3 weeks for eggs to hatch, then taking each again. Were you gardening or anything when you first got sick?
Apparently in the US we are too ashamed to say we have “worms” or “parasites”, so instead we say we have “helminths”. Using this keyword makes google work. This article estimates at least 5 million people (possibly far more) in the US have one of 6 considered parasites. Other parasites may also be around. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7847297/
Note the weird symptoms. Blurry vision, headache, respiratory illness, blindness, impaired cognition, fever… Not just IBS and anemia!
Edit: just this single medicine might be better than the below three combined. Bet offer now stands for this single medicine or the below three instead.
I offer to bet my $300 against your $600 that taking these three dewormers cures your condition
Very good counterpoint
Hmm I didn’t spend 47 hours watching the interview, reading all three long posts, and clicking the central links but
Is this not just a dude tryna make a buck here?
I mean if you start a fund to make money on orange dogs (at the same exact time you wrote your essays) then you should be totally ignored when you talk about how great and necessary orange dogs are?
I wonder if maybe the rate of infections is vastly underestimated (most fungus/bacteria/protozoa/archaea/animals don’t show up on most tests) and just keeping your body very acidic indefinitely could be worth it overall. If most of the benefit comes from preventing initial infection from a handful of nasty permanent things (eg toxoplasmosis) then you probably wouldn’t observe benefits to vitamin C supplementation in studies except over very long time scales or with very young children
It’s unbelievable how similar/convergent the big LLMs are. Only a slight improvement with 100x compute?? People have much bigger differences with much less variation of the core inputs (eg number of neurons). I wonder what the best explanation is. I can think of a few mediocre explanations.