RSS

Prob­a­bil­ity & Statistics

Tag

How long does it take to be­come Gaus­sian?

Maxwell Peterson8 Dec 2020 7:23 UTC
139 points
40 comments4 min readLW link

Simp­son’s Paradox

bentarm12 Jan 2011 23:01 UTC
100 points
58 comments4 min readLW link

Can we always as­sign, and make sense of, sub­jec­tive prob­a­bil­ities?

MichaelA17 Jan 2020 3:05 UTC
11 points
15 comments13 min readLW link

Risk and un­cer­tainty: A false di­chotomy?

MichaelA18 Jan 2020 3:09 UTC
6 points
9 comments20 min readLW link

How much do you be­lieve your re­sults?

Eric Neyman6 May 2023 20:31 UTC
459 points
14 comments15 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Ap­prox­i­mately Bayesian Rea­son­ing: Knigh­tian Uncer­tainty, Good­hart, and the Look-Else­where Effect

RogerDearnaley26 Jan 2024 3:58 UTC
13 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Laplace’s rule of succession

Ege Erdil23 Nov 2021 15:48 UTC
50 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

An Illus­trated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

lifelonglearner8 Jun 2020 1:54 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

Cor­re­spon­dence vi­su­al­iza­tions for differ­ent in­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8res10 May 2019 17:10 UTC
42 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Re­port like­li­hood ratios

Ege Erdil23 Apr 2022 17:10 UTC
80 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

Mes­sage Length

Zack_M_Davis20 Oct 2020 5:52 UTC
134 points
25 comments12 min readLW link

Fermi Estimates

lukeprog11 Apr 2013 17:52 UTC
114 points
109 comments13 min readLW link

How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

Matt Goldenberg12 Mar 2019 10:14 UTC
55 points
30 comments16 min readLW link

The Tails Com­ing Apart As Me­taphor For Life

Scott Alexander25 Sep 2018 19:10 UTC
151 points
38 comments7 min readLW link4 reviews
(slatestarcodex.com)

[Question] What is a prob­a­bil­is­tic phys­i­cal the­ory?

Ege Erdil25 Dec 2021 16:30 UTC
15 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

A Bayesian Ag­gre­ga­tion Paradox

Jsevillamol22 Nov 2021 10:39 UTC
79 points
22 comments7 min readLW link

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC
46 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

On martingales

Joey Marcellino19 Sep 2023 11:39 UTC
8 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

A time-in­var­i­ant ver­sion of Laplace’s rule

15 Jul 2022 19:28 UTC
72 points
13 comments17 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

How can one ra­tio­nally have very high or very low prob­a­bil­ities of ex­tinc­tion in a pre-paradig­matic field?

shminux30 Apr 2023 21:53 UTC
39 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

E.T. Jaynes Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The logic of Science I

27 Dec 2023 23:47 UTC
60 points
20 comments21 min readLW link

[Question] Why cor­re­la­tion, though?

numpyNaN6 Mar 2024 16:53 UTC
22 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How Often Does ¬Cor­re­la­tion ⇏ ¬Cau­sa­tion?

niplav2 Apr 2024 17:58 UTC
17 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Stat Mech: The Boltz­mann Approach

12 Apr 2024 17:47 UTC
59 points
4 comments20 min readLW link

“How the Gaza Health Ministry Fakes Ca­su­alty Num­bers”

CronoDAS12 Apr 2024 5:57 UTC
−12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(www.tabletmag.com)

Sub­scripts for Probabilities

niplav13 Apr 2023 18:32 UTC
66 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

The Uni­vari­ate Fallacy

Zack_M_Davis15 Jun 2019 21:43 UTC
32 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Bayes’s Theorem

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Jan 2003 20:00 UTC
63 points
10 comments25 min readLW link

Why the tails come apart

Thrasymachus1 Aug 2014 22:41 UTC
316 points
102 comments7 min readLW link

Trust in Bayes

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Jan 2008 23:12 UTC
39 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

Book re­view: Pearl’s Book of Why

PeterMcCluskey7 Jul 2018 17:30 UTC
69 points
8 comments6 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Book Re­view—Prob­a­bil­ity and Fi­nance: It’s Only a Game!

ryan_b23 Jan 2018 18:52 UTC
12 points
9 comments6 min readLW link

Neu­ral un­cer­tainty es­ti­ma­tion re­view ar­ti­cle (for al­ign­ment)

Charlie Steiner5 Dec 2023 8:01 UTC
69 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Fooled by Randomness

Sherrinford13 Jul 2020 21:02 UTC
33 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Cer­tain That 53 Is Prime

ChrisHallquist7 Nov 2013 7:45 UTC
95 points
70 comments6 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence lev­els in­side and out­side an argument

Scott Alexander16 Dec 2010 3:06 UTC
232 points
192 comments6 min readLW link

Beau­tiful Probability

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Jan 2008 7:19 UTC
102 points
123 comments6 min readLW link

The Se­cond Law of Ther­mo­dy­nam­ics, and Eng­ines of Cognition

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Feb 2008 0:48 UTC
167 points
72 comments9 min readLW link

What is Bayesi­anism?

Kaj_Sotala26 Feb 2010 7:43 UTC
115 points
217 comments4 min readLW link

Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

XiXiDu10 Oct 2010 14:54 UTC
162 points
104 comments20 min readLW link

Rad­i­cal Probabilism

abramdemski18 Aug 2020 21:14 UTC
176 points
47 comments35 min readLW link1 review

Statis­ti­cal mod­els & the ir­rele­vance of rare exceptions

patrissimo7 May 2023 15:59 UTC
37 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Bayesian Net­works Aren’t Ne­c­es­sar­ily Causal

Zack_M_Davis14 May 2023 1:42 UTC
88 points
36 comments8 min readLW link

Should cor­re­la­tion co­effi­cients be ex­pressed as an­gles?

Sniffnoy28 Nov 2012 0:05 UTC
101 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

The prob­lem/​solu­tion ma­trix: Calcu­lat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of AI safety “on the back of an en­velope”

John_Maxwell20 Oct 2019 8:03 UTC
22 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part 1: Ba­sic Ter­minol­ogy and the As­sump­tions of Causal Inference

Anders_H30 Jul 2014 20:56 UTC
46 points
26 comments10 min readLW link

Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part II: Graph­i­cal Models

Anders_H4 Aug 2014 23:10 UTC
15 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity Space & Au­mann Agreement

Wei Dai10 Dec 2009 21:57 UTC
52 points
76 comments5 min readLW link

“A Defi­ni­tion of Sub­jec­tive Prob­a­bil­ity” by An­scombe and Aumann

JonahS24 Jan 2014 20:30 UTC
14 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Au­mann’s Agree­ment Revisited

agilecaveman27 Aug 2018 6:21 UTC
4 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

TCB21 May 2011 2:41 UTC
63 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity, knowl­edge, and meta-probability

David_Chapman17 Sep 2013 0:02 UTC
58 points
73 comments5 min readLW link

Case study: abuse of fre­quen­tist statistics

Cyan21 Feb 2010 6:35 UTC
45 points
100 comments3 min readLW link

Bayesi­anism for hu­mans: “prob­a­ble enough”

BT_Uytya2 Sep 2014 21:44 UTC
52 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

Scott Alexander3 Sep 2017 20:56 UTC
72 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Beyond Bayesi­ans and Frequentists

jsteinhardt31 Oct 2012 7:03 UTC
55 points
51 comments11 min readLW link

Rugby & Re­gres­sion Towards the Mean

Bucky30 Oct 2019 16:36 UTC
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] What are prin­ci­pled ways for pe­nal­is­ing com­plex­ity in prac­tice?

Bucky27 Jun 2019 7:28 UTC
36 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Quadratic mod­els and (un)falsified data

Bucky8 Mar 2020 23:34 UTC
32 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Are Bayesian meth­ods guaran­teed to overfit?

Ege Erdil17 Jun 2023 12:52 UTC
52 points
5 comments3 min readLW link
(www.yulingyao.com)

When is cor­re­la­tion tran­si­tive?

Ege Erdil23 Jun 2023 16:09 UTC
83 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

La­tent Vari­ables and Model Mis-Specification

jsteinhardt7 Nov 2018 14:48 UTC
24 points
8 comments9 min readLW link

Mul­ti­vari­ate es­ti­ma­tion & the Squig­gly language

ozziegooen5 Sep 2020 4:35 UTC
44 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Refer­ence Classes

Chris_Leong7 Sep 2020 12:52 UTC
10 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

Bucky6 Oct 2020 17:34 UTC
23 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

“Statis­ti­cal Bias”

Eliezer Yudkowsky30 Mar 2007 18:55 UTC
22 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

“In­duc­tive Bias”

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 Apr 2007 19:52 UTC
39 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

Very Short In­tro­duc­tion to Bayesian Model Com­par­i­son

johnswentworth16 Jul 2019 19:48 UTC
32 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

From Laplace to BIC

johnswentworth19 Jul 2019 16:52 UTC
19 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Bayesian Model Test­ing Comparisons

johnswentworth20 Jul 2019 16:40 UTC
13 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Cross-Val­i­da­tion vs Bayesian Model Comparison

johnswentworth21 Jul 2019 18:14 UTC
26 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

“Pre­dic­tion” and “ex­pla­na­tion” are not causation

jasoncrawford24 Oct 2020 18:55 UTC
12 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
29 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Pre­ci­sion of Sets of Forecasts

niplav19 Sep 2023 18:19 UTC
20 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Fo­rum Karma: view stats and find highly-rated com­ments for any LW user

Max H1 Jul 2023 15:36 UTC
58 points
16 comments2 min readLW link
(forumkarma.com)

The cen­tral limit the­o­rem in terms of convolutions

Maxwell Peterson21 Nov 2020 4:09 UTC
39 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

On Fre­quen­tism and Bayesian Dogma

15 Oct 2023 22:23 UTC
59 points
27 comments6 min readLW link

Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test: prizes, re­sults, and analysis

Eric Neyman15 Jan 2021 6:24 UTC
157 points
22 comments20 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Calcu­lat­ing Kelly

abramdemski22 Feb 2021 17:32 UTC
35 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

The av­er­age North Korean mathematician

Malmesbury7 Mar 2021 17:28 UTC
65 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

Two Dark Side Statis­tics Papers

Scott Alexander2 Jan 2014 5:51 UTC
33 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Map:Ter­ri­tory::Uncer­tainty::Ran­dom­ness – but that doesn’t mat­ter, value of in­for­ma­tion does.

Davidmanheim22 Jan 2016 19:12 UTC
8 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Probability

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:48 UTC
7 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Statis­ti­cal Inference

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:49 UTC
8 points
0 comments18 min readLW link

Hy­poth­e­sis Space Entropy

lsusr14 May 2021 7:21 UTC
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Book Re­view of 5 Ap­plied Bayesian Statis­tics Books

Jan Christian Refsgaard21 May 2021 10:23 UTC
66 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ised mod­els: im­perfect mor­phisms and in­for­ma­tional entropy

Stuart_Armstrong9 Jul 2021 17:35 UTC
9 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

The Effec­tive­ness Of Masks is Limited

Mike Harris21 Sep 2021 17:03 UTC
24 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Aver­age prob­a­bil­ities, not log odds

AlexMennen12 Nov 2021 21:39 UTC
27 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

Use Nor­mal Predictions

Jan Christian Refsgaard9 Jan 2022 15:01 UTC
145 points
67 comments6 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence in­ter­vals seem to be rarely use­ful, in and of themselves

anorangicc5 Feb 2022 11:23 UTC
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

Most likely is not likely

Malmesbury12 Feb 2022 17:27 UTC
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Ep­silon is not a prob­a­bil­ity, it’s a cop-out

shminux15 Feb 2022 2:48 UTC
23 points
35 comments1 min readLW link

12 in­ter­est­ing things I learned study­ing the dis­cov­ery of na­ture’s laws

Ben Pace19 Feb 2022 23:39 UTC
262 points
40 comments9 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Thoughts on the SPIES Fore­cast­ing Method?

Fer32dwt34r3dfsz19 Mar 2022 15:22 UTC
19 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Search­ing for outliers

benkuhn21 Mar 2022 2:40 UTC
169 points
16 comments18 min readLW link1 review
(www.benkuhn.net)

The Case for Fre­quen­tism: Why Bayesian Prob­a­bil­ity is Fun­da­men­tally Un­sound and What Science Does Instead

lsusr3 Apr 2022 20:52 UTC
22 points
29 comments6 min readLW link

scipy.op­ti­mize.curve_fit Is Awesome

niplav7 May 2022 10:57 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

A But­terfly’s View of Probability

Gabriel Wu15 Jun 2022 2:14 UTC
29 points
17 comments11 min readLW link

Six (and a half) in­tu­itions for KL divergence

CallumMcDougall12 Oct 2022 21:07 UTC
154 points
25 comments10 min readLW link1 review
(www.perfectlynormal.co.uk)

Why square er­rors?

Aprillion (Peter Hozák)26 Nov 2022 13:40 UTC
41 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Log­i­cal in­duc­tion for soft­ware engineers

Alex Flint3 Dec 2022 19:55 UTC
160 points
8 comments27 min readLW link1 review

[Question] What does “prob­a­bil­ity” re­ally mean?

sisyphus28 Dec 2022 3:20 UTC
5 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

0 and 1 aren’t probabilities

Alok Singh1 Jan 2023 0:09 UTC
2 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(en.wikipedia.org)

What makes a prob­a­bil­ity ques­tion “well-defined”? (Part II: Ber­trand’s Para­dox)

Noah Topper3 Jan 2023 22:39 UTC
7 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(naivebayes.substack.com)

Vi­su­al­i­sa­tion of Prob­a­bil­ity Mass

brook25 Jan 2023 15:09 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Stan­zas On Power Calculation

DirectedEvolution5 Feb 2023 19:15 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The Logic of Science, Jaynes

David Udell16 Feb 2023 21:57 UTC
29 points
0 comments18 min readLW link

Book Re­view: The End of Average

Vanilla_cabs14 Oct 2021 1:49 UTC
17 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

The Best Text­books on Every Subject

lukeprog16 Jan 2011 8:30 UTC
702 points
409 comments7 min readLW link

Poker with Lennier

HonoreDB15 Nov 2011 22:21 UTC
26 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

The high­est-prob­a­bil­ity out­come can be out of distribution

tailcalled22 Oct 2022 20:00 UTC
13 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Does any­one know what Marvin Min­sky is talk­ing about here?

delton13719 Nov 2021 0:56 UTC
1 point
6 comments3 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity is Sub­jec­tively Objective

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Jul 2008 9:16 UTC
41 points
72 comments11 min readLW link

Pri­ors as Math­e­mat­i­cal Objects

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Apr 2007 3:24 UTC
51 points
20 comments4 min readLW link

Hor­rible LHC Inconsistency

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Sep 2008 3:12 UTC
34 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Imag­ine a World Where Govern­ments Treated COVID-19 Properly

jdcampolargo12 Aug 2020 22:52 UTC
−2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

De­bunked And Well-Refuted

Scott Alexander13 Dec 2014 12:08 UTC
44 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Find­ing the Cen­tral Limit The­o­rem in Bayes’ rule

Maxwell Peterson27 Nov 2021 5:48 UTC
23 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Com­mon Prob­a­bil­ity Distributions

jsteinhardt2 Dec 2021 1:50 UTC
44 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Bayesian Flame

cousin_it26 Jul 2009 16:49 UTC
41 points
163 comments4 min readLW link

[Link] “Fewer than X% of Amer­i­cans know Y”

Nisan10 Oct 2012 16:59 UTC
70 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual out­come state tran­si­tion parameters

Anders_H27 Jul 2018 21:13 UTC
37 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Jul 2008 10:58 UTC
71 points
46 comments6 min readLW link

Com­plex­ity Penalties in Statis­ti­cal Learning

michael_h6 Feb 2019 4:13 UTC
31 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Re­quire­ments for a STEM-ca­pa­ble AGI Value Learner (my Case for Less Doom)

RogerDearnaley25 May 2023 9:26 UTC
32 points
3 comments15 min readLW link

Rais­ing the fore­cast­ing wa­ter­line (part 1)

Morendil9 Oct 2012 15:49 UTC
51 points
107 comments6 min readLW link

DSLT 2. Why Neu­ral Net­works obey Oc­cam’s Razor

Liam Carroll18 Jun 2023 0:23 UTC
20 points
14 comments17 min readLW link

DSLT 4. Phase Tran­si­tions in Neu­ral Networks

Liam Carroll24 Jun 2023 17:22 UTC
30 points
3 comments16 min readLW link

DSLT 3. Neu­ral Net­works are Singular

Liam Carroll20 Jun 2023 8:20 UTC
24 points
5 comments19 min readLW link

Co­var­i­ance in your sam­ple vs co­var­i­ance in the gen­eral population

RomeoStevens16 May 2012 0:17 UTC
41 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Ad­ven­tist Health Study-2 sup­ports pesc­etar­i­anism more than veganism

Elizabeth17 Jun 2023 20:10 UTC
67 points
11 comments6 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Mov­ing to a World Beyond “p < 0.05”

lifelonglearner19 Apr 2019 23:09 UTC
23 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(www.tandfonline.com)

DSLT 0. Distill­ing Sin­gu­lar Learn­ing Theory

Liam Carroll16 Jun 2023 9:50 UTC
74 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

A Gen­er­al­iza­tion of ROC AUC for Bi­nary Classifiers

Adam Scherlis4 Dec 2021 21:47 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

Anti-cor­re­lated causation

DirectedEvolution6 Dec 2021 4:36 UTC
18 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

The dan­gers of zero and one

PhilGoetz21 Nov 2013 12:21 UTC
48 points
68 comments3 min readLW link

How sub­jec­tive is at­trac­tive­ness?

JonahS13 Jan 2015 0:04 UTC
36 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Vi­su­al­iz­ing the power of mul­ti­ple step se­lec­tion pro­cesses in JS: Gal­ton’s bean machine

gwern12 Jan 2019 17:58 UTC
27 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

(Sub­jec­tive Bayesi­anism vs. Fre­quen­tism) VS. For­mal­ism

Ronny Fernandez26 Nov 2011 5:05 UTC
32 points
107 comments5 min readLW link

Laplace Approximation

johnswentworth18 Jul 2019 15:23 UTC
29 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

VC The­ory Overview

Joar Skalse2 Jul 2023 22:45 UTC
10 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

The In­spec­tion Para­dox is Everywhere

Chris_Leong15 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC
24 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(allendowney.blogspot.com)

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

shminux17 Aug 2019 21:47 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

In­her­ited Im­prob­a­bil­ities: Trans­fer­ring the Bur­den of Proof

komponisto24 Nov 2010 3:40 UTC
46 points
58 comments8 min readLW link

On the Im­por­tance of Sys­tem­atic Bi­ases in Science

gwern20 Jan 2013 21:39 UTC
43 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

Monty Hall in the Wild

Jacob Falkovich6 Jun 2018 18:03 UTC
24 points
9 comments6 min readLW link

Us­ing ma­chine learn­ing to pre­dict ro­man­tic com­pat­i­bil­ity: em­piri­cal results

JonahS17 Dec 2014 2:54 UTC
37 points
18 comments11 min readLW link

Out-of-body rea­son­ing (OOBR)

Jon Zero9 Jan 2021 16:10 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why are prob­a­bil­ities rep­re­sented as real num­bers in­stead of ra­tio­nal num­bers?

Yaakov T27 Oct 2022 11:23 UTC
5 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Some thoughts about an es­ti­ma­tor by Taleb

paladim4 Jan 2022 5:37 UTC
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any good, easy-to-un­der­stand ex­am­ples of cases where statis­ti­cal causal net­work dis­cov­ery worked well in prac­tice?

tailcalled12 Jul 2023 22:08 UTC
42 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Tar­get for Tonight: A Drama In One Act

vernamcipher16 Jan 2022 4:29 UTC
4 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Too good to be true

PhilGoetz11 Jul 2014 20:16 UTC
35 points
121 comments4 min readLW link

[Draft] Poker With Lennier

HonoreDB10 Nov 2011 17:14 UTC
29 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

How to come up with ver­bal probabilities

jimmy29 Apr 2009 8:35 UTC
27 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

Learn­ing as you play: an­thropic shadow in deadly games

dr_s12 Aug 2023 7:34 UTC
37 points
28 comments35 min readLW link

Ret­ro­spec­tive forecasting

Ege Erdil30 Jan 2022 16:38 UTC
22 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Mir­a­cles and why not to be­lieve them

mruwnik16 Nov 2022 12:07 UTC
4 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Where to start with statis­tics if I want to mea­sure things?

matto20 Apr 2023 22:40 UTC
21 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Re­view: Bayesian Statis­tics the Fun Way by Will Kurt

matto19 Nov 2022 18:52 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

A com­pila­tion of mi­suses of statistics

Younes Kamel14 Feb 2022 21:53 UTC
4 points
11 comments13 min readLW link
(youneskamel.substack.com)

The AI Con­trol Prob­lem in a wider in­tel­lec­tual context

philosophybear13 Jan 2023 0:28 UTC
11 points
3 comments12 min readLW link

Why Bet Kelly?

Joe Zimmerman29 Nov 2022 18:47 UTC
16 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Use­ful Statis­ti­cal Biases

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Apr 2007 4:51 UTC
19 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

“Gen­langs” and Zipf’s Law: Do lan­guages gen­er­ated by ChatGPT statis­ti­cally look hu­man?

Justin-Diamond31 Jan 2024 18:30 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

What’s wrong with this pic­ture?

CronoDAS28 Jan 2016 13:30 UTC
29 points
81 comments1 min readLW link

Kling, Prob­a­bil­ity, and Economics

matt30 Mar 2009 5:15 UTC
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

Sam­ple means, how do they work?

Benquo20 Nov 2016 21:04 UTC
34 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist prac­tice in­cor­po­rates prior in­for­ma­tion all the time

Maxwell Peterson7 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC
18 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

From game the­ory to play­ers theory

Victor Porton15 Sep 2023 6:23 UTC
−4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Does there ex­ist a de­tailed Bayesian COVID tracker?

Optimization Process12 Nov 2020 5:06 UTC
8 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

How Not to be Stupid: Adorable Maybes

Psy-Kosh29 Apr 2009 19:15 UTC
1 point
55 comments3 min readLW link

The me­dian and mode use less in­for­ma­tion than the mean does

Maxwell Peterson1 Apr 2022 21:25 UTC
10 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Log-odds (or log­its)

brilee28 Nov 2011 1:11 UTC
31 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Did any­body calcu­late the Bri­ers score for per-state elec­tion fore­casts?

ChristianKl10 Nov 2020 17:51 UTC
11 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

The Fal­lacy of Large Numbers

dspeyer12 Aug 2012 18:39 UTC
30 points
31 comments2 min readLW link

Free Stats Text­book: Prin­ci­ples of Uncertainty

badger24 May 2011 19:45 UTC
29 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal use of the Beta dis­tri­bu­tion for data analysis

Maxwell Peterson3 Apr 2022 7:34 UTC
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Cur­rent State of Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic

lunatic_at_large7 Oct 2023 5:06 UTC
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Un­der­speci­fied Prob­a­bil­ities: A Thought Ex­per­i­ment

lunatic_at_large4 Oct 2023 22:25 UTC
8 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tions and writ­ing style

dclayh4 Jun 2009 6:17 UTC
6 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

in­dex­i­cal un­cer­tainty and the Ax­iom of Independence

Wei Dai7 Jun 2009 9:18 UTC
26 points
79 comments3 min readLW link

A hun­dredth of a bit of ex­tra entropy

Adam Scherlis24 Dec 2022 21:12 UTC
83 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Con­volu­tion as smoothing

Maxwell Peterson25 Nov 2020 6:00 UTC
28 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Causal­ity does not im­ply correlation

Richard_Kennaway8 Jul 2009 0:52 UTC
18 points
58 comments4 min readLW link

An el­e­gant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

Eric Neyman7 Dec 2020 22:43 UTC
33 points
7 comments8 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

The Pre­dic­tion Hierarchy

RobinZ19 Jan 2010 3:36 UTC
28 points
38 comments3 min readLW link

Don’t be afraid of the thou­sand-year-old vampire

Ulisse Mini18 Apr 2022 1:22 UTC
37 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] In­finite tower of meta-probability

fryolysis19 Oct 2023 16:44 UTC
6 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Eliezer’s ex­am­ple on Bayesian statis­tics is wr… oops!

Zane17 Oct 2023 18:38 UTC
70 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

How Less­wrong helped me make $25K: A ra­tio­nal pric­ing strategy

kareemabukhadra21 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC
50 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Math-to-English Cheat Sheet

nahoj8 Apr 2024 9:19 UTC
52 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing AGI by the Tur­ing Test

Yuxi_Liu22 Jan 2024 4:22 UTC
21 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(yuxi-liu-wired.github.io)

Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 17:40 UTC
11 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity vs Likelihood

abramdemski10 Nov 2020 21:28 UTC
110 points
10 comments12 min readLW link

De­con­fus­ing Lan­dauer’s Principle

EuanMcLean27 May 2022 17:58 UTC
59 points
12 comments15 min readLW link

Are dogs bad?

qbolec11 Mar 2021 8:11 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

A con­cep­tual pre­cur­sor to to­day’s lan­guage ma­chines [Shan­non]

Bill Benzon15 Nov 2023 13:50 UTC
24 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What is the se­man­tics of as­sign­ing prob­a­bil­ities to fu­ture events?

Michal1 Apr 2021 0:29 UTC
12 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Re­marks on the Con­ver­gence in Distri­bu­tion of Ran­dom Neu­ral Net­works to Gaus­sian Pro­cesses in the In­finite Width Limit

Spencer Becker-Kahn30 Nov 2023 14:01 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(drive.google.com)

Born as the sev­enth month dies …

Rudi C10 Jul 2020 15:07 UTC
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

The Solu­tion to Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coat4 Mar 2024 6:46 UTC
12 points
60 comments13 min readLW link

The Ja­panese Quiz: a Thought Ex­per­i­ment of Statis­ti­cal Epistemology

DanB8 Apr 2021 17:37 UTC
11 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What is the most prob­a­ble AI?

Zeruel01720 Jun 2022 23:26 UTC
−2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Five views of Bayes’ Theorem

Adam Scherlis2 Jul 2022 2:25 UTC
38 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

a vi­sual ex­pla­na­tion of Bayesian updating

Jan Christian Refsgaard8 May 2021 19:45 UTC
20 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.badprior.com)

Does but­terfly af­fect?

pchvykov14 May 2021 4:20 UTC
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Are (Mo­tor)sports like F1 a good thing to cal­ibrate es­ti­mates against?

CstineSublime24 Mar 2024 9:07 UTC
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Utility func­tions and prob­a­bil­ities are entangled

Thomas Kwa26 Jul 2022 5:36 UTC
15 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

The Gen­er­al­ized Product Rule

aysajan8 Jun 2021 16:39 UTC
34 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Is it true that most stud­ies in Kah­ne­man’s ‘Think­ing fast and slow’ are not repli­ca­ble and the book is largely not sup­ported by ev­i­dence?

Davy Jones30 Jun 2021 7:14 UTC
17 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Shut Up And Guess

Scott Alexander21 Jul 2009 4:04 UTC
124 points
110 comments5 min readLW link

If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

ata12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC
136 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

“No ev­i­dence” as a Valley of Bad Rationality

Adam Zerner28 Mar 2020 23:45 UTC
106 points
21 comments2 min readLW link1 review

Why We Can’t Take Ex­pected Value Es­ti­mates Liter­ally (Even When They’re Un­bi­ased)

HoldenKarnofsky18 Aug 2011 23:34 UTC
123 points
253 comments17 min readLW link

Co-Proofs

abramdemski21 May 2018 21:10 UTC
40 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

A Proper Scor­ing Rule for Con­fi­dence Intervals

Scott Garrabrant13 Feb 2018 1:45 UTC
63 points
47 comments1 min readLW link

Me­taMed: Ev­i­dence-Based Healthcare

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Mar 2013 13:16 UTC
112 points
193 comments6 min readLW link

Even if you have a nail, not all ham­mers are the same

PhilGoetz29 Mar 2010 18:09 UTC
150 points
126 comments6 min readLW link

Rea­son­able Explanations

Alicorn16 Jun 2019 5:29 UTC
78 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Tech­niques for prob­a­bil­ity estimates

Scott Alexander4 Jan 2011 23:38 UTC
104 points
60 comments7 min readLW link

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

Xachariah3 May 2012 1:35 UTC
136 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity space has 2 metrics

Donald Hobson10 Feb 2019 0:28 UTC
88 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist Statis­tics are Fre­quently Subjective

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Dec 2009 20:22 UTC
86 points
82 comments8 min readLW link

Ex­ces­sive EDA Effortposting

abstractapplic3 Jun 2018 19:17 UTC
44 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Reflec­tion in Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic

Eliezer Yudkowsky24 Mar 2013 16:37 UTC
112 points
168 comments3 min readLW link

His­tory of LessWrong: Some Data Graphics

Said Achmiz16 Nov 2018 7:07 UTC
65 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

A Mo­tor­cy­cle (and Cal­ibra­tion?) Accident

boggler18 Mar 2018 22:21 UTC
25 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Against NHST

gwern21 Dec 2012 4:45 UTC
93 points
66 comments4 min readLW link

Anti-akra­sia tool: like stickK.com for data nerds

dreeves10 Oct 2011 2:09 UTC
80 points
88 comments2 min readLW link

New Im­proved Lottery

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Apr 2007 23:42 UTC
101 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Gears vs Behavior

johnswentworth19 Sep 2019 6:50 UTC
102 points
13 comments7 min readLW link1 review

In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8res9 May 2019 19:16 UTC
68 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

What would con­vince you you’d won the lot­tery?

Stuart_Armstrong10 Oct 2017 13:45 UTC
28 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Cir­cu­lar Altruism

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2008 18:00 UTC
83 points
310 comments4 min readLW link

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Jan 2008 6:58 UTC
96 points
149 comments5 min readLW link

A Fer­vent Defense of Fre­quen­tist Statistics

jsteinhardt18 Feb 2014 20:08 UTC
75 points
129 comments16 min readLW link

Fun­nel plots: the study that didn’t bark, or, vi­su­al­iz­ing re­gres­sion to the null

gwern4 Dec 2011 11:05 UTC
69 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Lot­ter­ies: A Waste of Hope

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Apr 2007 5:36 UTC
84 points
73 comments2 min readLW link

Con­founded No Longer: In­sights from ‘All of Statis­tics’

TurnTrout3 May 2018 22:56 UTC
21 points
7 comments10 min readLW link

Effect het­ero­gene­ity and ex­ter­nal val­idity in medicine

Anders_H25 Oct 2019 20:53 UTC
49 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist Magic vs. Bayesian Magic

Wei Dai8 Apr 2010 20:34 UTC
58 points
83 comments3 min readLW link

Noisy Poll Re­sults And Rep­tilian Mus­lim Cli­ma­tol­o­gists from Mars

Scott Alexander12 Apr 2013 10:49 UTC
40 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Aver­ag­ing sam­ples from a pop­u­la­tion with log-nor­mal distribution

CrimsonChin3 Nov 2023 19:42 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Diseased dis­ci­plines: the strange case of the in­verted chart

Morendil7 Feb 2012 9:45 UTC
62 points
150 comments4 min readLW link

Multiplicitous

Jacob Falkovich18 Dec 2016 16:39 UTC
9 points
0 comments12 min readLW link
(putanumonit.com)

Wolf’s Dice II: What Asym­me­try?

johnswentworth17 Jul 2019 15:22 UTC
34 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Wolf’s Dice

johnswentworth16 Jul 2019 19:50 UTC
35 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Statis­tics for vague con­cepts and “Colors” of places

Q Home19 Aug 2022 10:33 UTC
−1 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Chart­ing Deaths: Real­ity vs Reported

lifelonglearner30 Mar 2018 0:50 UTC
13 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(owenshen24.github.io)

The Pyra­mid And The Garden

Scott Alexander5 Nov 2016 6:03 UTC
49 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Jay­ne­sian in­ter­pre­ta­tion—How does “es­ti­mat­ing prob­a­bil­ities” make sense?

Haziq Muhammad21 Jul 2021 21:36 UTC
4 points
40 comments1 min readLW link

The Statis­ti­cian’s Fallacy

ChrisHallquist9 Dec 2013 4:48 UTC
63 points
69 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Do Bayesi­ans like Bayesian model Aver­ag­ing?

Haziq Muhammad2 Aug 2021 12:24 UTC
4 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

DSLT 1. The RLCT Mea­sures the Effec­tive Di­men­sion of Neu­ral Networks

Liam Carroll16 Jun 2023 9:50 UTC
45 points
8 comments13 min readLW link

Us­ing de­grees of free­dom to change the past for fun and profit

CarlShulman7 Mar 2012 2:51 UTC
64 points
23 comments9 min readLW link

In­stinc­tive Fre­quen­tists, the Out­side View, and de-Biasing

Stuart_Armstrong20 Sep 2013 20:19 UTC
63 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Hu­man perfor­mance, psy­chom­e­try, and base­ball statistics

Craig_Heldreth15 Oct 2010 13:13 UTC
33 points
21 comments6 min readLW link

No non­sense ver­sion of the “racial al­gorithm bias”

Yuxi_Liu13 Jul 2019 15:39 UTC
115 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­topian con­test, but for food in­take and weight

Lucent8 Nov 2023 5:41 UTC
40 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

A Pois­son pro­cess paradox

nerfhammer6 Apr 2012 5:20 UTC
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Bayes’ The­o­rem in three pictures

Sunny from QAD21 Jul 2019 7:01 UTC
30 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Halpern’s pa­per—A re­fu­ta­tion of Cox’s the­o­rem?

Haziq Muhammad11 Aug 2021 9:25 UTC
13 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Crypto quant trad­ing: Intro

Alexei17 Apr 2019 20:52 UTC
62 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

Crypto quant trad­ing: Naive Bayes

Alexei7 May 2019 19:29 UTC
33 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

How Should We Cri­tique Re­search? A De­ci­sion Perspective

gwern14 Jul 2019 22:51 UTC
46 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Jaynes-Cox Prob­a­bil­ity: Are plau­si­bil­ities ob­jec­tive?

Haziq Muhammad12 Aug 2021 14:23 UTC
9 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Has Van Horn fixed Cox’s the­o­rem?

Haziq Muhammad29 Aug 2021 18:36 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Sub­text is not in­var­i­ant un­der lin­ear transformations

PhilGoetz23 Mar 2010 15:49 UTC
47 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

What Are Prob­a­bil­ities, Any­way?

Wei Dai11 Dec 2009 0:25 UTC
48 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity in­ter­pre­ta­tions: Examples

So8res11 May 2019 20:32 UTC
38 points
23 comments5 min readLW link

Aver­ages and sam­ple sizes

mruwnik2 Nov 2023 9:52 UTC
15 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Causal with­out cor­re­la­tion, how?

MoritzG30 Aug 2021 16:43 UTC
2 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is LessWrong dead with­out Cox’s the­o­rem?

Haziq Muhammad4 Sep 2021 5:45 UTC
−2 points
89 comments1 min readLW link

Statis­tics for ob­jects with shared identities

Q Home3 Oct 2022 9:21 UTC
2 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
No comments.