Ok this confirms you haven’t understood what I’m claiming. If I gave a list of predictions that were my true 50% confidence interval, they would look very similar to common wisdom because I’m not a superforecaster (unless I had private information about a topic, e.g. a prediction on my net worth at the end of the year or something). If I gave my true 50% confidence interval, I would be indifferent to which way I phrased it (in the same way that if I was to predict 10 coin tosses it doesn’t matter whether I predict ten heads, ten tails, or some mix of the two).
From what I can tell from your examples, the list of predictions you proposed sending to me would not have represented your true 50% confidence intervals each time—you could have sent me 5 things you are very confident will come true and 5 things you are very confident won’t come true. It’s possible to fake any given level of calibration in this way.
Thanks I appreciate that :) And I apologize if my comment about probability being weird came across as patronizing, it was meant to be a reflection on the difficulty I was having putting my model into words, not a comment on your understanding