RSS

Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of AGI

TagLast edit: 3 Jun 2021 23:24 UTC by habryka

The economic consequences of artificial general intelligence arise from their fundamentally new properties compared to the human brains currently driving the economy. Once such digital minds become generally intelligent enough to perform a wide range of economic functions, they are likely to bring radical changes, creating great wealth, but also displacing humans out of more and more types of job.

An important aspect of the question is that of economic growth. The invention of AGI or WBE could cause a sudden increase in growth by adding machine intelligence to the pool of human innovators. Machine intelligence could be much cheaper to produce, faster, and qualitatively smarter than human talent. A feedback loop from better machine intelligence technology, to more and better machine researchers, back to better machine intelligence technology could ensue.

Robin Hanson has written much about the economics of whole brain emulation. In his view, the unrestricted creation of additional uploads will cause a Malthusian scenario, where upload wages fall to subsistence levels. He sees the transition to whole brain emulation as a jump to a new “growth mode” with higher exponential growth rates, similar to the transitions to agriculture and industry.

In “The Future of Human Evolution”, Nick Bostrom argues that in an emulated-brain society with individuals living at subsistence levels, entities that possess a large set of features we care about – which he calls flamboyant displays, or culture in general – will be outcompeted by more efficient ones that lack inefficient humans’ cultural aspects. This will lead to elimination of all forms of being that we care about. He proposes that only a Singleton could ensure strict control in order to prevent the elimination of culture through outcompetition.

Others predict that growth will blow up even more suddenly (up to the point where physical limits become relevant), and that growth will be concentrated in a smaller and more coherent set of agents, so that instead of continued free market competition, we will see a singleton emerge.

Blog posts

External links

See also

[Question] What Other Lines of Work are Safe from AI Au­toma­tion?

RogerDearnaley11 Jul 2024 10:01 UTC
35 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Some­thing Un­fath­omable: Unal­igned Hu­man­ity and how we’re rac­ing against death with death

Yuli_Ban27 Feb 2023 11:37 UTC
13 points
14 comments19 min readLW link

“Hereti­cal Thoughts on AI” by Eli Dourado

DragonGod19 Jan 2023 16:11 UTC
146 points
38 comments3 min readLW link
(www.elidourado.com)

Rogue AGI Em­bod­ies Valuable In­tel­lec­tual Property

3 Jun 2021 20:37 UTC
71 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Dragon Ball’s Hyper­bolic Time Chamber

gwern2 Sep 2012 23:49 UTC
50 points
65 comments1 min readLW link

What would a post la­bor econ­omy *ac­tu­ally* look like?

Ansh Juneja16 Mar 2025 20:38 UTC
2 points
2 comments17 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing tra­di­tional eco­nomic think­ing to AGI: a trilemma

Steven Byrnes13 Jan 2025 1:23 UTC
152 points
32 comments3 min readLW link

Four ways learn­ing Econ makes peo­ple dumber re: fu­ture AI

Steven Byrnes21 Aug 2025 17:52 UTC
294 points
35 comments6 min readLW link
(x.com)

New WBE implementation

Louie30 Nov 2012 11:16 UTC
27 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Hedg­ing our Bets: The Case for Pur­su­ing Whole Brain Emu­la­tion to Safe­guard Hu­man­ity’s Future

inklesspen1 Mar 2010 2:32 UTC
14 points
248 comments3 min readLW link

Thriv­ing in the Weird Times: Prepar­ing for the 100X Economy

8 May 2023 13:44 UTC
23 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

How quickly could robots scale up?

Benjamin_Todd12 Jan 2025 17:01 UTC
47 points
25 comments1 min readLW link
(benjamintodd.substack.com)

AI art isn’t “about to shake things up”. It’s already here.

Davis_Kingsley22 Aug 2022 11:17 UTC
65 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Eco­nomic Post-ASI Transition

Joel Burget1 Jan 2025 22:37 UTC
19 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The Overem­ployed Via ChatGPT

Zvi18 Apr 2023 13:40 UTC
58 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[link] Whole Brain Emu­la­tion and the Evolu­tion of Superorganisms

Wei Dai3 May 2011 23:38 UTC
26 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

In­ter­mit­tent Distil­la­tions #4: Semi­con­duc­tors, Eco­nomics, In­tel­li­gence, and Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress.

Mark Xu8 Jul 2021 22:14 UTC
81 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

What About The Horses?

Maxwell Tabarrok11 Feb 2025 13:59 UTC
15 points
17 comments7 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: Look­ing At Progress On C. elgans

jefftk29 Oct 2011 15:21 UTC
60 points
85 comments2 min readLW link

Mod­ify­ing Jones’ “AI Dilemma” Model

harsimony4 Mar 2024 21:55 UTC
7 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(splittinginfinity.substack.com)

Chad Jones pa­per mod­el­ing AI and x-risk vs. growth

jasoncrawford26 Apr 2023 20:07 UTC
39 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(web.stanford.edu)

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s GWP model and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

Tom Davidson19 Jul 2021 22:59 UTC
32 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

AI Sum­mer Harvest

Cleo Nardo4 Apr 2023 3:35 UTC
130 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

The Solow-Swan model of eco­nomic growth

Matthew Barnett29 Aug 2021 18:55 UTC
31 points
6 comments11 min readLW link

The Great Data In­te­gra­tion Schlep

sarahconstantin13 Sep 2024 15:40 UTC
276 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(sarahconstantin.substack.com)

AI Timelines via Cu­mu­la­tive Op­ti­miza­tion Power: Less Long, More Short

jacob_cannell6 Oct 2022 0:21 UTC
138 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

The im­pact of whole brain emulation

jefftk14 May 2013 19:59 UTC
4 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­ces­sive AI growth-rate yields lit­tle so­cio-eco­nomic benefit.

Cleo Nardo4 Apr 2023 19:13 UTC
27 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

Wel­come to the decade of Em

Ozyrus10 Apr 2023 7:45 UTC
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

AGI Will Not Make La­bor Worthless

Maxwell Tabarrok12 Jan 2025 15:09 UTC
−7 points
16 comments5 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

The two-tiered society

Roman Leventov13 May 2024 7:53 UTC
5 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence via whole brain emulation

AlexMennen17 Aug 2016 4:11 UTC
15 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

Ar­gu­ment against 20% GDP growth from AI within 10 years [Linkpost]

aog12 Sep 2022 4:08 UTC
59 points
20 comments5 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

Cap­i­tal Own­er­ship Will Not Prevent Hu­man Disempowerment

beren5 Jan 2025 6:00 UTC
152 points
19 comments14 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion & DL: imi­ta­tion learn­ing for faster AGI?

gwern22 Oct 2018 15:07 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.reddit.com)

Adam Smith Meets AI Doomers

James_Miller31 Jan 2024 15:53 UTC
35 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

By de­fault, cap­i­tal will mat­ter more than ever af­ter AGI

L Rudolf L28 Dec 2024 17:52 UTC
304 points
105 comments16 min readLW link
(nosetgauge.substack.com)

AGI de­ploy­ment as an act of aggression

dr_s5 Apr 2023 6:39 UTC
28 points
30 comments13 min readLW link

AI could cause a drop in GDP, even if mar­kets are com­pet­i­tive and efficient

Casey Barkan10 Apr 2025 22:35 UTC
29 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

De­sign­ing Hu­man-Like Con­scious­ness for AGI

Yu Tian18 Jun 2025 9:47 UTC
1 point
0 comments17 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing AI World Models w/​ Chris Canal

jacobhaimes27 Jan 2025 16:32 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(kairos.fm)

s/​acc: Safe Ac­cel­er­a­tionism Manifesto

lorepieri19 Dec 2023 22:19 UTC
−4 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(lorenzopieri.com)

Dario Amodei — Machines of Lov­ing Grace

Matrice Jacobine11 Oct 2024 21:43 UTC
63 points
26 comments1 min readLW link
(darioamodei.com)

The benev­olence of the butcher

dr_s8 Apr 2023 16:29 UTC
86 points
33 comments6 min readLW link1 review

After Over­mor­row: Scat­tered Mus­ings on the Im­me­di­ate Post-AGI World

Yuli_Ban24 Feb 2024 15:49 UTC
−3 points
0 comments26 min readLW link

La­bor Par­ti­ci­pa­tion is an Align­ment Risk

alex25 Jun 2024 14:15 UTC
−5 points
2 comments17 min readLW link

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

10 Jan 2023 16:06 UTC
119 points
45 comments26 min readLW link

Job Board (28 March 2033)

dr_s28 Mar 2023 22:44 UTC
20 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Con­sider buy­ing vot­ing shares

Hruss25 May 2025 18:01 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Model­ing AI-driven oc­cu­pa­tional change over the next 10 years and beyond

2120eth12 Nov 2024 4:58 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

The In­finite Choice Bar­rier: Why Al­gorith­mic AGI Is Math­e­mat­i­cally Im­pos­si­ble

ICBMaxMS1 Jun 2025 16:12 UTC
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

Le­gal Per­son­hood for Models: Novelli et. al & Mocanu

Stephen Martin1 Jun 2025 8:18 UTC
2 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

“The Sin­gu­lar­ity Is Nearer” by Ray Kurzweil—Review

Lavender8 Jul 2024 21:32 UTC
22 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

🔥 Treaty of Grid and Flame

AlbertMarashi12 Jul 2025 5:26 UTC
1 point
0 comments21 min readLW link

Bernie San­ders (I-VT) men­tions AI loss of con­trol risk in Giz­modo interview

Matrice Jacobine14 Jul 2025 14:47 UTC
42 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(gizmodo.com)

2. AIs as Eco­nomic Agents

RogerDearnaley23 Nov 2023 7:07 UTC
9 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Will peo­ple be mo­ti­vated to learn difficult dis­ci­plines and skills with­out eco­nomic in­cen­tive?

Roman Leventov20 Mar 2023 9:26 UTC
18 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

The In­tel­li­gence Curse

lukedrago3 Jan 2025 19:07 UTC
138 points
27 comments18 min readLW link
(lukedrago.substack.com)

Brain­storm­ing: Slow Takeoff

David Piepgrass23 Jan 2024 6:58 UTC
3 points
0 comments51 min readLW link

Why Swiss watches and Tay­lor Swift are AGI-proof

Kevin Kohler5 Sep 2024 13:23 UTC
18 points
11 comments6 min readLW link
(machinocene.substack.com)

Are healthy choices effec­tive for im­prov­ing live ex­pec­tancy any­more?

Christopher King8 May 2023 21:25 UTC
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

What work­ing on AI safety taught me about B2B SaaS sales

purple fire4 Feb 2025 20:50 UTC
7 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

What you re­ally mean when you claim to sup­port “UBI for job au­toma­tion”

Deric Cheng13 May 2024 8:52 UTC
17 points
15 comments10 min readLW link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

10 Jan 2023 16:03 UTC
24 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Cross­post] Strate­gic wealth ac­cu­mu­la­tion un­der trans­for­ma­tive AI expectations

25 Feb 2025 21:50 UTC
5 points
0 comments17 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

How Busi­ness Solved (?) the Hu­man Align­ment Problem

Gianluca Calcagni31 Dec 2024 20:39 UTC
−2 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

Phase tran­si­tions and AGI

17 Mar 2022 17:22 UTC
45 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Trans­for­ma­tive AI is a pro­cess

meijer19738 Jun 2023 8:57 UTC
2 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Post AGI effect prediction

Juliezhanggg1 Feb 2025 21:16 UTC
1 point
0 comments7 min readLW link

Tak­ing Abun­dance Seriously

eeeee24 Jul 2025 9:36 UTC
42 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

WFGY: A Self-Heal­ing Rea­son­ing Frame­work for LLMs — Open for Tech­ni­cal Scrutiny

onestardao18 Jul 2025 2:56 UTC
1 point
1 comment2 min readLW link

A Tax­on­omy of Jobs Deeply Re­sis­tant to TAI Automation

Deric Cheng18 Mar 2025 16:25 UTC
9 points
0 comments12 min readLW link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

The Era of the Switch

Aiphilosopher12 Jul 2025 7:11 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Why Job Dis­place­ment Pre­dic­tions are Wrong: Ex­pla­na­tions of Cog­ni­tive Automation

Moritz Wallawitsch30 May 2023 20:43 UTC
−4 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Will we ever run out of new jobs?

Kevin Kohler19 Aug 2024 15:04 UTC
17 points
7 comments7 min readLW link
(machinocene.substack.com)

Unal­igned AGI & Brief His­tory of Inequality

ank22 Feb 2025 16:26 UTC
−20 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

# Emo­tion Is Struc­ture: Toward Re­cur­sive Align­ment Through Hu­man–AI Co-Creation

thesignalthatcouldntbeheard3 Aug 2025 5:19 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Em­bod­i­ment is Indis­pens­able for AGI

P. G. Keerthana Gopalakrishnan7 Jun 2022 21:31 UTC
6 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(keerthanapg.com)

Forg­ing A New AGI So­cial Contract

Deric Cheng10 Apr 2025 13:41 UTC
23 points
3 comments7 min readLW link
(agisocialcontract.substack.com)

Most AI value will come from broad au­toma­tion, not from R&D

Matthew Barnett22 Apr 2025 3:22 UTC
10 points
6 comments2 min readLW link
(epoch.ai)

La­bor Par­ti­ci­pa­tion is a High-Pri­or­ity AI Align­ment Risk

alex17 Jun 2024 18:09 UTC
7 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Hu­man’s roles in a post AGI era

Juliezhanggg1 Feb 2025 21:16 UTC
1 point
0 comments7 min readLW link

Learn­ing (more) from horse em­ploy­ment history

Tim H23 May 2025 2:11 UTC
68 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Anti-au­toma­tion policy as a bot­tle­neck to eco­nomic growth

mhampton9 Apr 2025 20:12 UTC
4 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Things Look Bleak for White-Col­lar Jobs Due to AI Acceleration

Declan Molony17 Mar 2025 17:03 UTC
16 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

The Fu­ture Value of Money - a new definition

B Bret30 Dec 2024 21:01 UTC
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

AI Rights for Hu­man Safety

Simon Goldstein1 Aug 2024 23:01 UTC
55 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(papers.ssrn.com)

Se­quen­tial Co­her­ence: A Bot­tle­neck in Automation

19 Jul 2025 15:27 UTC
26 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

Con­fer­ence Re­port: Thresh­old 2030 - Model­ing AI Eco­nomic Futures

24 Feb 2025 18:56 UTC
52 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

Log-lin­ear Scal­ing is Worth the Cost due to Gains in Long-Hori­zon Tasks

shash427 Apr 2025 21:50 UTC
16 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

cy­ber­punk raccoons

bhauth28 Apr 2023 2:52 UTC
20 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(bhauth.com)

Lead, Own, Share: Sovereign Wealth Funds for Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Matrice Jacobine14 Jul 2025 9:34 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

Hydra

Matrice Jacobine11 Jun 2025 14:07 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(philosophybear.substack.com)

Univer­sal ba­sic in­come isn’t always AGI-proof

Kevin Kohler5 Sep 2024 15:39 UTC
5 points
3 comments7 min readLW link
(machinocene.substack.com)

Li­a­bil­ity for Mi­suse of Models—Dean Ball’s Proposal

Stephen Martin6 Jun 2025 5:34 UTC
2 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Hyper­bolic takeoff

Ege Erdil9 Apr 2022 15:57 UTC
18 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Keep­ing Cap­i­tal is the Challenge

LTM3 Feb 2025 2:04 UTC
13 points
2 comments17 min readLW link
(routecause.substack.com)
No comments.