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Fore­casts (Spe­cific Pre­dic­tions)

TagLast edit: 26 Aug 2020 20:12 UTC by Raemon

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Amandango22 Sep 2020 3:44 UTC
43 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
143 points
20 comments4 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] We are in an Al­gorith­mic Overhang

lsusr29 Sep 2021 23:40 UTC
31 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion of a thou­sand predictions

KatjaGrace12 Oct 2022 8:50 UTC
56 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

2010s Pre­dic­tions Review

Tofly30 Dec 2019 21:47 UTC
47 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
133 points
95 comments2 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing: One Year In

jsteinhardt4 Jul 2022 5:10 UTC
131 points
12 comments6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC
33 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

MaxTegmark8 Oct 2022 6:26 UTC
171 points
168 comments4 min readLW link

2020′s Pre­dic­tion Thread

bgold30 Dec 2019 23:18 UTC
48 points
78 comments1 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil: the results

Stuart_Armstrong16 Jan 2013 16:51 UTC
90 points
64 comments2 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tions Thread

MichaelVassar30 Dec 2009 21:39 UTC
32 points
454 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are we pre­dict­ing for Neu­ral­ink event?

Dr_Manhattan12 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
32 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Note­book for gen­er­at­ing fore­cast­ing bets

Amandango26 Sep 2020 20:36 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
38 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Cre­dence polls for 26 claims from the 2019 Review

jacobjacob9 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC
54 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Judg­ing Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions

Zvi23 Feb 2021 17:20 UTC
53 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my­self on SSC’s 2020 predictions

knite1 Mar 2021 19:55 UTC
15 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

Bucky7 Apr 2021 14:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonM27 Apr 2021 14:03 UTC
51 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel Kokotajlo6 Aug 2021 16:14 UTC
360 points
85 comments16 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: No Progress on C. el­gans After 10 Years

niconiconi1 Oct 2021 21:44 UTC
185 points
77 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing progress in lan­guage models

28 Oct 2021 20:40 UTC
54 points
5 comments11 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

There Meat Come A Scan­dal...

NicholasKross7 Nov 2021 20:52 UTC
31 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.thinkingmuchbetter.com)

Mea­sur­ing and Fore­cast­ing Risks from AI

jsteinhardt12 Nov 2021 2:30 UTC
24 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Covid Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets at Polymarket

Zvi2 Dec 2021 12:50 UTC
39 points
11 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

From Con­sid­er­a­tions to Probabilities

jsteinhardt31 Dec 2021 2:10 UTC
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2022)

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Jan 2022 19:49 UTC
13 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2022

ike2 Jan 2022 6:34 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonM2 Jan 2022 11:55 UTC
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

The IHME Report

Zvi10 Jan 2022 15:50 UTC
44 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Poly­mar­ket Covid-19 1/​17/​2022

Zvi17 Jan 2022 16:10 UTC
38 points
6 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Eval­u­at­ing 2021 ACX Predictions

Zvi25 Jan 2022 18:30 UTC
34 points
11 comments22 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2022 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi1 Feb 2022 20:30 UTC
30 points
2 comments18 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine Post #1: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Zvi28 Feb 2022 19:20 UTC
67 points
1 comment16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam Marks6 Mar 2022 6:24 UTC
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilan10 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Pre­dict­ing the Elec­tions with Deep Learn­ing—Part 1 - Results

Quentin Chenevier14 May 2022 12:54 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Is AI Progress Im­pos­si­ble To Pre­dict?

alyssavance15 May 2022 18:30 UTC
276 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing two tasks in Gary Mar­cus’s AGI challenge

Bill Benzon9 Jun 2022 18:31 UTC
10 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Kol­mogorov’s AI Forecast

interstice10 Jun 2022 2:36 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Fu­sion Power

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Jun 2022 0:04 UTC
18 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Link-post] On Defer­ence and Yud­kowsky’s AI Risk Estimates

bmg19 Jun 2022 17:25 UTC
27 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Solv­ing Quan­ti­ta­tive Rea­son­ing Prob­lems with Lan­guage Models

Yitz30 Jun 2022 18:58 UTC
76 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(storage.googleapis.com)

Fore­cast­ing ML Bench­marks in 2023

jsteinhardt18 Jul 2022 2:50 UTC
36 points
19 comments12 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Per­sonal fore­cast­ing ret­ro­spec­tive: 2020-2022

elifland21 Jul 2022 0:07 UTC
31 points
3 comments8 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Man­i­fold x CSPI $25k Fore­cast­ing Tournament

David Chee9 Aug 2022 21:13 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.cspicenter.com)

Short story spec­u­lat­ing on pos­si­ble ram­ifi­ca­tions of AI on the art world

Yitz1 Sep 2022 21:15 UTC
29 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(archiveofourown.org)

Alex Lawsen On Fore­cast­ing AI Progress

Michaël Trazzi6 Sep 2022 9:32 UTC
18 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(theinsideview.ai)

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
44 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

AGI by 2050 prob­a­bil­ity less than 1%

fumin1 Oct 2022 19:45 UTC
−10 points
4 comments9 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

AI Re­search Pro­gram Pre­dic­tion Markets

tailcalled20 Oct 2022 13:42 UTC
37 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Sig­nals of war in Au­gust 2021

yieldthought26 Oct 2022 8:11 UTC
66 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Es­ti­mat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity that FTX Fu­ture Fund grant money gets clawed back

spencerg14 Nov 2022 3:33 UTC
28 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­search Ideas

Jsevillamol17 Nov 2022 17:37 UTC
21 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

A Ten­ta­tive Timeline of The Near Fu­ture (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability

Yitz5 Dec 2022 5:33 UTC
26 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
21 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
44 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
18 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Pre­dic­tion is hard, es­pe­cially of medicine

gwern23 Dec 2011 20:34 UTC
72 points
48 comments23 min readLW link

Bet Pay­off 1: OpenPhil/​MIRI Grant Increase

Ben Pace9 Nov 2017 18:31 UTC
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Isaac Asi­mov’s pre­dic­tions for 2019 from 1984

Jan_Kulveit28 Dec 2018 9:51 UTC
36 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.thestar.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
50 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Con­test 2018

jbeshir30 Apr 2018 18:26 UTC
9 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

Vermillion14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
27 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet On Biden

sapphire17 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
38 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

My Bet Log

philh19 Mar 2020 21:10 UTC
16 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2008 4:45 UTC
15 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

1987 Sci-Fi Authors Time­cap­sule Pre­dic­tions For 2012

namespace28 Dec 2018 6:50 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(web.archive.org)

My Pre­dic­tions for 2018 (& a Tem­plate for Yours)

Zachary Jacobi2 Jan 2018 1:19 UTC
8 points
9 comments14 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2012)

gwern1 Jan 2012 9:35 UTC
27 points
340 comments1 min readLW link

Evolu­tion and fit­ness vs self-aware­ness and memetics

FractalParrot29 Nov 2020 21:07 UTC
3 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Can we model tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as the phase tran­si­tion?

Just Learning26 Dec 2020 3:20 UTC
4 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphi5 Jan 2021 3:35 UTC
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Sin­gu­lar­ity&phase tran­si­tion-2. A pri­ori prob­a­bil­ity and ways to check.

Just Learning8 Feb 2021 2:21 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi27 Apr 2021 0:40 UTC
42 points
39 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Scor­ing My As­traZeneca Predictions

Erich_Grunewald6 Aug 2021 11:52 UTC
7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
8 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristiano26 Feb 2022 4:50 UTC
162 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

Omicron #16: Danger in China

Zvi14 Mar 2022 15:50 UTC
58 points
10 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How should Deep­Mind’s Chin­chilla re­vise our AI fore­casts?

strawberry calm15 Sep 2022 17:54 UTC
34 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC
28 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Rus­sia will do a nu­clear test

sanxiyn4 Oct 2022 14:59 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habryka12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC
44 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)