Prob­a­bil­ity & Statistics

Simp­son’s Paradox

Risk and un­cer­tainty: A false di­chotomy?

Can we always as­sign, and make sense of, sub­jec­tive prob­a­bil­ities?

An Illus­trated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

Cor­re­spon­dence vi­su­al­iza­tions for differ­ent in­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

How long does it take to be­come Gaus­sian?

The Tails Com­ing Apart As Me­taphor For Life

How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

Mes­sage Length

The Uni­vari­ate Fallacy

An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Bayes’s Theorem

Why the tails come apart

Trust in Bayes

Book re­view: Pearl’s Book of Why

Book Re­view—Prob­a­bil­ity and Fi­nance: It’s Only a Game!

Book Re­view: Fooled by Randomness

Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Cer­tain That 53 Is Prime

Con­fi­dence lev­els in­side and out­side an argument

Beau­tiful Probability

The Se­cond Law of Ther­mo­dy­nam­ics, and Eng­ines of Cognition

What is Bayesi­anism?

Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

Rad­i­cal Probabilism

The prob­lem/​solu­tion ma­trix: Calcu­lat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of AI safety “on the back of an en­velope”

Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part 1: Ba­sic Ter­minol­ogy and the As­sump­tions of Causal Inference

Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part II: Graph­i­cal Models

Prob­a­bil­ity Space & Au­mann Agreement

“A Defi­ni­tion of Sub­jec­tive Prob­a­bil­ity” by An­scombe and Aumann

Au­mann’s Agree­ment Revisited

The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

Prob­a­bil­ity, knowl­edge, and meta-probability

Case study: abuse of fre­quen­tist statistics

Bayesi­anism for hu­mans: “prob­a­ble enough”

If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

Beyond Bayesi­ans and Frequentists

Rugby & Re­gres­sion Towards the Mean

[Question] What are prin­ci­pled ways for pe­nal­is­ing com­plex­ity in prac­tice?

Quadratic mod­els and (un)falsified data

La­tent Vari­ables and Model Mis-Specification

Mul­ti­vari­ate es­ti­ma­tion & the Squig­gly language

Refer­ence Classes

Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

“Statis­ti­cal Bias”

“In­duc­tive Bias”

Very Short In­tro­duc­tion to Bayesian Model Com­par­i­son

From Laplace to BIC

Bayesian Model Test­ing Comparisons

Cross-Val­i­da­tion vs Bayesian Model Comparison

“Pre­dic­tion” and “ex­pla­na­tion” are not causation

What is a prob­a­bil­ity?

The cen­tral limit the­o­rem in terms of convolutions

Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test: prizes, re­sults, and analysis

The Lot­tery Paradox

Calcu­lat­ing Kelly

Fermi Estimates

Born as the sev­enth month dies …

Shut Up And Guess

If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

“No ev­i­dence” as a Valley of Bad Rationality

Why We Can’t Take Ex­pected Value Es­ti­mates Liter­ally (Even When They’re Un­bi­ased)

Co-Proofs

A Proper Scor­ing Rule for Con­fi­dence Intervals

Me­taMed: Ev­i­dence-Based Healthcare

Even if you have a nail, not all ham­mers are the same

Rea­son­able Explanations

Tech­niques for prob­a­bil­ity estimates

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

Prob­a­bil­ity space has 2 metrics

Fre­quen­tist Statis­tics are Fre­quently Subjective

Ex­ces­sive EDA Effortposting

Reflec­tion in Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic

His­tory of LessWrong: Some Data Graphics

A Mo­tor­cy­cle (and Cal­ibra­tion?) Accident

Against NHST

Anti-akra­sia tool: like stickK.com for data nerds

New Im­proved Lottery

Gears vs Behavior

In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

What would con­vince you you’d won the lot­tery?

Cir­cu­lar Altruism

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

A Fer­vent Defense of Fre­quen­tist Statistics

Fun­nel plots: the study that didn’t bark, or, vi­su­al­iz­ing re­gres­sion to the null

Lot­ter­ies: A Waste of Hope

Con­founded No Longer: In­sights from ‘All of Statis­tics’

Effect het­ero­gene­ity and ex­ter­nal val­idity in medicine

Fre­quen­tist Magic vs. Bayesian Magic

Noisy Poll Re­sults And Rep­tilian Mus­lim Cli­ma­tol­o­gists from Mars

Diseased dis­ci­plines: the strange case of the in­verted chart

Multiplicitous

Wolf’s Dice II: What Asym­me­try?

Wolf’s Dice

Chart­ing Deaths: Real­ity vs Reported

The Pyra­mid And The Garden

The Statis­ti­cian’s Fallacy

Should cor­re­la­tion co­effi­cients be ex­pressed as an­gles?

Us­ing de­grees of free­dom to change the past for fun and profit

In­stinc­tive Fre­quen­tists, the Out­side View, and de-Biasing

Hu­man perfor­mance, psy­chom­e­try, and base­ball statistics

No non­sense ver­sion of the “racial al­gorithm bias”

Bayes’ The­o­rem in three pictures

Crypto quant trad­ing: Intro

Crypto quant trad­ing: Naive Bayes

 How Should We Cri­tique Re­search? A De­ci­sion Perspective

Sub­text is not in­var­i­ant un­der lin­ear transformations

What Are Prob­a­bil­ities, Any­way?

Prob­a­bil­ity in­ter­pre­ta­tions: Examples

Prob­a­bil­ity is Sub­jec­tively Objective

Pri­ors as Math­e­mat­i­cal Objects

Hor­rible LHC Inconsistency

Imag­ine a World Where Govern­ments Treated COVID-19 Properly

Bayesian Flame

[Link] “Fewer than X% of Amer­i­cans know Y”

Coun­ter­fac­tual out­come state tran­si­tion parameters

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Com­plex­ity Penalties in Statis­ti­cal Learning

Rais­ing the fore­cast­ing wa­ter­line (part 1)

Co­var­i­ance in your sam­ple vs co­var­i­ance in the gen­eral population

Mov­ing to a World Beyond “p < 0.05”

The dan­gers of zero and one

How sub­jec­tive is at­trac­tive­ness?

Vi­su­al­iz­ing the power of mul­ti­ple step se­lec­tion pro­cesses in JS: Gal­ton’s bean machine

(Sub­jec­tive Bayesi­anism vs. Fre­quen­tism) VS. For­mal­ism

Laplace Approximation

The In­spec­tion Para­dox is Everywhere

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

In­her­ited Im­prob­a­bil­ities: Trans­fer­ring the Bur­den of Proof

On the Im­por­tance of Sys­tem­atic Bi­ases in Science

Monty Hall in the Wild

Us­ing ma­chine learn­ing to pre­dict ro­man­tic com­pat­i­bil­ity: em­piri­cal results

Too good to be true

[Draft] Poker With Lennier

How to come up with ver­bal probabilities

Use­ful Statis­ti­cal Biases

What’s wrong with this pic­ture?

Kling, Prob­a­bil­ity, and Economics

Sam­ple means, how do they work?

Fre­quen­tist prac­tice in­cor­po­rates prior in­for­ma­tion all the time

[Question] Does there ex­ist a de­tailed Bayesian COVID tracker?

How Not to be Stupid: Adorable Maybes

Log-odds (or log­its)

[Question] Did any­body calcu­late the Bri­ers score for per-state elec­tion fore­casts?

The Fal­lacy of Large Numbers

Free Stats Text­book: Prin­ci­ples of Uncertainty

Prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tions and writ­ing style

in­dex­i­cal un­cer­tainty and the Ax­iom of Independence

Con­volu­tion as smoothing

Wel­come to LessWrong!

Causal­ity does not im­ply correlation

An el­e­gant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

The Pre­dic­tion Hierarchy

How Less­wrong helped me make $25K: A ra­tio­nal pric­ing strategy

De­bunked And Well-Refuted

Out-of-body rea­son­ing (OOBR)

A Pois­son pro­cess paradox

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

Prob­a­bil­ity vs Likelihood

The av­er­age North Korean mathematician