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Fore­casts (Spe­cific Pre­dic­tions)

TagLast edit: 26 Aug 2020 20:12 UTC by Raemon

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Amandango22 Sep 2020 3:44 UTC
43 points
39 comments2 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel Kokotajlo6 Aug 2021 16:14 UTC
504 points
154 comments16 min readLW link1 review

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
146 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Clar­ify­ing and pre­dict­ing AGI

Richard_Ngo4 May 2023 15:55 UTC
133 points
43 comments4 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] We are in an Al­gorith­mic Overhang

lsusr29 Sep 2021 23:40 UTC
31 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion of a thou­sand predictions

KatjaGrace12 Oct 2022 8:50 UTC
57 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

What will GPT-2030 look like?

jsteinhardt7 Jun 2023 23:40 UTC
184 points
43 comments23 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

Max Tegmark8 Oct 2022 6:26 UTC
164 points
169 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
134 points
98 comments2 min readLW link

Be­fore smart AI, there will be many mediocre or spe­cial­ized AIs

Lukas Finnveden26 May 2023 1:38 UTC
54 points
7 comments9 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing: One Year In

jsteinhardt4 Jul 2022 5:10 UTC
132 points
12 comments6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

2010s Pre­dic­tions Review

Tofly30 Dec 2019 21:47 UTC
47 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

My AI Pre­dic­tions 2023 − 2026

HunterJay16 Oct 2023 0:50 UTC
60 points
28 comments5 min readLW link

My views on “doom”

paulfchristiano27 Apr 2023 17:50 UTC
244 points
35 comments2 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Will GPT-5 be able to self-im­prove?

Nathan Helm-Burger29 Apr 2023 17:34 UTC
18 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

What 2025 looks like

Ruby1 May 2023 22:53 UTC
75 points
17 comments15 min readLW link

Rat­ing my AI Predictions

Robert_AIZI21 Dec 2023 14:07 UTC
22 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(aizi.substack.com)

Is it jus­tifi­able for non-ex­perts to have strong opinions about Gaza?

8 Jan 2024 17:31 UTC
23 points
12 comments30 min readLW link

2024 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Blind/​Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi9 Jan 2024 19:30 UTC
33 points
2 comments31 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Su­perfore­cast­ing the Ori­gins of the Covid-19 Pandemic

DanielFilan12 Mar 2024 19:01 UTC
62 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(goodjudgment.substack.com)

Scal­ing of AI train­ing runs will slow down af­ter GPT-5

Maxime Riché26 Apr 2024 16:05 UTC
40 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

A bet for Samo Burja

Nathan Helm-Burger5 Sep 2024 16:01 UTC
13 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

AI #72: Deny­ing the Future

Zvi11 Jul 2024 15:00 UTC
45 points
8 comments41 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2020′s Pre­dic­tion Thread

bgold30 Dec 2019 23:18 UTC
48 points
77 comments1 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil: the results

Stuart_Armstrong16 Jan 2013 16:51 UTC
97 points
64 comments2 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tions Thread

MichaelVassar30 Dec 2009 21:39 UTC
32 points
446 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Chris_Leong24 Mar 2023 19:43 UTC
29 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Man­i­fold: If okay AGI, why?

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Mar 2023 22:43 UTC
116 points
37 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

[Question] GJP on AGI

Suh_Prance_Alot3 Apr 2023 17:21 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Some of my pre­dictable up­dates on AI

Aaron_Scher23 Oct 2023 17:24 UTC
32 points
8 comments9 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: No Progress on C. el­e­gans After 10 Years

niconiconi1 Oct 2021 21:44 UTC
223 points
87 comments5 min readLW link2 reviews

Fore­cast­ing progress in lan­guage models

28 Oct 2021 20:40 UTC
62 points
6 comments11 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

There Meat Come A Scan­dal...

Nicholas / Heather Kross7 Nov 2021 20:52 UTC
31 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.thinkingmuchbetter.com)

Mea­sur­ing and Fore­cast­ing Risks from AI

jsteinhardt12 Nov 2021 2:30 UTC
24 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Covid Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets at Polymarket

Zvi2 Dec 2021 12:50 UTC
39 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

From Con­sid­er­a­tions to Probabilities

jsteinhardt31 Dec 2021 2:10 UTC
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2022)

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Jan 2022 19:49 UTC
13 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2022

ike2 Jan 2022 6:34 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonM2 Jan 2022 11:55 UTC
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

The IHME Report

Zvi10 Jan 2022 15:50 UTC
44 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Poly­mar­ket Covid-19 1/​17/​2022

Zvi17 Jan 2022 16:10 UTC
38 points
10 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Eval­u­at­ing 2021 ACX Predictions

Zvi25 Jan 2022 18:30 UTC
34 points
11 comments22 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2022 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi1 Feb 2022 20:30 UTC
30 points
2 comments18 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine Post #1: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Zvi28 Feb 2022 19:20 UTC
67 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam Marks6 Mar 2022 6:24 UTC
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilan10 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Pre­dict­ing the Elec­tions with Deep Learn­ing—Part 1 - Results

Quentin Chenevier14 May 2022 12:54 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Is AI Progress Im­pos­si­ble To Pre­dict?

alyssavance15 May 2022 18:30 UTC
277 points
39 comments2 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing two tasks in Gary Mar­cus’s AGI challenge

Bill Benzon9 Jun 2022 18:31 UTC
12 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Kol­mogorov’s AI Forecast

interstice10 Jun 2022 2:36 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Fu­sion Power

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Jun 2022 0:04 UTC
29 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Link-post] On Defer­ence and Yud­kowsky’s AI Risk Estimates

bmg19 Jun 2022 17:25 UTC
29 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Solv­ing Quan­ti­ta­tive Rea­son­ing Prob­lems with Lan­guage Models

Yitz30 Jun 2022 18:58 UTC
76 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(storage.googleapis.com)

Fore­cast­ing ML Bench­marks in 2023

jsteinhardt18 Jul 2022 2:50 UTC
36 points
20 comments12 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Per­sonal fore­cast­ing ret­ro­spec­tive: 2020-2022

elifland21 Jul 2022 0:07 UTC
35 points
3 comments8 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Man­i­fold x CSPI $25k Fore­cast­ing Tournament

David Chee9 Aug 2022 21:13 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.cspicenter.com)

Short story spec­u­lat­ing on pos­si­ble ram­ifi­ca­tions of AI on the art world

Yitz1 Sep 2022 21:15 UTC
30 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(archiveofourown.org)

Alex Lawsen On Fore­cast­ing AI Progress

Michaël Trazzi6 Sep 2022 9:32 UTC
18 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(theinsideview.ai)

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
44 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

AGI by 2050 prob­a­bil­ity less than 1%

fumin1 Oct 2022 19:45 UTC
−10 points
4 comments9 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

AI Re­search Pro­gram Pre­dic­tion Markets

tailcalled20 Oct 2022 13:42 UTC
38 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Sig­nals of war in Au­gust 2021

yieldthought26 Oct 2022 8:11 UTC
70 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Es­ti­mat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity that FTX Fu­ture Fund grant money gets clawed back

spencerg14 Nov 2022 3:33 UTC
28 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­search Ideas

Jsevillamol17 Nov 2022 17:37 UTC
21 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

A Ten­ta­tive Timeline of The Near Fu­ture (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability

Yitz5 Dec 2022 5:33 UTC
26 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Ad Fraud De­tec­tion Pre­dic­tion Market

jefftk17 Jan 2023 18:10 UTC
17 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Thoughts on hard­ware /​ com­pute re­quire­ments for AGI

Steven Byrnes24 Jan 2023 14:03 UTC
52 points
30 comments24 min readLW link

Do IQ tests mea­sure in­tel­li­gence? - A pre­dic­tion mar­ket on my fu­ture be­liefs about the topic

tailcalled4 Feb 2023 11:19 UTC
1 point
10 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Eval­u­at­ing 2022 ACX Predictions

Zvi14 Feb 2023 12:20 UTC
20 points
3 comments23 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2023 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi17 Feb 2023 13:10 UTC
25 points
3 comments20 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dic­tion Thread: Make Pre­dic­tions About How Differ­ent Fac­tors Affect AGI X-Risk.

MrThink27 Feb 2023 19:15 UTC
15 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Re­sults Pre­dic­tion Thread About How Differ­ent Fac­tors Affect AI X-Risk

MrThink2 Mar 2023 22:13 UTC
9 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Author­i­tar­ian and Sovereign Power uses of Large Lan­guage Models

K. Liam Smith14 Mar 2023 8:44 UTC
7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(taboo.substack.com)

How well did Man­i­fold pre­dict GPT-4?

David Chee15 Mar 2023 23:19 UTC
49 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

GPT-4 solves Gary Mar­cus-in­duced flubs

JakubK17 Mar 2023 6:40 UTC
56 points
29 comments2 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Ret­ro­spec­tive on ‘GPT-4 Pre­dic­tions’ After the Re­lease of GPT-4

Stephen McAleese17 Mar 2023 18:34 UTC
23 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

I bet $500 on AI win­ning the IMO gold medal by 2026

azsantosk11 May 2023 14:46 UTC
37 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in “Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N perfor­mance”

Lukas Finnveden30 May 2023 18:33 UTC
55 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Yud­kowsky vs Han­son on FOOM: Whose Pre­dic­tions Were Bet­ter?

1a3orn1 Jun 2023 19:36 UTC
134 points
73 comments24 min readLW link

[Question] What are we pre­dict­ing for Neu­ral­ink event?

Dr_Manhattan12 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
32 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Note­book for gen­er­at­ing fore­cast­ing bets

Amandango26 Sep 2020 20:36 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing: Two Years In

jsteinhardt19 Aug 2023 23:40 UTC
66 points
15 comments11 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
38 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Will early trans­for­ma­tive AIs pri­mar­ily use text? [Man­i­fold ques­tion]

Fabien Roger2 Oct 2023 15:05 UTC
16 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Su­perfore­cast­ing the premises in “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

Joe Carlsmith18 Oct 2023 20:23 UTC
31 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Cre­dence polls for 26 claims from the 2019 Review

jacobjacob9 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC
54 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Judg­ing Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions

Zvi23 Feb 2021 17:20 UTC
53 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my­self on SSC’s 2020 predictions

knite1 Mar 2021 19:55 UTC
15 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

Bucky7 Apr 2021 14:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonM27 Apr 2021 14:03 UTC
51 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Bet Pay­off 1: OpenPhil/​MIRI Grant Increase

Ben Pace9 Nov 2017 18:31 UTC
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If I adapted re­ciproc­ity.io for In­sta­gram, would you be more in­clined to use it?

Yoyo Y7 May 2023 16:54 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.reciprocity.io)

Isaac Asi­mov’s pre­dic­tions for 2019 from 1984

Jan_Kulveit28 Dec 2018 9:51 UTC
39 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.thestar.com)

Scor­ing My As­traZeneca Predictions

Erich_Grunewald6 Aug 2021 11:52 UTC
7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
50 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion is hard, es­pe­cially of medicine

gwern23 Dec 2011 20:34 UTC
72 points
48 comments23 min readLW link

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Con­test 2018

jbeshir30 Apr 2018 18:26 UTC
9 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
24 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Do not miss the cut­off for im­mor­tal­ity! There is a prob­a­bil­ity that you will live for­ever as an im­mor­tal su­per­in­tel­li­gent be­ing and you can in­crease your odds by con­vinc­ing oth­ers to make achiev­ing the tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as quickly and safely as pos­si­ble the col­lec­tive goal/​pro­ject of all of hu­man­ity, Similar to “Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant.”

Oliver--Klozoff29 Jun 2023 3:45 UTC
1 point
0 comments28 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Pre­dic­tion] Hu­man­ity will sur­vive the next hun­dred years

lsusr25 Feb 2023 18:59 UTC
33 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

Non-loss of con­trol AGI-re­lated catas­tro­phes are out of con­trol too

12 Jun 2023 12:01 UTC
0 points
3 comments24 min readLW link

How should Deep­Mind’s Chin­chilla re­vise our AI fore­casts?

Cleo Nardo15 Sep 2022 17:54 UTC
35 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
8 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
18 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristiano26 Feb 2022 4:50 UTC
179 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

Vermillion14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
28 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC
28 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet On Biden

sapphire17 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
42 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

My Bet Log

philh19 Mar 2020 21:10 UTC
16 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2008 4:45 UTC
16 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

1987 Sci-Fi Authors Time­cap­sule Pre­dic­tions For 2012

namespace28 Dec 2018 6:50 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(web.archive.org)

My Pre­dic­tions for 2018 (& a Tem­plate for Yours)

Zachary Jacobi2 Jan 2018 1:19 UTC
8 points
9 comments14 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphi5 Jan 2021 3:35 UTC
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Con­tra Ace­moglu on AI

Maxwell Tabarrok28 Jun 2024 13:13 UTC
48 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
6 comments16 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2012)

gwern1 Jan 2012 9:35 UTC
27 points
340 comments1 min readLW link

Rus­sia will do a nu­clear test

sanxiyn4 Oct 2022 14:59 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
44 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Road to Proto-AGI 2024

Lucas Heinrich17 Oct 2023 17:37 UTC
−9 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Omicron #16: Danger in China

Zvi14 Mar 2022 15:50 UTC
58 points
10 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Can we model tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as the phase tran­si­tion?

Valentin202626 Dec 2020 3:20 UTC
4 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How does some­one prove that their gen­eral in­tel­li­gence is above av­er­age?

M. Y. Zuo16 Sep 2024 21:01 UTC
−3 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Sin­gu­lar­ity&phase tran­si­tion-2. A pri­ori prob­a­bil­ity and ways to check.

Valentin20268 Feb 2021 2:21 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

An AI Man­hat­tan Pro­ject is Not Inevitable

Maxwell Tabarrok6 Jul 2024 16:42 UTC
38 points
25 comments4 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Fore­casts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjustice5 Mar 2023 0:47 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(samotsvety.org)

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habryka12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC
44 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi27 Apr 2021 0:40 UTC
42 points
39 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Su­per­in­tel­li­gent AI is pos­si­ble in the 2020s

HunterJay13 Aug 2024 6:03 UTC
41 points
3 comments12 min readLW link
No comments.