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Pre­dic­tion Markets

TagLast edit: 7 Sep 2023 10:07 UTC by Yoav Ravid

Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event or parameter. The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker. Robin Hanson was the first to run a corporate prediction market—at Project Xanadu -, and has made several contributions to the field such as: conditional predictions, accuracy issues and market and media manipulation.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.

Predictions markets have been used by organizations such as Google, General Electric, and Microsoft; several online and commercial prediction markets are also in operation. Historically, prediction markets have often been used to predict election outcomes.

See Also

External Posts

External Links

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets: When Do They Work?

Zvi26 Jul 2018 12:30 UTC
162 points
17 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyer14 Jul 2020 7:24 UTC
191 points
48 comments7 min readLW link

Launch­ing Fore­cast, a com­mu­nity for crowd­sourced pre­dic­tions from Facebook

Rebecca Kossnick20 Oct 2020 6:20 UTC
111 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Un­known Knowns

Zvi28 Aug 2018 13:20 UTC
120 points
17 comments2 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Sub­si­diz­ing Pre­dic­tion Markets

Zvi17 Aug 2018 15:40 UTC
96 points
8 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Am­bi­guity in Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Re­s­olu­tion is Harmful

aphyer26 Sep 2022 16:22 UTC
69 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

Tales from Pre­dic­tion Markets

ike3 Apr 2021 23:38 UTC
128 points
15 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets for in­ter­net points?

paulfchristiano27 Oct 2019 19:30 UTC
47 points
9 comments5 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Science

Vaniver2 Jan 2023 17:55 UTC
27 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

The Base Rate Times, news through pre­dic­tion markets

vandemonian6 Jun 2023 17:42 UTC
267 points
39 comments4 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Markets

eva_2 Nov 2022 1:24 UTC
46 points
6 comments12 min readLW link

[Cross­post] ACX 2022 Pre­dic­tion Con­test Results

24 Jan 2023 6:56 UTC
46 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing the fu­ture with the power of the In­ter­net (and piss­ing off Rob Miles)

Writer15 Dec 2023 17:37 UTC
23 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

The Bayesian Tyrant

abramdemski20 Aug 2020 0:08 UTC
140 points
21 comments6 min readLW link1 review

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are for Out­comes Beyond Our Control

lsusr9 Feb 2022 9:54 UTC
56 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Free Money at Pre­dic­tIt?

Zvi26 Sep 2019 16:10 UTC
49 points
17 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine Post #1: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Zvi28 Feb 2022 19:20 UTC
67 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets aren’t Magic

SimonM21 Dec 2023 12:54 UTC
90 points
29 comments3 min readLW link

On Robin Han­son’s Board Game

Zvi8 Sep 2018 17:10 UTC
49 points
15 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dict­ing for charity

Austin Chen2 May 2022 22:59 UTC
43 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are good elec­tion bet­ting op­por­tu­ni­ties?

Scott Garrabrant29 Oct 2020 7:19 UTC
32 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How “should” coun­ter­fac­tual pre­dic­tion mar­kets work?

eapi25 Jun 2022 17:44 UTC
9 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt is clos­ing due to CFTC chang­ing its mind

eigen6 Aug 2022 3:34 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

How to In­ter­pret Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Prices as Probabilities

SimonM9 May 2023 14:12 UTC
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Post­mortem: Try­ing out for Man­i­fold Markets

8 Sep 2022 17:54 UTC
24 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Are About Be­ing Right

Zvi8 Dec 2018 14:00 UTC
83 points
7 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Re­s­olu­tions to the Challenge of Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim11 Mar 2021 19:08 UTC
58 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] When does adding more peo­ple re­li­ably make a sys­tem bet­ter?

jacobjacob19 Jul 2019 4:21 UTC
30 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a good way to award a fixed prize in a pre­dic­tion con­test?

jchan2 Nov 2022 21:37 UTC
18 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

List of pre­vi­ous pre­dic­tion mar­ket projects

jacobjacob22 Oct 2018 0:45 UTC
32 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(jacoblagerros.wordpress.com)

Log­i­cal Share Splitting

DaemonicSigil11 Sep 2023 4:08 UTC
88 points
16 comments9 min readLW link
(pbement.com)

Are Me­tac­u­lus AI Timelines In­con­sis­tent?

Chris_Leong2 Jan 2024 6:47 UTC
16 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Will Man­i­fold Mar­kets/​Me­tac­u­lus have built-in sup­port for re­flec­tive la­tent vari­ables by 2025?

tailcalled10 Dec 2022 13:55 UTC
34 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Two Truths and a Pre­dic­tion Market

Screwtape23 Dec 2022 18:52 UTC
21 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
29 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Hiring de­ci­sions are not suit­able for pre­dic­tion markets

SimonM8 Jan 2024 21:11 UTC
12 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

La­tent vari­ables for pre­dic­tion mar­kets: mo­ti­va­tion, tech­ni­cal guide, and de­sign considerations

tailcalled12 Feb 2023 17:54 UTC
92 points
17 comments23 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets cov­ered in the NYT pod­cast “Hard Fork”

Austin Chen13 Oct 2023 18:43 UTC
56 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nytimes.com)

Con­di­tional pre­dic­tion mar­kets are ev­i­den­tial, not causal

philh7 Feb 2024 21:52 UTC
54 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Time Travel Mar­kets for In­tel­lec­tual Accounting

abramdemski9 Nov 2020 16:58 UTC
45 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

Should you an­nounce your bets pub­li­cly?

Ege Erdil4 Jul 2023 0:11 UTC
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Kelly bettors

DanielFilan13 Nov 2018 0:40 UTC
24 points
3 comments10 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Please Bet On My Quan­tified Self De­ci­sion Markets

niplav1 Dec 2023 20:07 UTC
36 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

How to make real-money pre­dic­tion mar­kets on ar­bi­trary top­ics (Out­dated)

yutaka30 Jul 2023 2:11 UTC
57 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

The Apoca­lypse Bet

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Aug 2007 17:23 UTC
49 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

Covid Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets at Polymarket

Zvi2 Dec 2021 12:50 UTC
39 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Poly­mar­ket Covid-19 1/​17/​2022

Zvi17 Jan 2022 16:10 UTC
38 points
10 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempere3 Feb 2022 19:22 UTC
17 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Bet on Rare Un­de­sir­able Out­comes when Seed­ing a Pre­dic­tion Market

lsusr10 Feb 2022 0:20 UTC
33 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Your Ene­mies Can Use Your Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Against You

lsusr10 Feb 2022 10:37 UTC
42 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Help fore­cast study repli­ca­tion in this so­cial sci­ence pre­dic­tion market

rosiecam7 Aug 2019 18:18 UTC
29 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine #4: Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Move­ment Modeling

Zvi15 Mar 2022 22:20 UTC
28 points
2 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine Post #7: Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Update

Zvi28 Mar 2022 16:10 UTC
45 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Anti-Cor­rup­tion Market

lsusr1 Apr 2022 12:57 UTC
82 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Us­ing Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets to Guide Govern­ment Policy

lsusr1 Apr 2022 10:21 UTC
38 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

AI Re­search Pro­gram Pre­dic­tion Markets

tailcalled20 Oct 2022 13:42 UTC
38 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Mar­kets 2: Op­ti­mally Shaped Re­ward Bets

eva_3 Nov 2022 11:08 UTC
9 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

When will GPT-5 come out? Pre­dic­tion mar­kets vs. Extrapolation

Malte12 Dec 2023 2:41 UTC
13 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Notes on an Ex­per­i­ment with Markets

Jeffrey Heninger23 Nov 2022 16:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Ver­bal par­ity: What is it and how to mea­sure it? + an ed­ited ver­sion of “Against John Searle, Gary Mar­cus, the Chi­nese Room thought ex­per­i­ment and its world”

philosophybear31 Dec 2022 3:46 UTC
2 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Stop-gra­di­ents lead to fixed point predictions

28 Jan 2023 22:47 UTC
36 points
2 comments24 min readLW link

Cu­rated blind auc­tion pre­dic­tion mar­kets and a rep­u­ta­tion sys­tem as an al­ter­na­tive to ed­i­to­rial re­view in news pub­li­ca­tion.

ciaran 9 Feb 2023 18:48 UTC
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ism and so­cial rationalism

philosophybear10 Mar 2023 23:20 UTC
17 points
5 comments10 min readLW link
(philosophybear.substack.com)

How well did Man­i­fold pre­dict GPT-4?

David Chee15 Mar 2023 23:19 UTC
48 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

We need bet­ter pre­dic­tion markets

eigen15 Nov 2022 4:54 UTC
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Link Col­lec­tion: Im­pact Markets

Saul Munn26 Dec 2023 9:01 UTC
13 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.brasstacks.blog)

[Question] Why have in­surance mar­kets suc­ceeded where pre­dic­tion mar­kets have not?

JNank21 Jan 2024 0:35 UTC
13 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Run­ning a Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Mafia Game

Arjun Panickssery1 Feb 2024 23:24 UTC
22 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arjunpanickssery.substack.com)

Miss­ing fore­cast­ing tools: from cat­a­logs to a new kind of pre­dic­tion market

MichaelLatowicki29 Mar 2023 9:55 UTC
14 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Aiming for Con­ver­gence Is Like Dis­cour­ag­ing Betting

Zack_M_Davis1 Feb 2023 0:03 UTC
60 points
17 comments11 min readLW link

Zvi’s Man­i­fold Mar­kets House Rules

Zvi13 Nov 2023 0:28 UTC
39 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Bet­ting on what is un-falsifi­able and un-verifiable

Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir14 Nov 2023 21:11 UTC
9 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Solv­ing Two-Sided Ad­verse Selec­tion with Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Matchmaking

Saul Munn26 Nov 2023 20:10 UTC
16 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(www.brasstacks.blog)

1001 Pre­dic­tionBook Nights

gwern8 Oct 2011 16:04 UTC
72 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion-Aug­mented Eval­u­a­tion Systems

ozziegooen9 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC
44 points
12 comments8 min readLW link

Buy Now Or For­ever Hold Your Peace

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Feb 2008 21:42 UTC
39 points
58 comments1 min readLW link

Man­i­fold Pre­dicted the AI Ex­tinc­tion State­ment and CAIS Wanted it Deleted

David Chee12 Jun 2023 15:54 UTC
70 points
14 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Ques­tion for Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket peo­ple: where is the money sup­posed to come from?

Robert_AIZI8 Jun 2023 13:58 UTC
25 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] Get paid to train your rationality

XFrequentist3 Aug 2011 15:01 UTC
40 points
55 comments3 min readLW link

Towards no-math, graph­i­cal in­struc­tions for pre­dic­tion markets

ryan_b4 Jan 2019 16:39 UTC
30 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion mar­ket se­quence requested

[deleted]26 Oct 2012 10:59 UTC
39 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket: Will I Pull “The One Ring To Rule Them All?”

Connor Tabarrok28 Jun 2023 2:41 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Pre­dict­ing: Quick Start

duck_master1 Jul 2023 3:43 UTC
9 points
3 comments14 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC
26 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Acausal Now: We could to­tally acausally bar­gain with aliens at our cur­rent tech level if desired

Christopher King9 Aug 2023 0:50 UTC
1 point
5 comments4 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing Man­i­fest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

14 Aug 2023 5:13 UTC
31 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

sapphire17 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
42 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

In­trade and the Dow Drop

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Oct 2008 3:12 UTC
4 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Real-time hiring with pre­dic­tion markets

ryan_b9 Nov 2018 22:10 UTC
17 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion should be a sport

chaosmage10 Aug 2017 7:55 UTC
22 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt, a pre­dic­tion mar­ket out of New Zealand, now in beta.

Jayson_Virissimo16 Mar 2015 2:02 UTC
21 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2009 8:56 UTC
12 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

Last Chance: Get tick­ets to Man­i­fest 2023! (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

6 Sep 2023 10:35 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

2011 In­trade fee changes, or, In­trade con­sid­ered no longer use­ful for LessWrongers

gwern2 Jan 2011 17:46 UTC
34 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­gram­matic Pre­dic­tion markets

whpearson25 Apr 2009 9:29 UTC
7 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Share your per­sonal sto­ries of pre­dic­tion markets

Tim Liptrot4 Nov 2020 16:09 UTC
15 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pacts of AI on the hous­ing markets

PottedRosePetal5 Oct 2023 21:24 UTC
8 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Recom­men­da­tion for a good in­ter­na­tional event bet­ting site like pre­dic­tit.org

df fd7 Dec 2020 9:09 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

OPTIC: An­nounc­ing In­ter­col­le­giate Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ments in SF, DC, Boston

13 Oct 2023 1:36 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­mot­ing Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets With Mean­ingless In­ter­net-Point Badges

1a3orn8 Feb 2021 19:03 UTC
59 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­ploit­ing Crypto Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Fun and Profit

Srdjan Miletic13 Mar 2021 2:31 UTC
31 points
25 comments5 min readLW link

Vio­lat­ing the EMH—Pre­dic­tion Markets

sapphire28 Mar 2021 4:05 UTC
40 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is Ray Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tion ac­cu­racy still be­ing tracked?

CraigMichael20 May 2021 0:06 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

An In­tro­duc­tion to Pre­dic­tion Markets

Annapurna14 Jun 2021 16:43 UTC
9 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Risk Premiums vs Pre­dic­tion Markets

SimonM28 Jul 2021 23:03 UTC
33 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonM2 Jan 2022 11:55 UTC
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

9 Feb 2022 17:36 UTC
50 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Cap­tur­ing Uncer­tainty in Pre­dic­tion Markets

hawkebia24 Feb 2022 17:23 UTC
2 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam Marks6 Mar 2022 6:24 UTC
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing a global catas­tro­phe: the Ukrainian model

RomanS7 Apr 2022 12:06 UTC
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Manafold Mar­kets is out of mana 🤭

Austin Chen1 Apr 2022 22:07 UTC
36 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pected Value vs. Ex­pected Growth

tom-pollak5 Jun 2022 18:48 UTC
3 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets meetup/​cowork­ing (hosted by Man­i­fold Mar­kets)

26 Jul 2022 0:14 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Pon­der­ing the paucity of vol­canic pro­fan­ity post Pom­peii perusal

CraigMichael1 Sep 2022 9:29 UTC
21 points
2 comments15 min readLW link

Me­dia Publi­ca­tion Governed by Pre­dic­tion Markets

joao_abrantes30 Sep 2022 10:01 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(joao-abrantes.com)

[Question] In­ter­est­ing pre­dic­tions on man­i­fold.markets

jmh1 Oct 2022 16:09 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

How To Make Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Use­ful For Align­ment Work

johnswentworth18 Oct 2022 19:01 UTC
95 points
18 comments2 min readLW link
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