Tag

# How long does it take to be­come Gaus­sian?

8 Dec 2020 7:23 UTC
139 points

12 Jan 2011 23:01 UTC
100 points

# Can we always as­sign, and make sense of, sub­jec­tive prob­a­bil­ities?

17 Jan 2020 3:05 UTC
11 points

# Risk and un­cer­tainty: A false di­chotomy?

18 Jan 2020 3:09 UTC
6 points

# How much do you be­lieve your re­sults?

6 May 2023 20:31 UTC
459 points
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

# Ap­prox­i­mately Bayesian Rea­son­ing: Knigh­tian Uncer­tainty, Good­hart, and the Look-Else­where Effect

26 Jan 2024 3:58 UTC
13 points

# Laplace’s rule of succession

23 Nov 2021 15:48 UTC
50 points

# An Illus­trated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

8 Jun 2020 1:54 UTC
19 points
(mlu.red)

# Cor­re­spon­dence vi­su­al­iza­tions for differ­ent in­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

10 May 2019 17:10 UTC
42 points

# Re­port like­li­hood ratios

23 Apr 2022 17:10 UTC
80 points

# Mes­sage Length

20 Oct 2020 5:52 UTC
134 points

# Fermi Estimates

11 Apr 2013 17:52 UTC
114 points

# How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

12 Mar 2019 10:14 UTC
55 points

# The Tails Com­ing Apart As Me­taphor For Life

25 Sep 2018 19:10 UTC
151 points
(slatestarcodex.com)

# [Question] What is a prob­a­bil­is­tic phys­i­cal the­ory?

25 Dec 2021 16:30 UTC
15 points

22 Nov 2021 10:39 UTC
79 points

# The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC
46 points

# On martingales

19 Sep 2023 11:39 UTC
8 points

# A time-in­var­i­ant ver­sion of Laplace’s rule

15 Jul 2022 19:28 UTC
72 points
(epochai.org)

# How can one ra­tio­nally have very high or very low prob­a­bil­ities of ex­tinc­tion in a pre-paradig­matic field?

30 Apr 2023 21:53 UTC
39 points

# E.T. Jaynes Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The logic of Science I

27 Dec 2023 23:47 UTC
60 points

# [Question] Why cor­re­la­tion, though?

6 Mar 2024 16:53 UTC
22 points

# [Question] How Often Does ¬Cor­re­la­tion ⇏ ¬Cau­sa­tion?

2 Apr 2024 17:58 UTC
17 points

# Gen­er­al­ized Stat Mech: The Boltz­mann Approach

12 Apr 2024 17:47 UTC
59 points

# “How the Gaza Health Ministry Fakes Ca­su­alty Num­bers”

12 Apr 2024 5:57 UTC
−12 points
(www.tabletmag.com)

# Sub­scripts for Probabilities

13 Apr 2023 18:32 UTC
66 points

# The Uni­vari­ate Fallacy

15 Jun 2019 21:43 UTC
32 points

# An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Bayes’s Theorem

1 Jan 2003 20:00 UTC
63 points

# Why the tails come apart

1 Aug 2014 22:41 UTC
316 points

# Trust in Bayes

29 Jan 2008 23:12 UTC
39 points

# Book re­view: Pearl’s Book of Why

7 Jul 2018 17:30 UTC
69 points
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

# Book Re­view—Prob­a­bil­ity and Fi­nance: It’s Only a Game!

23 Jan 2018 18:52 UTC
12 points

# Neu­ral un­cer­tainty es­ti­ma­tion re­view ar­ti­cle (for al­ign­ment)

5 Dec 2023 8:01 UTC
69 points

# Book Re­view: Fooled by Randomness

13 Jul 2020 21:02 UTC
33 points

# Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Cer­tain That 53 Is Prime

7 Nov 2013 7:45 UTC
95 points

# Con­fi­dence lev­els in­side and out­side an argument

16 Dec 2010 3:06 UTC
232 points

# Beau­tiful Probability

14 Jan 2008 7:19 UTC
102 points

# The Se­cond Law of Ther­mo­dy­nam­ics, and Eng­ines of Cognition

27 Feb 2008 0:48 UTC
167 points

# What is Bayesi­anism?

26 Feb 2010 7:43 UTC
115 points

# Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

10 Oct 2010 14:54 UTC
162 points

18 Aug 2020 21:14 UTC
176 points

# Statis­ti­cal mod­els & the ir­rele­vance of rare exceptions

7 May 2023 15:59 UTC
37 points

# Bayesian Net­works Aren’t Ne­c­es­sar­ily Causal

14 May 2023 1:42 UTC
88 points

# Should cor­re­la­tion co­effi­cients be ex­pressed as an­gles?

28 Nov 2012 0:05 UTC
101 points

# The prob­lem/​solu­tion ma­trix: Calcu­lat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of AI safety “on the back of an en­velope”

20 Oct 2019 8:03 UTC
22 points

# Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part 1: Ba­sic Ter­minol­ogy and the As­sump­tions of Causal Inference

30 Jul 2014 20:56 UTC
46 points

# Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part II: Graph­i­cal Models

4 Aug 2014 23:10 UTC
15 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity Space & Au­mann Agreement

10 Dec 2009 21:57 UTC
52 points

# “A Defi­ni­tion of Sub­jec­tive Prob­a­bil­ity” by An­scombe and Aumann

24 Jan 2014 20:30 UTC
14 points

# Au­mann’s Agree­ment Revisited

27 Aug 2018 6:21 UTC
4 points

# The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

21 May 2011 2:41 UTC
63 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity, knowl­edge, and meta-probability

17 Sep 2013 0:02 UTC
58 points

# Case study: abuse of fre­quen­tist statistics

21 Feb 2010 6:35 UTC
45 points

# Bayesi­anism for hu­mans: “prob­a­ble enough”

2 Sep 2014 21:44 UTC
52 points

# If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

3 Sep 2017 20:56 UTC
72 points

# Beyond Bayesi­ans and Frequentists

31 Oct 2012 7:03 UTC
55 points

# Rugby & Re­gres­sion Towards the Mean

30 Oct 2019 16:36 UTC
15 points

# [Question] What are prin­ci­pled ways for pe­nal­is­ing com­plex­ity in prac­tice?

27 Jun 2019 7:28 UTC
36 points

# Quadratic mod­els and (un)falsified data

8 Mar 2020 23:34 UTC
32 points

# Are Bayesian meth­ods guaran­teed to overfit?

17 Jun 2023 12:52 UTC
52 points
(www.yulingyao.com)

# When is cor­re­la­tion tran­si­tive?

23 Jun 2023 16:09 UTC
83 points

# La­tent Vari­ables and Model Mis-Specification

7 Nov 2018 14:48 UTC
24 points

# Mul­ti­vari­ate es­ti­ma­tion & the Squig­gly language

5 Sep 2020 4:35 UTC
44 points

# Refer­ence Classes

7 Sep 2020 12:52 UTC
10 points

# Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

6 Oct 2020 17:34 UTC
23 points

# “Statis­ti­cal Bias”

30 Mar 2007 18:55 UTC
22 points

# “In­duc­tive Bias”

8 Apr 2007 19:52 UTC
39 points

# Very Short In­tro­duc­tion to Bayesian Model Com­par­i­son

16 Jul 2019 19:48 UTC
32 points

# From Laplace to BIC

19 Jul 2019 16:52 UTC
19 points

# Bayesian Model Test­ing Comparisons

20 Jul 2019 16:40 UTC
13 points

# Cross-Val­i­da­tion vs Bayesian Model Comparison

21 Jul 2019 18:14 UTC
26 points

# “Pre­dic­tion” and “ex­pla­na­tion” are not causation

24 Oct 2020 18:55 UTC
12 points

# In­for­ma­tion Charts

13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
29 points

# Pre­ci­sion of Sets of Forecasts

19 Sep 2023 18:19 UTC
20 points

# Fo­rum Karma: view stats and find highly-rated com­ments for any LW user

1 Jul 2023 15:36 UTC
58 points
(forumkarma.com)

# The cen­tral limit the­o­rem in terms of convolutions

21 Nov 2020 4:09 UTC
39 points

# On Fre­quen­tism and Bayesian Dogma

15 Oct 2023 22:23 UTC
59 points

# Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test: prizes, re­sults, and analysis

15 Jan 2021 6:24 UTC
157 points
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

# Calcu­lat­ing Kelly

22 Feb 2021 17:32 UTC
35 points

# The av­er­age North Korean mathematician

7 Mar 2021 17:28 UTC
65 points
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

# Two Dark Side Statis­tics Papers

2 Jan 2014 5:51 UTC
33 points

# Map:Ter­ri­tory::Uncer­tainty::Ran­dom­ness – but that doesn’t mat­ter, value of in­for­ma­tion does.

22 Jan 2016 19:12 UTC
8 points

# In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Probability

8 Apr 2021 17:48 UTC
7 points

# In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Statis­ti­cal Inference

8 Apr 2021 17:49 UTC
8 points

# Hy­poth­e­sis Space Entropy

14 May 2021 7:21 UTC
17 points

# Book Re­view of 5 Ap­plied Bayesian Statis­tics Books

21 May 2021 10:23 UTC
66 points

# Gen­er­al­ised mod­els: im­perfect mor­phisms and in­for­ma­tional entropy

9 Jul 2021 17:35 UTC
9 points

# The Effec­tive­ness Of Masks is Limited

21 Sep 2021 17:03 UTC
24 points

# Aver­age prob­a­bil­ities, not log odds

12 Nov 2021 21:39 UTC
27 points

# Use Nor­mal Predictions

9 Jan 2022 15:01 UTC
145 points

# Con­fi­dence in­ter­vals seem to be rarely use­ful, in and of themselves

5 Feb 2022 11:23 UTC
1 point

# Most likely is not likely

12 Feb 2022 17:27 UTC
17 points

# Ep­silon is not a prob­a­bil­ity, it’s a cop-out

15 Feb 2022 2:48 UTC
23 points

# 12 in­ter­est­ing things I learned study­ing the dis­cov­ery of na­ture’s laws

19 Feb 2022 23:39 UTC
262 points

# [Question] Thoughts on the SPIES Fore­cast­ing Method?

19 Mar 2022 15:22 UTC
19 points

# Search­ing for outliers

21 Mar 2022 2:40 UTC
169 points
(www.benkuhn.net)

# The Case for Fre­quen­tism: Why Bayesian Prob­a­bil­ity is Fun­da­men­tally Un­sound and What Science Does Instead

3 Apr 2022 20:52 UTC
22 points

# scipy.op­ti­mize.curve_fit Is Awesome

7 May 2022 10:57 UTC
20 points

# A But­terfly’s View of Probability

15 Jun 2022 2:14 UTC
29 points

# Six (and a half) in­tu­itions for KL divergence

12 Oct 2022 21:07 UTC
154 points
(www.perfectlynormal.co.uk)

# Why square er­rors?

26 Nov 2022 13:40 UTC
41 points

# Log­i­cal in­duc­tion for soft­ware engineers

3 Dec 2022 19:55 UTC
160 points

# [Question] What does “prob­a­bil­ity” re­ally mean?

28 Dec 2022 3:20 UTC
5 points

# 0 and 1 aren’t probabilities

1 Jan 2023 0:09 UTC
2 points
(en.wikipedia.org)

# What makes a prob­a­bil­ity ques­tion “well-defined”? (Part II: Ber­trand’s Para­dox)

3 Jan 2023 22:39 UTC
7 points
(naivebayes.substack.com)

# Vi­su­al­i­sa­tion of Prob­a­bil­ity Mass

25 Jan 2023 15:09 UTC
7 points

# Stan­zas On Power Calculation

5 Feb 2023 19:15 UTC
9 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The Logic of Science, Jaynes

16 Feb 2023 21:57 UTC
29 points

# Book Re­view: The End of Average

14 Oct 2021 1:49 UTC
17 points

# The Best Text­books on Every Subject

16 Jan 2011 8:30 UTC
702 points

# Poker with Lennier

15 Nov 2011 22:21 UTC
26 points

# The high­est-prob­a­bil­ity out­come can be out of distribution

22 Oct 2022 20:00 UTC
13 points

# [Question] Does any­one know what Marvin Min­sky is talk­ing about here?

19 Nov 2021 0:56 UTC
1 point

# Prob­a­bil­ity is Sub­jec­tively Objective

14 Jul 2008 9:16 UTC
41 points

# Pri­ors as Math­e­mat­i­cal Objects

12 Apr 2007 3:24 UTC
51 points

# Hor­rible LHC Inconsistency

22 Sep 2008 3:12 UTC
34 points

# Imag­ine a World Where Govern­ments Treated COVID-19 Properly

12 Aug 2020 22:52 UTC
−2 points

# De­bunked And Well-Refuted

13 Dec 2014 12:08 UTC
44 points

# Find­ing the Cen­tral Limit The­o­rem in Bayes’ rule

27 Nov 2021 5:48 UTC
23 points

# Com­mon Prob­a­bil­ity Distributions

2 Dec 2021 1:50 UTC
44 points
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

# Bayesian Flame

26 Jul 2009 16:49 UTC
41 points

# [Link] “Fewer than X% of Amer­i­cans know Y”

10 Oct 2012 16:59 UTC
70 points

# Coun­ter­fac­tual out­come state tran­si­tion parameters

27 Jul 2018 21:13 UTC
37 points

# When (Not) To Use Probabilities

23 Jul 2008 10:58 UTC
71 points

# Com­plex­ity Penalties in Statis­ti­cal Learning

6 Feb 2019 4:13 UTC
31 points

# Re­quire­ments for a STEM-ca­pa­ble AGI Value Learner (my Case for Less Doom)

25 May 2023 9:26 UTC
32 points

# Rais­ing the fore­cast­ing wa­ter­line (part 1)

9 Oct 2012 15:49 UTC
51 points

# DSLT 2. Why Neu­ral Net­works obey Oc­cam’s Razor

18 Jun 2023 0:23 UTC
20 points

# DSLT 4. Phase Tran­si­tions in Neu­ral Networks

24 Jun 2023 17:22 UTC
30 points

# DSLT 3. Neu­ral Net­works are Singular

20 Jun 2023 8:20 UTC
24 points

# Co­var­i­ance in your sam­ple vs co­var­i­ance in the gen­eral population

16 May 2012 0:17 UTC
41 points

# Ad­ven­tist Health Study-2 sup­ports pesc­etar­i­anism more than veganism

17 Jun 2023 20:10 UTC
67 points
(acesounderglass.com)

# Mov­ing to a World Beyond “p < 0.05”

19 Apr 2019 23:09 UTC
23 points
(www.tandfonline.com)

# DSLT 0. Distill­ing Sin­gu­lar Learn­ing Theory

16 Jun 2023 9:50 UTC
74 points

# A Gen­er­al­iza­tion of ROC AUC for Bi­nary Classifiers

4 Dec 2021 21:47 UTC
10 points

# Anti-cor­re­lated causation

6 Dec 2021 4:36 UTC
18 points

# The dan­gers of zero and one

21 Nov 2013 12:21 UTC
48 points

# How sub­jec­tive is at­trac­tive­ness?

13 Jan 2015 0:04 UTC
36 points

# Vi­su­al­iz­ing the power of mul­ti­ple step se­lec­tion pro­cesses in JS: Gal­ton’s bean machine

12 Jan 2019 17:58 UTC
27 points
(www.gwern.net)

# (Sub­jec­tive Bayesi­anism vs. Fre­quen­tism) VS. For­mal­ism

26 Nov 2011 5:05 UTC
32 points

# Laplace Approximation

18 Jul 2019 15:23 UTC
29 points

# VC The­ory Overview

2 Jul 2023 22:45 UTC
10 points

# The In­spec­tion Para­dox is Everywhere

15 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC
24 points
(allendowney.blogspot.com)

# In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

17 Aug 2019 21:47 UTC
29 points

# In­her­ited Im­prob­a­bil­ities: Trans­fer­ring the Bur­den of Proof

24 Nov 2010 3:40 UTC
46 points

# On the Im­por­tance of Sys­tem­atic Bi­ases in Science

20 Jan 2013 21:39 UTC
43 points

# Monty Hall in the Wild

6 Jun 2018 18:03 UTC
24 points

# Us­ing ma­chine learn­ing to pre­dict ro­man­tic com­pat­i­bil­ity: em­piri­cal results

17 Dec 2014 2:54 UTC
37 points

# Out-of-body rea­son­ing (OOBR)

9 Jan 2021 16:10 UTC
5 points

# [Question] Why are prob­a­bil­ities rep­re­sented as real num­bers in­stead of ra­tio­nal num­bers?

27 Oct 2022 11:23 UTC
5 points

# Some thoughts about an es­ti­ma­tor by Taleb

4 Jan 2022 5:37 UTC
4 points

# [Question] Are there any good, easy-to-un­der­stand ex­am­ples of cases where statis­ti­cal causal net­work dis­cov­ery worked well in prac­tice?

12 Jul 2023 22:08 UTC
42 points

# Tar­get for Tonight: A Drama In One Act

16 Jan 2022 4:29 UTC
4 points

# Too good to be true

11 Jul 2014 20:16 UTC
35 points

# [Draft] Poker With Lennier

10 Nov 2011 17:14 UTC
29 points

# How to come up with ver­bal probabilities

29 Apr 2009 8:35 UTC
27 points

12 Aug 2023 7:34 UTC
37 points

# Ret­ro­spec­tive forecasting

30 Jan 2022 16:38 UTC
22 points

# Mir­a­cles and why not to be­lieve them

16 Nov 2022 12:07 UTC
4 points

# [Question] Where to start with statis­tics if I want to mea­sure things?

20 Apr 2023 22:40 UTC
21 points

# Re­view: Bayesian Statis­tics the Fun Way by Will Kurt

19 Nov 2022 18:52 UTC
4 points

# A com­pila­tion of mi­suses of statistics

14 Feb 2022 21:53 UTC
4 points
(youneskamel.substack.com)

# The AI Con­trol Prob­lem in a wider in­tel­lec­tual context

13 Jan 2023 0:28 UTC
11 points

# Why Bet Kelly?

29 Nov 2022 18:47 UTC
16 points

# Use­ful Statis­ti­cal Biases

1 Apr 2007 4:51 UTC
19 points

# “Gen­langs” and Zipf’s Law: Do lan­guages gen­er­ated by ChatGPT statis­ti­cally look hu­man?

31 Jan 2024 18:30 UTC
2 points
(arxiv.org)

# What’s wrong with this pic­ture?

28 Jan 2016 13:30 UTC
29 points

# Kling, Prob­a­bil­ity, and Economics

30 Mar 2009 5:15 UTC
1 point

# Sam­ple means, how do they work?

20 Nov 2016 21:04 UTC
34 points

# Fre­quen­tist prac­tice in­cor­po­rates prior in­for­ma­tion all the time

7 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC
18 points

# From game the­ory to play­ers theory

15 Sep 2023 6:23 UTC
−4 points

# [Question] Does there ex­ist a de­tailed Bayesian COVID tracker?

12 Nov 2020 5:06 UTC
8 points

# How Not to be Stupid: Adorable Maybes

29 Apr 2009 19:15 UTC
1 point

# The me­dian and mode use less in­for­ma­tion than the mean does

1 Apr 2022 21:25 UTC
10 points

# Log-odds (or log­its)

28 Nov 2011 1:11 UTC
31 points

# [Question] Did any­body calcu­late the Bri­ers score for per-state elec­tion fore­casts?

10 Nov 2020 17:51 UTC
11 points

# The Fal­lacy of Large Numbers

12 Aug 2012 18:39 UTC
30 points

# Free Stats Text­book: Prin­ci­ples of Uncertainty

24 May 2011 19:45 UTC
29 points

# Prac­ti­cal use of the Beta dis­tri­bu­tion for data analysis

3 Apr 2022 7:34 UTC
9 points

# [Question] Cur­rent State of Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic

7 Oct 2023 5:06 UTC
3 points

# Un­der­speci­fied Prob­a­bil­ities: A Thought Ex­per­i­ment

4 Oct 2023 22:25 UTC
8 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tions and writ­ing style

4 Jun 2009 6:17 UTC
6 points

# in­dex­i­cal un­cer­tainty and the Ax­iom of Independence

7 Jun 2009 9:18 UTC
26 points

# A hun­dredth of a bit of ex­tra entropy

24 Dec 2022 21:12 UTC
83 points

# Con­volu­tion as smoothing

25 Nov 2020 6:00 UTC
28 points

# Causal­ity does not im­ply correlation

8 Jul 2009 0:52 UTC
18 points

# An el­e­gant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

7 Dec 2020 22:43 UTC
33 points
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

# The Pre­dic­tion Hierarchy

19 Jan 2010 3:36 UTC
28 points

# Don’t be afraid of the thou­sand-year-old vampire

18 Apr 2022 1:22 UTC
37 points

# [Question] In­finite tower of meta-probability

19 Oct 2023 16:44 UTC
6 points

# Eliezer’s ex­am­ple on Bayesian statis­tics is wr… oops!

17 Oct 2023 18:38 UTC
70 points

# How Less­wrong helped me make \$25K: A ra­tio­nal pric­ing strategy

21 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC
50 points

# Math-to-English Cheat Sheet

8 Apr 2024 9:19 UTC
52 points

# Pre­dict­ing AGI by the Tur­ing Test

22 Jan 2024 4:22 UTC
21 points
(yuxi-liu-wired.github.io)

# Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

22 Mar 2023 17:40 UTC
11 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity vs Likelihood

10 Nov 2020 21:28 UTC
110 points

# De­con­fus­ing Lan­dauer’s Principle

27 May 2022 17:58 UTC
59 points

11 Mar 2021 8:11 UTC
18 points

# A con­cep­tual pre­cur­sor to to­day’s lan­guage ma­chines [Shan­non]

15 Nov 2023 13:50 UTC
24 points

# [Question] What is the se­man­tics of as­sign­ing prob­a­bil­ities to fu­ture events?

1 Apr 2021 0:29 UTC
12 points

# [Linkpost] Re­marks on the Con­ver­gence in Distri­bu­tion of Ran­dom Neu­ral Net­works to Gaus­sian Pro­cesses in the In­finite Width Limit

30 Nov 2023 14:01 UTC
9 points

# Born as the sev­enth month dies …

10 Jul 2020 15:07 UTC
6 points

# The Solu­tion to Sleep­ing Beauty

4 Mar 2024 6:46 UTC
12 points

# The Ja­panese Quiz: a Thought Ex­per­i­ment of Statis­ti­cal Epistemology

8 Apr 2021 17:37 UTC
11 points

# [Question] What is the most prob­a­ble AI?

20 Jun 2022 23:26 UTC
−2 points

# Five views of Bayes’ Theorem

2 Jul 2022 2:25 UTC
38 points

# a vi­sual ex­pla­na­tion of Bayesian updating

8 May 2021 19:45 UTC
20 points

# Does but­terfly af­fect?

14 May 2021 4:20 UTC
14 points

# [Question] Are (Mo­tor)sports like F1 a good thing to cal­ibrate es­ti­mates against?

24 Mar 2024 9:07 UTC
4 points

# Utility func­tions and prob­a­bil­ities are entangled

26 Jul 2022 5:36 UTC
15 points

# The Gen­er­al­ized Product Rule

8 Jun 2021 16:39 UTC
34 points

# [Question] Is it true that most stud­ies in Kah­ne­man’s ‘Think­ing fast and slow’ are not repli­ca­ble and the book is largely not sup­ported by ev­i­dence?

30 Jun 2021 7:14 UTC
17 points

# Shut Up And Guess

21 Jul 2009 4:04 UTC
124 points

# If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC
136 points

# “No ev­i­dence” as a Valley of Bad Rationality

28 Mar 2020 23:45 UTC
106 points

# Why We Can’t Take Ex­pected Value Es­ti­mates Liter­ally (Even When They’re Un­bi­ased)

18 Aug 2011 23:34 UTC
123 points

# Co-Proofs

21 May 2018 21:10 UTC
40 points

# A Proper Scor­ing Rule for Con­fi­dence Intervals

13 Feb 2018 1:45 UTC
63 points

# Me­taMed: Ev­i­dence-Based Healthcare

5 Mar 2013 13:16 UTC
112 points

# Even if you have a nail, not all ham­mers are the same

29 Mar 2010 18:09 UTC
150 points

# Rea­son­able Explanations

16 Jun 2019 5:29 UTC
78 points

# Tech­niques for prob­a­bil­ity estimates

4 Jan 2011 23:38 UTC
104 points

# Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

3 May 2012 1:35 UTC
136 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity space has 2 metrics

10 Feb 2019 0:28 UTC
88 points

# Fre­quen­tist Statis­tics are Fre­quently Subjective

4 Dec 2009 20:22 UTC
86 points

# Ex­ces­sive EDA Effortposting

3 Jun 2018 19:17 UTC
44 points

# Reflec­tion in Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic

24 Mar 2013 16:37 UTC
112 points

# His­tory of LessWrong: Some Data Graphics

16 Nov 2018 7:07 UTC
65 points

# A Mo­tor­cy­cle (and Cal­ibra­tion?) Accident

18 Mar 2018 22:21 UTC
25 points

# Against NHST

21 Dec 2012 4:45 UTC
93 points

# Anti-akra­sia tool: like stickK.com for data nerds

10 Oct 2011 2:09 UTC
80 points

# New Im­proved Lottery

13 Apr 2007 23:42 UTC
101 points

# Gears vs Behavior

19 Sep 2019 6:50 UTC
102 points

# In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

9 May 2019 19:16 UTC
68 points

# What would con­vince you you’d won the lot­tery?

10 Oct 2017 13:45 UTC
28 points

# Cir­cu­lar Altruism

22 Jan 2008 18:00 UTC
83 points

# 0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

10 Jan 2008 6:58 UTC
96 points

# A Fer­vent Defense of Fre­quen­tist Statistics

18 Feb 2014 20:08 UTC
75 points

# Fun­nel plots: the study that didn’t bark, or, vi­su­al­iz­ing re­gres­sion to the null

4 Dec 2011 11:05 UTC
69 points

# Lot­ter­ies: A Waste of Hope

13 Apr 2007 5:36 UTC
84 points

# Con­founded No Longer: In­sights from ‘All of Statis­tics’

3 May 2018 22:56 UTC
21 points

# Effect het­ero­gene­ity and ex­ter­nal val­idity in medicine

25 Oct 2019 20:53 UTC
49 points

# Fre­quen­tist Magic vs. Bayesian Magic

8 Apr 2010 20:34 UTC
58 points

# Noisy Poll Re­sults And Rep­tilian Mus­lim Cli­ma­tol­o­gists from Mars

12 Apr 2013 10:49 UTC
40 points

# Aver­ag­ing sam­ples from a pop­u­la­tion with log-nor­mal distribution

3 Nov 2023 19:42 UTC
8 points

# Diseased dis­ci­plines: the strange case of the in­verted chart

7 Feb 2012 9:45 UTC
62 points

# Multiplicitous

18 Dec 2016 16:39 UTC
9 points
(putanumonit.com)

# Wolf’s Dice II: What Asym­me­try?

17 Jul 2019 15:22 UTC
34 points

# Wolf’s Dice

16 Jul 2019 19:50 UTC
35 points

# Statis­tics for vague con­cepts and “Colors” of places

19 Aug 2022 10:33 UTC
−1 points

# Chart­ing Deaths: Real­ity vs Reported

30 Mar 2018 0:50 UTC
13 points
(owenshen24.github.io)

# The Pyra­mid And The Garden

5 Nov 2016 6:03 UTC
49 points

# [Question] Jay­ne­sian in­ter­pre­ta­tion—How does “es­ti­mat­ing prob­a­bil­ities” make sense?

21 Jul 2021 21:36 UTC
4 points

# The Statis­ti­cian’s Fallacy

9 Dec 2013 4:48 UTC
63 points

# [Question] Do Bayesi­ans like Bayesian model Aver­ag­ing?

2 Aug 2021 12:24 UTC
4 points

# DSLT 1. The RLCT Mea­sures the Effec­tive Di­men­sion of Neu­ral Networks

16 Jun 2023 9:50 UTC
45 points

# Us­ing de­grees of free­dom to change the past for fun and profit

7 Mar 2012 2:51 UTC
64 points

# In­stinc­tive Fre­quen­tists, the Out­side View, and de-Biasing

20 Sep 2013 20:19 UTC
63 points

# Hu­man perfor­mance, psy­chom­e­try, and base­ball statistics

15 Oct 2010 13:13 UTC
33 points

# No non­sense ver­sion of the “racial al­gorithm bias”

13 Jul 2019 15:39 UTC
115 points

# Quan­topian con­test, but for food in­take and weight

8 Nov 2023 5:41 UTC
40 points

6 Apr 2012 5:20 UTC
29 points

# Bayes’ The­o­rem in three pictures

21 Jul 2019 7:01 UTC
30 points

# [Question] Halpern’s pa­per—A re­fu­ta­tion of Cox’s the­o­rem?

11 Aug 2021 9:25 UTC
13 points

17 Apr 2019 20:52 UTC
62 points

# Crypto quant trad­ing: Naive Bayes

7 May 2019 19:29 UTC
33 points

#  How Should We Cri­tique Re­search? A De­ci­sion Perspective

14 Jul 2019 22:51 UTC
46 points
(www.gwern.net)

# [Question] Jaynes-Cox Prob­a­bil­ity: Are plau­si­bil­ities ob­jec­tive?

12 Aug 2021 14:23 UTC
9 points

# [Question] Has Van Horn fixed Cox’s the­o­rem?

29 Aug 2021 18:36 UTC
9 points

# Sub­text is not in­var­i­ant un­der lin­ear transformations

23 Mar 2010 15:49 UTC
47 points

# What Are Prob­a­bil­ities, Any­way?

11 Dec 2009 0:25 UTC
48 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity in­ter­pre­ta­tions: Examples

11 May 2019 20:32 UTC
38 points

# Aver­ages and sam­ple sizes

2 Nov 2023 9:52 UTC
15 points

# [Question] Causal with­out cor­re­la­tion, how?

30 Aug 2021 16:43 UTC
2 points