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Forecasts (Specific Predictions) Tag Last edit: 26 Aug 2020 20:12 UTC by Raemon Forecasts (Specific Predictions) . This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction . Related: Betting .
Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent
Relevant New Old 3 Apr 2025 16:23 UTC 658 points
41 min read LW link (ai-2027.com)
22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC 135 points
2 min read LW link 10 Apr 2025 23:10 UTC 35 points
18 min read LW link (ai-2027.com)
Zvi 8 Apr 2025 12:50 UTC 111 points
30 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 2 Dec 2021 12:50 UTC 39 points
7 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
jefftk 17 Jan 2023 18:10 UTC 17 points
2 min read LW link (www.jefftk.com)
Zvi 14 Feb 2023 12:20 UTC 20 points
23 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 17 Feb 2023 13:10 UTC 25 points
20 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
17 Mar 2025 14:47 UTC 40 points
3 min read LW link (www.forethought.org)
Zvi 9 Jan 2024 19:30 UTC 33 points
31 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 28 Feb 2022 19:20 UTC 67 points
16 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
titotal 14 Apr 2025 13:14 UTC 22 points
29 min read LW link (titotal.substack.com)
fumin 1 Oct 2022 19:45 UTC −10 points
9 min read LW link (docs.google.com)
Zvi 10 Jan 2022 15:50 UTC 44 points
7 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
ike 2 Jan 2022 6:34 UTC 13 points
1 min read LW link (misinfounderload.substack.com)
Yitz 30 Jun 2022 18:58 UTC 76 points
2 min read LW link (storage.googleapis.com)
Yitz 1 Sep 2022 21:15 UTC 30 points
3 min read LW link (archiveofourown.org)
bmg 19 Jun 2022 17:25 UTC 29 points
1 min read LW link Zvi 1 Feb 2022 20:30 UTC 30 points
18 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
8 Jan 2024 17:31 UTC 23 points
30 min read LW link 28 Oct 2021 20:40 UTC 62 points
12 min read LW link (www.metaculus.com)
Zvi 23 Feb 2021 17:20 UTC 53 points
10 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
JakubK 17 Mar 2023 6:40 UTC 56 points
2 min read LW link (docs.google.com)
Zvi 25 Jan 2022 18:30 UTC 34 points
22 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 11 Jul 2024 15:00 UTC 45 points
41 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 17 Jan 2022 16:10 UTC 38 points
9 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 27 Apr 2021 0:40 UTC 42 points
12 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
15 Jan 2025 0:16 UTC 55 points
1 min read LW link Yoyo Y 7 May 2023 16:54 UTC 1 point
1 min read LW link (www.reciprocity.io)
8 May 2025 9:56 UTC 22 points
1 min read LW link habryka 12 Sep 2020 6:38 UTC 44 points
1 min read LW link (www.openphilanthropy.org)
philh 19 Mar 2020 21:10 UTC 16 points
2 min read LW link (reasonableapproximation.net)
25 Feb 2025 21:50 UTC 5 points
17 min read LW link (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
Zvi 14 Mar 2022 15:50 UTC 58 points
4 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi 18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC 37 points
4 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
30 Dec 2024 6:20 UTC 10 points
2 min read LW link (aisafety.info)
Amandango 28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC 44 points
2 min read LW link (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC 28 points
2 min read LW link Annapurna 29 Dec 2024 14:53 UTC 10 points
6 min read LW link (jorgevelez.substack.com)
12 Jun 2023 12:01 UTC 2 points
24 min read LW link 16 Feb 2025 21:02 UTC −3 points
23 min read LW link swante 27 Nov 2024 21:31 UTC 78 points
2 min read LW link (swantescholz.github.io)
22 May 2025 9:42 UTC 11 points
8 min read LW link (theaidigest.org)
LDJ 19 Mar 2025 23:36 UTC 20 points
2 min read LW link Back to top