List of previous prediction market projects

Link post

Here I try to cu­rate what is, to my knowl­edge, the most ex­ten­sive list of pre­vi­ous pre­dic­tion mar­ket pro­jects.

This is use­ful be­cause it pro­vides a refer­ence class to an­swer the ques­tion: “Why is our so­ciety in­ad­e­quate at build­ing func­tional fu­tures mar­kets for ba­si­cally any­thing be­yond equities, cur­ren­cies and com­modi­ties, de­spite the mas­sive benefits this would bring (see e.g. Ar­row et al., 2008)?”

In this vein, I aim to pri­mar­ily fo­cus on real-money pro­jects that might have scaled to some­thing like an in­sti­tu­tion­al­ised ex­change (and thus fo­cus less on play-money pro­jects, con­sult­ing com­pa­nies offer­ing a more nebolous “col­lec­tive in­tel­li­gence”, or fore­cast­ing plat­forms which are not ac­tu­ally mar­kets).

I post this spread­sheet pub­li­cly de­spite its in­com­plete­ness, as do­ing so is likely the best way to com­plete it.

Feed­back is very wel­come.

If you—yes you! -- are keen to help, the sin­gle most use­ful 15-30 min task would be to fur­ther re­search a cell in the column “Shut-down date and rea­son”, and com­ment with links/​find­ings.