This is cool! I think I’m updating toward the logistic fit not mattering. The question I have now is: what would it have taken on this underlying data for the log-linear trend not to hold. My guess is models not making progress for months, and staying at similar aggregate accuracy (with success rates staying roughly inversely correlated with task length).
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OpenForecaster: How to train language models for open-ended forecasting?
The mean estimate of 50% success horizon length (headline number METR reports) went from ~1 to ~4 hours. The progress within the hour subranges is difficult to draw much information from, given the low number of data points, and distribution biases in topics. This is the precise claim of the new post I made, and linked :)
Thanks for checking this. Log-linear isn’t that different from logistic in how it would affect the downstream prediction. Could you (someone at METR) update the public all-results file on GitHub so we can play around with this data?
I am particularly curious to know what would happen if we took the 50% horizon as the startpoint of the first bar the model drops below 50% accuracy. This increases uncertainty, but it would be interesting to see what trend comes out, and how model rankings change (is opus 4.5 a big update?).
I do expect it would still be an exponential trend, and agree with you that the underlying data distribution (specifically the topics aligning exactly with frontier lab priorities) is the more risky confounder. Although one could argue for choosing to do it this way, it just reduces chances of the horizon length being relevant outside the model’s strongest areas.
thats an interesting point. If I kept adding points to the right, i.e. longer and longer tasks which I know the model would fail on, it would keep making the line flatter? That kind of makes me wonder, once again, if its even a good idea to try and fit a line here...
Thanks, I should’ve done that myself instead of lazily mentioning what it “looked like”. R^2=0.51 is still a lot lower than the initial 0.83. Though same as before, I am not fully sure what this implies for the logistic model chosen, and downstream conclusions.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2RwDgMXo6nh42egoC/how-to-game-the-metr-plot
Claude’s performance is low on the 2-4 hour range, which mostly consists of cybersecurity tasks, potentially dual-use for safety. In general, training on cybersecurity CTFs and ML code would increase “horizon length” on the METR plot, which only has 14 samples in the relevant (1 − 4hr) range where progress happened in 2025.
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How to game the METR plot
Its a linkpost for https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09677
I did make it a linkpost, not sure if just adding a summary isn’t traditional?
Thanks these are some great ideas. another thing you guys might want to look into is shifting away from mcqs towards answer matching evaluations: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qss7pWyPwCaxa3CvG/new-paper-it-is-time-to-move-on-from-mcqs-for-llm
New Paper: It is time to move on from MCQs for LLM Evaluations
An Alternative Way to Forecast AGI: Counting Down Capabilities
Yes, that is a good takeaway!
Hey, thanks for checking. The qwen2.5 MATH results are on the full MATH dataset so are not comparable here, as the Spurious rewards paper uses MATH500. The Hochlehnert et al. paper has the results on MATH500, so that is why we took it from there.
I do agree that ideally we should re-evaluate all models on the same more reliable evaluation setup. However to the best of our knowledge the papers have not released open-weight checkpoints. The most transparent way to fix all these issues is papers releasing sample-level outputs going forward, so its easy for people to figure out whats going on.
All this said, in the end, our main point is only: If changing inference hyperparameters can give higher accuracy, is RL improving “reasoning abilities”?
Incorrect Baseline Evaluations Call into Question Recent LLM-RL Claims
Plug, but model mistakes have been getting more similar as capabilities increase. This also means that these correlated failures appearing now will go away together
Various baselines have long been underrated in Interp literature, and now that we are re-realizing their importance, I’ll bring up some results we found in MATS′23 that in hindsight should probably have received more attention: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JCgs7jGEvritqFLfR/evaluating-hidden-directions-on-the-utility-dataset
We found that linear probes are great for classification, but they mostly fit spurious correlations, which can still be good if prediction is the end goal, such as when trying to identify deception. However, the directions found by a linear probe can’t be steered or ablated.
What works really well (and is still under-explored) is the vector obtained by subtracting the class means. Both for causal steering and classification. LEACE showed that this is infact the optimal linear erasure theoretically.
Unsupervised methods (like PCA) are less good at prediction but still quite good for causal interventions.
These results only got published as Figure 12 of the Representation Engineering paper, though in hindsight maybe it would have helped to highlight them more prominently as a paper of their own. SAEs were just being ‘discovered’ around this time (I remember @Hoagy was working on this at MATS′23) so we didn’t benchmark them unfortunately.
Thanks! I fixed the last paragraph accordingly. I indeed wanted to say faster-than-linearly for the highest feasible k.
That’s quite possible. I’m not sure how much that plays out with reinforcement learning training though.