Probability & Statistics

Tag

How long does it take to become Gaussian?

Maxwell Peterson8 Dec 2020 7:23 UTC

143 points

40 comments4 min readLW link

X explains Z% of the variance in Y

Leon Lang20 Jun 2025 12:17 UTC

161 points

36 comments9 min readLW link

Simpson’s Paradox

bentarm12 Jan 2011 23:01 UTC

99 points

58 comments4 min readLW link

Approximately Bayesian Reasoning: Knightian Uncertainty, Goodhart, and the Look-Elsewhere Effect

RogerDearnaley26 Jan 2024 3:58 UTC

25 points

2 comments11 min readLW link

How much do you believe your results?

Eric Neyman6 May 2023 20:31 UTC

537 points

19 comments15 min readLW link 4 reviews

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Laplace’s rule of succession

Ege Erdil23 Nov 2021 15:48 UTC

56 points

2 comments7 min readLW link

Can we always assign, and make sense of, subjective probabilities?

MichaelA17 Jan 2020 3:05 UTC

11 points

15 comments13 min readLW link

Risk and uncertainty: A false dichotomy?

MichaelA18 Jan 2020 3:09 UTC

6 points

10 comments20 min readLW link

An Illustrated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

[deleted]8 Jun 2020 1:54 UTC

20 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(mlu.red)

Correspondence visualizations for different interpretations of “probability”

So8res10 May 2019 17:10 UTC

43 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

Report likelihood ratios

Ege Erdil23 Apr 2022 17:10 UTC

80 points

9 comments7 min readLW link

Message Length

Zack_M_Davis20 Oct 2020 5:52 UTC

139 points

25 comments12 min readLW link

A time-invariant version of Laplace’s rule

Jsevillamol and Ege Erdil

15 Jul 2022 19:28 UTC

76 points

13 comments17 min readLW link

(epochai.org)

The Kelly Criterion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC

47 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

How to Understand and Mitigate Risk

Trinley Goldenberg12 Mar 2019 10:14 UTC

55 points

30 comments16 min readLW link

Fermi Estimates

lukeprog11 Apr 2013 17:52 UTC

121 points

110 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] What is a probabilistic physical theory?

Ege Erdil25 Dec 2021 16:30 UTC

15 points

36 comments2 min readLW link

A Bayesian Aggregation Paradox

Jsevillamol22 Nov 2021 10:39 UTC

87 points

23 comments7 min readLW link

On martingales

Joey Marcellino19 Sep 2023 11:39 UTC

8 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life

Scott Alexander25 Sep 2018 19:10 UTC

182 points

39 comments7 min readLW link 4 reviews

(slatestarcodex.com)

Epsilon is not a probability, it’s a cop-out

Shmi15 Feb 2022 2:48 UTC

24 points

35 comments1 min readLW link

Visualisation of Probability Mass

brook25 Jan 2023 15:09 UTC

7 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Book review: Pearl’s Book of Why

PeterMcCluskey7 Jul 2018 17:30 UTC

69 points

8 comments6 min readLW link

(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Intention to Treat

Alicorn20 Mar 2025 20:01 UTC

214 points

7 comments2 min readLW link

Generalised models: imperfect morphisms and informational entropy

Stuart_Armstrong9 Jul 2021 17:35 UTC

9 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

Aumann’s Agreement Revisited

agilecaveman27 Aug 2018 6:21 UTC

6 points

1 comment7 min readLW link

How to do cost-effectiveness analysis for elections

Zach Stein-Perlman25 Mar 2026 15:00 UTC

28 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

scipy.optimize.curve_fit Is Awesome

niplav7 May 2022 10:57 UTC

20 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are principled ways for penalising complexity in practice?

Bucky27 Jun 2019 7:28 UTC

36 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

The problem/solution matrix: Calculating the probability of AI safety “on the back of an envelope”

John_Maxwell20 Oct 2019 8:03 UTC

22 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

Categorizing Selection Effects

romeostevensit3 Dec 2025 20:32 UTC

46 points

6 comments5 min readLW link

Logical induction for software engineers

Alex Flint3 Dec 2022 19:55 UTC

163 points

8 comments27 min readLW link 1 review

Very Short Introduction to Bayesian Model Comparison

johnswentworth16 Jul 2019 19:48 UTC

32 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Certain That 53 Is Prime

ChrisHallquist7 Nov 2013 7:45 UTC

95 points

70 comments6 min readLW link

The central limit theorem in terms of convolutions

Maxwell Peterson21 Nov 2020 4:09 UTC

38 points

16 comments4 min readLW link

The Ap Distribution

criticalpoints24 Aug 2024 21:45 UTC

22 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

(eregis.github.io)

You will crash your car in front of my house within the next week

Richard Korzekwa 1 Apr 2025 21:43 UTC

81 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Beautiful Probability

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Jan 2008 7:19 UTC

125 points

124 comments6 min readLW link

“A Definition of Subjective Probability” by Anscombe and Aumann

JonahS24 Jan 2014 20:30 UTC

14 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

The purposeful drunkard

Dmitry Vaintrob12 Jan 2025 12:27 UTC

103 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

Quadratic models and (un)falsified data

Bucky8 Mar 2020 23:34 UTC

32 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

12 interesting things I learned studying the discovery of nature’s laws

Ben Pace19 Feb 2022 23:39 UTC

276 points

41 comments9 min readLW link 1 review

“Inductive Bias”

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 Apr 2007 19:52 UTC

43 points

24 comments3 min readLW link

Bayesian Networks Aren’t Necessarily Causal

Zack_M_Davis14 May 2023 1:42 UTC

104 points

38 comments8 min readLW link 1 review

“Prediction” and “explanation” are not causation

jasoncrawford24 Oct 2020 18:55 UTC

14 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

(twitter.com)

Probability Space & Aumann Agreement

Wei Dai10 Dec 2009 21:57 UTC

56 points

76 comments5 min readLW link

Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language

ozziegooen5 Sep 2020 4:35 UTC

44 points

5 comments7 min readLW link

Calculating Kelly

abramdemski22 Feb 2021 17:32 UTC

37 points

18 comments3 min readLW link

Trust in Bayes

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Jan 2008 23:12 UTC

43 points

28 comments8 min readLW link

Generalized Stat Mech: The Boltzmann Approach

David Lorell and johnswentworth

12 Apr 2024 17:47 UTC

71 points

7 comments20 min readLW link

References & Resources for LessWrong

XiXiDu10 Oct 2010 14:54 UTC

174 points

104 comments20 min readLW link

The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Feb 2008 0:48 UTC

238 points

76 comments9 min readLW link

E.T. Jaynes Probability Theory: The logic of Science I

Jan Christian Refsgaard and dentalperson

27 Dec 2023 23:47 UTC

67 points

22 comments21 min readLW link

Average probabilities, not log odds

AlexMennen12 Nov 2021 21:39 UTC

27 points

20 comments5 min readLW link

Case study: abuse of frequentist statistics

Cyan21 Feb 2010 6:35 UTC

46 points

100 comments3 min readLW link

The Case for Frequentism: Why Bayesian Probability is Fundamentally Unsound and What Science Does Instead

lsusr3 Apr 2022 20:52 UTC

22 points

29 comments6 min readLW link

Fairly Breaking Ties Without Fair Coins

Brendan Long11 Nov 2025 21:48 UTC

11 points

10 comments4 min readLW link

(www.brendanlong.com)

Probability as Minimal Map

johnswentworth1 Sep 2019 19:19 UTC

55 points

10 comments6 min readLW link

Insights from “All of Statistics”: Probability

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:48 UTC

7 points

0 comments14 min readLW link

Bayesianism for humans: “probable enough”

BT_Uytya2 Sep 2014 21:44 UTC

52 points

7 comments4 min readLW link

Statistical models & the irrelevance of rare exceptions

patrissimo7 May 2023 15:59 UTC

36 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

Randomness Testing with Bayesian Stats

DaemonicSigil26 Jun 2026 20:28 UTC

5 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics

Scott Alexander3 Sep 2017 20:56 UTC

91 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

The Univariate Fallacy

Zack_M_Davis15 Jun 2019 21:43 UTC

34 points

15 comments3 min readLW link

[Cosmology Talks] New Probability Axioms Could Fix Cosmology’s Multiverse (Partially) - Sylvia Wenmackers

mako yass14 Apr 2024 1:26 UTC

18 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(www.youtube.com)

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’s Theorem

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Jan 2003 20:00 UTC

80 points

12 comments25 min readLW link

Stanzas On Power Calculation

DirectedEvolution5 Feb 2023 19:15 UTC

9 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Confidence levels inside and outside an argument

Scott Alexander16 Dec 2010 3:06 UTC

248 points

192 comments6 min readLW link

What makes a probability question “well-defined”? (Part II: Bertrand’s Paradox)

Noah Topper3 Jan 2023 22:39 UTC

7 points

3 comments9 min readLW link

(naivebayes.substack.com)

Book Review: Fooled by Randomness

Sherrinford13 Jul 2020 21:02 UTC

34 points

10 comments5 min readLW link

When is correlation transitive?

Ege Erdil23 Jun 2023 16:09 UTC

85 points

7 comments6 min readLW link

A Butterfly’s View of Probability

Gabriel Wu15 Jun 2022 2:14 UTC

29 points

17 comments11 min readLW link

Bayesian Model Testing Comparisons

johnswentworth20 Jul 2019 16:40 UTC

18 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Cross-Validation vs Bayesian Model Comparison

johnswentworth21 Jul 2019 18:14 UTC

30 points

2 comments4 min readLW link

Causal Inference Sequence Part 1: Basic Terminology and the Assumptions of Causal Inference

Anders_H30 Jul 2014 20:56 UTC

46 points

26 comments10 min readLW link

Most likely is not likely

Malmesbury12 Feb 2022 17:27 UTC

17 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Beyond Bayesians and Frequentists

jsteinhardt31 Oct 2012 7:03 UTC

55 points

51 comments11 min readLW link

What is Bayesianism?

Kaj_Sotala26 Feb 2010 7:43 UTC

120 points

218 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What does “probability” really mean?

sisyphus28 Dec 2022 3:20 UTC

6 points

20 comments1 min readLW link

Confidence intervals seem to be rarely useful, in and of themselves

anorangicc5 Feb 2022 11:23 UTC

1 point

4 comments3 min readLW link

On Frequentism and Bayesian Dogma

DanielFilan and Adrià Garriga-alonso

15 Oct 2023 22:23 UTC

59 points

27 comments6 min readLW link

“Statistical Bias”

Eliezer Yudkowsky30 Mar 2007 18:55 UTC

22 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

Validating against a misalignment detector is very different to training against one

mattmacdermott4 Mar 2025 15:41 UTC

61 points

6 comments4 min readLW link

Latent Variables and Model Mis-Specification

jsteinhardt7 Nov 2018 14:48 UTC

24 points

8 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Why correlation, though?

numpyNaN6 Mar 2024 16:53 UTC

23 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Neural uncertainty estimation review article (for alignment)

Charlie Steiner5 Dec 2023 8:01 UTC

74 points

3 comments11 min readLW link

Radical Probabilism

abramdemski18 Aug 2020 21:14 UTC

191 points

49 comments35 min readLW link 1 review

How can one rationally have very high or very low probabilities of extinction in a pre-paradigmatic field?

Shmi30 Apr 2023 21:53 UTC

48 points

15 comments1 min readLW link

Two Dark Side Statistics Papers

Scott Alexander2 Jan 2014 5:51 UTC

45 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

Practicing Bayesian Epistemology with “Two Boys” Probability Puzzles

Liron2 Jan 2025 4:42 UTC

45 points

14 comments6 min readLW link

Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence

CallumMcDougall12 Oct 2022 21:07 UTC

188 points

27 comments10 min readLW link 1 review

(www.perfectlynormal.co.uk)

“How the Gaza Health Ministry Fakes Casualty Numbers”

CronoDAS12 Apr 2024 5:57 UTC

−11 points

9 comments1 min readLW link

(www.tabletmag.com)

The Joys of Conjugate Priors

TCB21 May 2011 2:41 UTC

63 points

24 comments5 min readLW link

Why square errors?

Aprillion26 Nov 2022 13:40 UTC

41 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

The Effectiveness Of Masks is Limited

Mike Harris21 Sep 2021 17:03 UTC

24 points

7 comments6 min readLW link

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, Jaynes

David Udell16 Feb 2023 21:57 UTC

29 points

0 comments18 min readLW link

Steelmanning heuristic arguments

Dmitry Vaintrob13 Apr 2025 1:09 UTC

77 points

1 comment17 min readLW link

0 and 1 aren’t probabilities

Alok Singh1 Jan 2023 0:09 UTC

2 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

(en.wikipedia.org)

Are Bayesian methods guaranteed to overfit?

Ege Erdil17 Jun 2023 12:52 UTC

52 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

(www.yulingyao.com)

Why the tails come apart

Thrasymachus1 Aug 2014 22:41 UTC

352 points

102 comments7 min readLW link

Should correlation coefficients be expressed as angles?

Sniffnoy28 Nov 2012 0:05 UTC

108 points

25 comments2 min readLW link

Rethinking Laplace’s Rule of Succession

Cleo Nardo22 Nov 2024 18:46 UTC

14 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Thoughts on the SPIES Forecasting Method?

T43119 Mar 2022 15:22 UTC

20 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

Logits, log-odds, and loss for parallel circuits

Dmitry Vaintrob20 Jan 2025 9:56 UTC

57 points

4 comments11 min readLW link

Subscripts for Probabilities

niplav13 Apr 2023 18:32 UTC

67 points

9 comments5 min readLW link

Hypothesis Space Entropy

lsusr14 May 2021 7:21 UTC

17 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Causal Inference Sequence Part II: Graphical Models

Anders_H4 Aug 2014 23:10 UTC

15 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

Events of Low Probability: Buridan’s Principle

Nikita Gladkov7 May 2025 18:46 UTC

12 points

1 comment10 min readLW link

The average North Korean mathematician

Malmesbury7 Mar 2021 17:28 UTC

69 points

19 comments8 min readLW link

(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

Chance is in the Map, not the Territory

Daniel Herrmann, ben_levinstein and Aydin Mohseni

13 Jan 2025 19:17 UTC

68 points

18 comments7 min readLW link

Searching for outliers

benkuhn21 Mar 2022 2:40 UTC

169 points

16 comments18 min readLW link 1 review

(www.benkuhn.net)

Book Review—Probability and Finance: It’s Only a Game!

ryan_b23 Jan 2018 18:52 UTC

18 points

9 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] How Often Does ¬Correlation ⇏ ¬Causation?

niplav2 Apr 2024 17:58 UTC

19 points

17 comments2 min readLW link

Map:Territory::Uncertainty::Randomness – but that doesn’t matter, value of information does.

Davidmanheim22 Jan 2016 19:12 UTC

8 points

21 comments3 min readLW link

AXRP Episode 36 - Adam Shai and Paul Riechers on Computational Mechanics

DanielFilan29 Sep 2024 5:50 UTC

26 points

0 comments55 min readLW link

If you’re not sure how to sort a list or grid—seriate it!

gwern28 May 2025 3:54 UTC

222 points

9 comments3 min readLW link

(www.jstatsoft.org)

Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books

Jan Christian Refsgaard21 May 2021 10:23 UTC

68 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

Use Normal Predictions

Jan Christian Refsgaard9 Jan 2022 15:01 UTC

149 points

67 comments6 min readLW link

Probability, knowledge, and meta-probability

David_Chapman17 Sep 2013 0:02 UTC

60 points

73 comments5 min readLW link

Insights from “All of Statistics”: Statistical Inference

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:49 UTC

8 points

0 comments18 min readLW link

How Gay is the Vatican?

rba6 Apr 2025 21:27 UTC

64 points

34 comments7 min readLW link

Reference Classes

Chris_Leong7 Sep 2020 12:52 UTC

10 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

Information Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC

29 points

6 comments13 min readLW link

Rugby & Regression Towards the Mean

Bucky30 Oct 2019 16:36 UTC

15 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

Pseudorandomness contest: prizes, results, and analysis

Eric Neyman15 Jan 2021 6:24 UTC

169 points

22 comments20 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

From Laplace to BIC

johnswentworth19 Jul 2019 16:52 UTC

23 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Precision of Sets of Forecasts

niplav19 Sep 2023 18:19 UTC

20 points

5 comments10 min readLW link

[Question] What does it mean for an event or observation to have probability 0 or 1 in Bayesian terms?

Noosphere8917 Sep 2024 17:28 UTC

1 point

22 comments1 min readLW link

Forum Karma: view stats and find highly-rated comments for any LW user

Max H1 Jul 2023 15:36 UTC

60 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

(forumkarma.com)

Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

Bucky6 Oct 2020 17:34 UTC

24 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] Infinite tower of meta-probability

bilibili19 Oct 2023 16:44 UTC

6 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Probability interpretations: Examples

So8res11 May 2019 20:32 UTC

39 points

23 comments5 min readLW link

My thoughts on correlation and causation

Victor Porton11 Dec 2024 5:08 UTC

−13 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is it true that most studies in Kahneman’s ‘Thinking fast and slow’ are not replicable and the book is largely not supported by evidence?

Davy Jones30 Jun 2021 7:14 UTC

19 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Does there exist a detailed Bayesian COVID tracker?

Optimization Process12 Nov 2020 5:06 UTC

8 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

The Prediction Hierarchy

RobinZ19 Jan 2010 3:36 UTC

28 points

38 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Beyond Benchmarks: A Psychometric Approach to AI Evaluation

Kareem Soliman27 Jul 2025 16:09 UTC

1 point

0 comments8 min readLW link

Too good to be true

PhilGoetz11 Jul 2014 20:16 UTC

35 points

121 comments4 min readLW link

Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?

rba22 Jan 2026 19:24 UTC

141 points

11 comments5 min readLW link

(goflaw.substack.com)

DSLT 2. Why Neural Networks obey Occam’s Razor

Liam Carroll18 Jun 2023 0:23 UTC

31 points

17 comments17 min readLW link

How Not to be Stupid: Adorable Maybes

Psy-Kosh29 Apr 2009 19:15 UTC

1 point

55 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Do Bayesians like Bayesian model Averaging?

[deleted]2 Aug 2021 12:24 UTC

4 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

Anti-akrasia tool: like stickK.com for data nerds

dreeves10 Oct 2011 2:09 UTC

82 points

88 comments2 min readLW link

Wolf’s Dice II: What Asymmetry?

johnswentworth17 Jul 2019 15:22 UTC

38 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is LessWrong dead without Cox’s theorem?

[deleted]4 Sep 2021 5:45 UTC

−2 points

89 comments1 min readLW link

Lizardmen are Not Constant—A Introductory Primer to Thinking about Survey Data

DanielW1 Jun 2026 0:28 UTC

22 points

3 comments9 min readLW link

Optimum number of items to inspect before buying one

bilibili8 Jul 2026 21:23 UTC

18 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

DSLT 1. The RLCT Measures the Effective Dimension of Neural Networks

Liam Carroll16 Jun 2023 9:50 UTC

62 points

11 comments15 min readLW link

Covariance in your sample vs covariance in the general population

RomeoStevens16 May 2012 0:17 UTC

41 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

The median and mode use less information than the mean does

Maxwell Peterson1 Apr 2022 21:25 UTC

10 points

11 comments4 min readLW link

If-then question about what it means to be “Naive” in discourse.

Hoegarden25 Sep 2026 12:35 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident

boggler18 Mar 2018 22:21 UTC

25 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

Diseased disciplines: the strange case of the inverted chart

Morendil7 Feb 2012 9:45 UTC

63 points

150 comments4 min readLW link

MetaMed: Evidence-Based Healthcare

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Mar 2013 13:16 UTC

114 points

194 comments6 min readLW link

Probably you won’t be able to perform a data-driven habit stacking for self-improvement

siarshai13 Mar 2026 18:03 UTC

47 points

8 comments17 min readLW link

If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty...

ata12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC

148 points

28 comments8 min readLW link

Frequentist Statistics are Frequently Subjective

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Dec 2009 20:22 UTC

85 points

82 comments8 min readLW link

Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine

Anders_H25 Oct 2019 20:53 UTC

49 points

14 comments7 min readLW link

Intention-to-Treat (Re: How harmful is music, really?)

kqr18 Sep 2024 18:44 UTC

11 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

(entropicthoughts.com)

Can we do useful meta-analysis? Unjournal evaluations of “Meaningfully reducing consumption of meat… is an unsolved problem...”

david reinstein7 Nov 2025 0:40 UTC

2 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Subtext is not invariant under linear transformations

PhilGoetz23 Mar 2010 15:49 UTC

47 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

When Is Insurance Worth It?

kqr19 Dec 2024 19:07 UTC

182 points

73 comments4 min readLW link 1 review

(entropicthoughts.com)

Requirements for a STEM-capable AGI Value Learner (my Case for Less Doom)

RogerDearnaley25 May 2023 9:26 UTC

35 points

3 comments15 min readLW link

Even if you have a nail, not all hammers are the same

PhilGoetz29 Mar 2010 18:09 UTC

150 points

126 comments6 min readLW link

Crypto quant trading: Intro

Alexei17 Apr 2019 20:52 UTC

62 points

17 comments5 min readLW link

Born as the seventh month dies …

Rudi C10 Jul 2020 15:07 UTC

6 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

indexical uncertainty and the Axiom of Independence

Wei Dai7 Jun 2009 9:18 UTC

29 points

79 comments3 min readLW link

Eliezer’s example on Bayesian statistics is wr… oops!

Zane17 Oct 2023 18:38 UTC

72 points

13 comments7 min readLW link

Convolution as smoothing

Maxwell Peterson25 Nov 2020 6:00 UTC

29 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

A hundredth of a bit of extra entropy

Adam Scherlis24 Dec 2022 21:12 UTC

84 points

4 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are (Motor)sports like F1 a good thing to calibrate estimates against?

CstineSublime24 Mar 2024 9:07 UTC

4 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

The Pyramid And The Garden

Scott Alexander5 Nov 2016 6:03 UTC

67 points

13 comments7 min readLW link

New Improved Lottery

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Apr 2007 23:42 UTC

150 points

45 comments2 min readLW link

Punctuality—Arriving on Time and Math

Xachariah3 May 2012 1:35 UTC

136 points

40 comments5 min readLW link

Debunked And Well-Refuted

Scott Alexander13 Dec 2014 12:08 UTC

58 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

Circular Altruism

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2008 18:00 UTC

93 points

312 comments4 min readLW link

Probability distributions and writing style

dclayh4 Jun 2009 6:17 UTC

7 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)

Morendil9 Oct 2012 15:49 UTC

51 points

107 comments6 min readLW link

A conceptual precursor to today’s language machines [Shannon]

Bill Benzon15 Nov 2023 13:50 UTC

25 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

Imagine a World Where Governments Treated COVID-19 Properly

jdcampolargo12 Aug 2020 22:52 UTC

−2 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Probability vs Likelihood

abramdemski10 Nov 2020 21:28 UTC

114 points

10 comments12 min readLW link

Lotteries: A Waste of Hope

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Apr 2007 5:36 UTC

116 points

75 comments2 min readLW link

Charting Deaths: Reality vs Reported

[deleted]30 Mar 2018 0:50 UTC

13 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

(owenshen24.github.io)

Inspection Paradox as a Driver of Group Separation

Shmi17 Aug 2019 21:47 UTC

29 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Underspecified Probabilities: A Thought Experiment

Alexander Heckett4 Oct 2023 22:25 UTC

8 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

Review: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way by Will Kurt

matto19 Nov 2022 18:52 UTC

4 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Halpern’s paper—A refutation of Cox’s theorem?

[deleted]11 Aug 2021 9:25 UTC

13 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Excessive EDA Effortposting

abstractapplic3 Jun 2018 19:17 UTC

44 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

Against NHST

gwern21 Dec 2012 4:45 UTC

95 points

66 comments4 min readLW link

An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

Eric Neyman7 Dec 2020 22:43 UTC

39 points

7 comments8 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Intrinsic Dimension of Prompts in LLMs

Karthik Viswanathan14 Feb 2025 19:02 UTC

3 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

The dangers of zero and one

PhilGoetz21 Nov 2013 12:21 UTC

48 points

68 comments3 min readLW link

Using degrees of freedom to change the past for fun and profit

CarlShulman7 Mar 2012 2:51 UTC

65 points

23 comments9 min readLW link

The Fallacy of Large Numbers

dspeyer12 Aug 2012 18:39 UTC

30 points

31 comments2 min readLW link

Algorithmically Mediated Communication: The End of Cognitive Friction

civeng5 Mar 2026 20:47 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

The Clueless Sniper and the Principle of Indifference

Jim Buhler27 Jan 2025 11:52 UTC

11 points

26 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What is the most probable AI?

Zeruel01720 Jun 2022 23:26 UTC

−2 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

Markov’s Inequality Explained

criticalpoints8 Jan 2025 0:31 UTC

13 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

(eregis.github.io)

How Lesswrong helped me make $25K: A rational pricing strategy

kareemabukhadra21 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC

58 points

21 comments3 min readLW link

Bayes’ Theorem in three pictures

Sunny from QAD21 Jul 2019 7:01 UTC

30 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

What would convince you you’d won the lottery?

Stuart_Armstrong10 Oct 2017 13:45 UTC

28 points

11 comments4 min readLW link

Playing Possum: The Variability Hypothesis

rba6 Mar 2026 14:48 UTC

22 points

1 comment6 min readLW link

(goflaw.substack.com)

A compilation of misuses of statistics

Younes Kamel14 Feb 2022 21:53 UTC

4 points

11 comments13 min readLW link

(youneskamel.substack.com)

DSLT 4. Phase Transitions in Neural Networks

Liam Carroll24 Jun 2023 17:22 UTC

36 points

3 comments16 min readLW link

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Jul 2008 10:58 UTC

86 points

47 comments6 min readLW link

Kling, Probability, and Economics

matt30 Mar 2009 5:15 UTC

1 point

3 comments1 min readLW link

Modelling variation in the METR Uplift Study

cdt5 Sep 2026 22:14 UTC

16 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Representing Irrationality in Game Theory

Larry Lee13 Dec 2024 0:50 UTC

−1 points

3 comments11 min readLW link

Monty Hall in the Wild

Jacob Falkovich6 Jun 2018 18:03 UTC

24 points

9 comments6 min readLW link

A Fervent Defense of Frequentist Statistics

jsteinhardt18 Feb 2014 20:08 UTC

76 points

129 comments16 min readLW link

Loss Curves

programjames6 May 2025 22:22 UTC

16 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

(github.com)

Probability space has 2 metrics

Donald Hobson10 Feb 2019 0:28 UTC

111 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

The Solution to Sleeping Beauty

Ape in the coat4 Mar 2024 6:46 UTC

20 points

79 comments13 min readLW link

Techniques for probability estimates

Scott Alexander4 Jan 2011 23:38 UTC

119 points

60 comments7 min readLW link

Probability is Subjectively Objective

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Jul 2008 9:16 UTC

43 points

72 comments11 min readLW link

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Jan 2008 6:58 UTC

138 points

149 comments5 min readLW link

Assign Probabilities Functorially

kaleb17 Jul 2025 1:49 UTC

8 points

6 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Jaynes-Cox Probability: Are plausibilities objective?

[deleted]12 Aug 2021 14:23 UTC

9 points

17 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Calibration training for ‘percentile rankings’?

david reinstein14 Sep 2024 21:51 UTC

3 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

From game theory to players theory

Victor Porton15 Sep 2023 6:23 UTC

−4 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

Math-to-English Cheat Sheet

nahoj8 Apr 2024 9:19 UTC

54 points

5 comments6 min readLW link

[Draft] Poker With Lennier

HonoreDB10 Nov 2011 17:14 UTC

29 points

5 comments5 min readLW link

Visualizing the power of multiple step selection processes in JS: Galton’s bean machine

gwern12 Jan 2019 17:58 UTC

27 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(www.gwern.net)

“Genlangs” and Zipf’s Law: Do languages generated by ChatGPT statistically look human?

Justin-Diamond31 Jan 2024 18:30 UTC

2 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

Deconfusing Landauer’s Principle

EuanMcLean27 May 2022 17:58 UTC

58 points

16 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] Causal without correlation, how?

MoritzG30 Aug 2021 16:43 UTC

2 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

A Generalization of ROC AUC for Binary Classifiers

Adam Scherlis4 Dec 2021 21:47 UTC

10 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

(adam.scherlis.com)

[Question] Has Van Horn fixed Cox’s theorem?

[deleted]29 Aug 2021 18:36 UTC

9 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Uncertainty Hedging or Irrationality?

SeventhOrisa12 Nov 2025 14:13 UTC

1 point

0 comments4 min readLW link

(open.substack.com)

“No evidence” as a Valley of Bad Rationality

Biff Wiff28 Mar 2020 23:45 UTC

106 points

21 comments2 min readLW link 1 review

No nonsense version of the “racial algorithm bias”

Yuxi_Liu13 Jul 2019 15:39 UTC

115 points

20 comments2 min readLW link

Anti-correlated causation

DirectedEvolution6 Dec 2021 4:36 UTC

18 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

The Japanese Quiz: a Thought Experiment of Statistical Epistemology

DanB8 Apr 2021 17:37 UTC

11 points

0 comments9 min readLW link

The AI Control Problem in a wider intellectual context

philosophybear13 Jan 2023 0:28 UTC

11 points

3 comments12 min readLW link

Learning as you play: anthropic shadow in deadly games

dr_s12 Aug 2023 7:34 UTC

37 points

28 comments35 min readLW link

Shut Up And Guess

Scott Alexander21 Jul 2009 4:04 UTC

131 points

110 comments5 min readLW link

Making better estimates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 17:40 UTC

11 points

5 comments10 min readLW link

Finding the Central Limit Theorem in Bayes’ rule

Maxwell Peterson27 Nov 2021 5:48 UTC

25 points

11 comments3 min readLW link

VC Theory Overview

Joar Skalse2 Jul 2023 22:45 UTC

12 points

2 comments11 min readLW link

Poker with Lennier

HonoreDB15 Nov 2011 22:21 UTC

26 points

15 comments6 min readLW link

How to come up with verbal probabilities

jimmy29 Apr 2009 8:35 UTC

27 points

20 comments3 min readLW link

Sample means, how do they work?

Benquo20 Nov 2016 21:04 UTC

34 points

7 comments3 min readLW link

Log-odds (or logits)

brilee28 Nov 2011 1:11 UTC

31 points

21 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] “Fewer than X% of Americans know Y”

Nisan10 Oct 2012 16:59 UTC

71 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

Book Review: The End of Average

Vanilla_cabs14 Oct 2021 1:49 UTC

17 points

3 comments8 min readLW link

Predicting AGI by the Turing Test

Yuxi_Liu22 Jan 2024 4:22 UTC

21 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

(yuxi-liu-wired.github.io)

Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They’re Unbiased)

HoldenKarnofsky18 Aug 2011 23:34 UTC

123 points

253 comments17 min readLW link

Crypto quant trading: Naive Bayes

Alexei7 May 2019 19:29 UTC

33 points

13 comments4 min readLW link

Don’t be afraid of the thousand-year-old vampire

Ulisse Mini18 Apr 2022 1:22 UTC

38 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Standard deviations from just two values

kqr27 May 2026 5:01 UTC

43 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

(entropicthoughts.com)

[Question] Current State of Probabilistic Logic

Alexander Heckett7 Oct 2023 5:06 UTC

3 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

History of LessWrong: Some Data Graphics

Said Achmiz16 Nov 2018 7:07 UTC

72 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

How subjective is attractiveness?

JonahS13 Jan 2015 0:04 UTC

51 points

38 comments4 min readLW link

Unknown Probabilities

transhumanist_atom_understander27 Nov 2023 2:30 UTC

28 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] Jaynesian interpretation—How does “estimating probabilities” make sense?

[deleted]21 Jul 2021 21:36 UTC

4 points

40 comments1 min readLW link

Multiplicitous

Jacob Falkovich18 Dec 2016 16:39 UTC

9 points

0 comments12 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing

Stuart_Armstrong20 Sep 2013 20:19 UTC

63 points

23 comments2 min readLW link

Counterintuitive Coin Toss. Part I

PaulTheHuman11 Apr 2026 3:11 UTC

−1 points

0 comments14 min readLW link

Retrospective forecasting

Ege Erdil30 Jan 2022 16:38 UTC

23 points

6 comments5 min readLW link

Frequentist Magic vs. Bayesian Magic

Wei Dai8 Apr 2010 20:34 UTC

58 points

83 comments3 min readLW link

Common Probability Distributions

jsteinhardt2 Dec 2021 1:50 UTC

45 points

3 comments5 min readLW link

(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Causality does not imply correlation

Richard_Kennaway8 Jul 2009 0:52 UTC

18 points

58 comments4 min readLW link

Why Bet Kelly?

Joe Zimmerman29 Nov 2022 18:47 UTC

16 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

Wolf’s Dice

johnswentworth16 Jul 2019 19:50 UTC

39 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

The highest-probability outcome can be out of distribution

tailcalled22 Oct 2022 20:00 UTC

26 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Using machine learning to predict romantic compatibility: empirical results

JonahS17 Dec 2014 2:54 UTC

37 points

18 comments11 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Remarks on the Convergence in Distribution of Random Neural Networks to Gaussian Processes in the Infinite Width Limit

carboniferous_umbraculum 30 Nov 2023 14:01 UTC

9 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(drive.google.com)

Statistics for objects with shared identities

Q Home3 Oct 2022 9:21 UTC

2 points

7 comments4 min readLW link

Testing Whether LLMs Know What They Don’t Know

Dan Alexander5 Jul 2026 5:30 UTC

1 point

0 comments3 min readLW link

(github.com)

On Contact, Part 1

james.lucassen21 Jan 2025 3:10 UTC

14 points

1 comment11 min readLW link

Correlation Does in Fact Imply Causation

KaseyMarkel16 Feb 2026 21:17 UTC

5 points

15 comments3 min readLW link

“It’s a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so it should be 100%”

egor.timatkov18 Nov 2024 1:14 UTC

171 points

61 comments2 min readLW link 1 review

Frequentist practice incorporates prior information all the time

Maxwell Peterson7 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC

18 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Did anybody calculate the Briers score for per-state election forecasts?

ChristianKl10 Nov 2020 17:51 UTC

11 points

15 comments1 min readLW link

The Identity Symmetry Argument Against SIA

Noah P.12 Nov 2025 23:23 UTC

1 point

0 comments8 min readLW link

Five views of Bayes’ Theorem

Adam Scherlis2 Jul 2022 2:25 UTC

38 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

a visual explanation of Bayesian updating

Jan Christian Refsgaard8 May 2021 19:45 UTC

21 points

7 comments3 min readLW link

(www.badprior.com)

Interpretations of “probability”

So8res9 May 2019 19:16 UTC

68 points

22 comments5 min readLW link

Practical use of the Beta distribution for data analysis

Maxwell Peterson3 Apr 2022 7:34 UTC

9 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Co-Proofs

abramdemski21 May 2018 21:10 UTC

44 points

16 comments1 min readLW link

DSLT 3. Neural Networks are Singular

Liam Carroll20 Jun 2023 8:20 UTC

38 points

5 comments19 min readLW link

Free Stats Textbook: Principles of Uncertainty

badger24 May 2011 19:45 UTC

30 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

A Poisson process paradox

nerfhammer6 Apr 2012 5:20 UTC

29 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

Confounded No Longer: Insights from ‘All of Statistics’

TurnTrout3 May 2018 22:56 UTC

22 points

7 comments10 min readLW link

Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution

CrimsonChin3 Nov 2023 19:42 UTC

8 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

The Generalized Product Rule

aysajan8 Jun 2021 16:39 UTC

34 points

7 comments5 min readLW link

Contra Yudkowsky’s Ideal Bayesian

vae27 Aug 2025 5:43 UTC

53 points

17 comments13 min readLW link

Are dogs bad?

qbolec11 Mar 2021 8:11 UTC

18 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Horrible LHC Inconsistency

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Sep 2008 3:12 UTC

34 points

33 comments1 min readLW link

 How Should We Critique Research? A Decision Perspective

gwern14 Jul 2019 22:51 UTC

46 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Are there any good, easy-to-understand examples of cases where statistical causal network discovery worked well in practice?

tailcalled12 Jul 2023 22:08 UTC

45 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

The Laws of Large Numbers

Dmitry Vaintrob4 Jan 2025 11:54 UTC

38 points

11 comments12 min readLW link

Bayesian Flame

cousin_it26 Jul 2009 16:49 UTC

44 points

163 comments4 min readLW link

A comment on Bayesian vs. frequentist statistical practice

bilibili3 Jul 2025 17:47 UTC

0 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why are probabilities represented as real numbers instead of rational numbers?

Yaakov T27 Oct 2022 11:23 UTC

5 points

9 comments1 min readLW link

Confusing the metric for the meaning: Perhaps correlated attributes are “natural”

NickyP23 Jul 2024 12:43 UTC

33 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

Counterfactual outcome state transition parameters

Anders_H27 Jul 2018 21:13 UTC

37 points

1 comment6 min readLW link

[Question] What is the semantics of assigning probabilities to future events?

Michal1 Apr 2021 0:29 UTC

12 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Complexity Penalties in Statistical Learning

michael_h6 Feb 2019 4:13 UTC

31 points

3 comments6 min readLW link

Does butterfly affect?

pchvykov14 May 2021 4:20 UTC

14 points

21 comments2 min readLW link

The Statistician’s Fallacy

ChrisHallquist9 Dec 2013 4:48 UTC

64 points

69 comments3 min readLW link

Out-of-body reasoning (OOBR)

[deleted]9 Jan 2021 16:10 UTC

5 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Latent Confusion—The Many Meanings Hidden Behind AI’s Favourite Word

robman3 Nov 2025 3:49 UTC

1 point

0 comments7 min readLW link

(latentgeometrylab.robman.fyi)

(Subjective Bayesianism vs. Frequentism) VS. Formalism

Ronny Fernandez26 Nov 2011 5:05 UTC

32 points

107 comments5 min readLW link

The Best Textbooks on Every Subject

lukeprog16 Jan 2011 8:30 UTC

821 points

418 comments7 min readLW link

What Are Probabilities, Anyway?

Wei Dai11 Dec 2009 0:25 UTC

56 points

91 comments2 min readLW link

Human performance, psychometry, and baseball statistics

Craig_Heldreth15 Oct 2010 13:13 UTC

33 points

21 comments6 min readLW link

How long should political (and other) terms be?

ohmurphy14 Oct 2024 21:38 UTC

5 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(ohmurphy.substack.com)

[Question] Where to start with statistics if I want to measure things?

matto20 Apr 2023 22:40 UTC

21 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

The Inspection Paradox is Everywhere

Chris_Leong15 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC

24 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(allendowney.blogspot.com)

A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals

Scott Garrabrant13 Feb 2018 1:45 UTC

63 points

47 comments1 min readLW link

Moving to a World Beyond “p < 0.05”

[deleted]19 Apr 2019 23:09 UTC

23 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

(www.tandfonline.com)

Utility functions and probabilities are entangled

Thomas Kwa26 Jul 2022 5:36 UTC

15 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Futarchy is Parasitic on What It Tries to Govern

Nicolas Rasmont26 Jan 2026 5:05 UTC

11 points

3 comments12 min readLW link

Some thoughts about an estimator by Taleb

paladim4 Jan 2022 5:37 UTC

4 points

1 comment2 min readLW link

Target for Tonight: A Drama In One Act

vernamcipher16 Jan 2022 4:29 UTC

4 points

0 comments14 min readLW link

Statistical suggestions for mech interp research and beyond

Paul B6 Aug 2025 12:45 UTC

66 points

4 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] What is an appropriate sample size when surveying billions of data points?

Blake23 Aug 2024 21:54 UTC

1 point

2 comments1 min readLW link

You can just multiply point estimates (if you only care about EV)

Zach Stein-Perlman26 Mar 2026 15:00 UTC

29 points

9 comments2 min readLW link

Inherited Improbabilities: Transferring the Burden of Proof

komponisto24 Nov 2010 3:40 UTC

46 points

58 comments8 min readLW link

Reasonable Explanations

Alicorn16 Jun 2019 5:29 UTC

79 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Counterintuitive Coin Toss. Part II

PaulTheHuman12 Apr 2026 12:06 UTC

0 points

0 comments13 min readLW link

A very strange probability paradox

Terence Coelho22 Nov 2024 14:01 UTC

92 points

28 comments9 min readLW link

“Absence of Evidence is Not Evidence of Absence” As a Limit

transhumanist_atom_understander1 Oct 2023 8:15 UTC

16 points

1 comment2 min readLW link

DSLT 0. Distilling Singular Learning Theory

Liam Carroll16 Jun 2023 9:50 UTC

98 points

8 comments5 min readLW link

On the Importance of Systematic Biases in Science

gwern20 Jan 2013 21:39 UTC

43 points

14 comments4 min readLW link

Gears vs Behavior

johnswentworth19 Sep 2019 6:50 UTC

130 points

14 comments7 min readLW link 1 review

Priors as Mathematical Objects

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Apr 2007 3:24 UTC

54 points

20 comments4 min readLW link

Adventist Health Study-2 supports pescetarianism more than veganism

Elizabeth17 Jun 2023 20:10 UTC

68 points

11 comments6 min readLW link

(acesounderglass.com)

Miracles and why not to believe them

mruwnik16 Nov 2022 12:07 UTC

4 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Funnel plots: the study that didn’t bark, or, visualizing regression to the null

gwern4 Dec 2011 11:05 UTC

69 points

35 comments2 min readLW link

Reflecting on the transhumanist rebuttal to AI existential risk and critique of our debate methodologies and misuse of statistics

catgirlsruletheworld20 Aug 2024 1:59 UTC

−5 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Noisy Poll Results And Reptilian Muslim Climatologists from Mars

Scott Alexander12 Apr 2013 10:49 UTC

52 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

″… than average” is (almost) meaningless

jwfiredragon21 Jun 2024 4:42 UTC

16 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

Reflection in Probabilistic Logic

Eliezer Yudkowsky24 Mar 2013 16:37 UTC

112 points

168 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Does anyone know what Marvin Minsky is talking about here?

delton13719 Nov 2021 0:56 UTC

1 point

6 comments3 min readLW link

Averages and sample sizes

mruwnik2 Nov 2023 9:52 UTC

15 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

Quantopian contest, but for food intake and weight

Lucent8 Nov 2023 5:41 UTC

51 points

11 comments3 min readLW link

Laplace Approximation

johnswentworth18 Jul 2019 15:23 UTC

31 points

4 comments3 min readLW link

Statistics for vague concepts and “Colors” of places

Q Home19 Aug 2022 10:33 UTC

−1 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

Necessity Protects Chain of Thought Monitoring by Prevention, Not Disclosure

Ankit Sanjyal23 Jul 2026 2:51 UTC

7 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

Useful Statistical Biases

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Apr 2007 4:51 UTC

19 points

4 comments3 min readLW link

What’s wrong with this picture?

CronoDAS28 Jan 2016 13:30 UTC

29 points

81 comments1 min readLW link

No comments.

Prob­a­bil­ity & Statistics

Probability & Statistics