List of pre­vi­ous pre­dic­tion mar­ket projects

Link post

Here I try to cur­ate what is, to my know­ledge, the most ex­tens­ive list of pre­vi­ous pre­dic­tion mar­ket pro­jects.

This is use­ful be­cause it provides a ref­er­ence class to an­swer the ques­tion: “Why is our so­ci­ety in­ad­equate at build­ing func­tional fu­tures mar­kets for ba­sic­ally any­thing bey­ond equit­ies, cur­ren­cies and com­mod­it­ies, des­pite the massive be­ne­fits this would bring (see e.g. Ar­row et al., 2008)?”

In this vein, I aim to primar­ily fo­cus on real-money pro­jects that might have scaled to some­thing like an in­sti­tu­tion­al­ised ex­change (and thus fo­cus less on play-money pro­jects, con­sult­ing com­pan­ies of­fer­ing a more ne­bol­ous “col­lect­ive in­tel­li­gence”, or fore­cast­ing plat­forms which are not ac­tu­ally mar­kets).

I post this spread­sheet pub­licly des­pite its in­com­plete­ness, as do­ing so is likely the best way to com­plete it.

Feed­back is very wel­come.

If you—yes you! -- are keen to help, the single most use­ful 15-30 min task would be to fur­ther re­search a cell in the column “Shut-down date and reason”, and com­ment with links/​find­ings.