RSS

Fore­casts (Spe­cific Pre­dic­tions)

TagLast edit: 26 Aug 2020 20:12 UTC by Raemon

Fore­casts (Spe­cific Pre­dic­tions). This tag is for spe­cific pre­dic­tions about un­known facts or fu­ture events. Dis­cus­sion of the prac­tice of mak­ing fore­casts can be found in Fore­cast­ing and Pre­dic­tion. Re­lated: Bet­ting.

Above all, don’t ask what to be­lieve—ask what to an­ti­ci­pate. Every ques­tion of be­lief should flow from a ques­tion of an­ti­ci­pa­tion, and that ques­tion of an­ti­ci­pa­tion should be the cen­ter of the in­quiry. – Mak­ing Beliefs Pay Rent

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Amandango22 Sep 2020 3:44 UTC
44 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
127 points
17 comments4 min readLW link

2010s Pre­dic­tions Review

Tofly30 Dec 2019 21:47 UTC
52 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
112 points
87 comments2 min readLW link

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

2020′s Pre­dic­tion Thread

bgold30 Dec 2019 23:18 UTC
50 points
78 comments1 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil: the results

Stuart_Armstrong16 Jan 2013 16:51 UTC
68 points
64 comments2 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tions Thread

MichaelVassar30 Dec 2009 21:39 UTC
28 points
455 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Pre­dic­tions for Neu­ral­ink’s Fri­day Announcement

Michaël Trazzi26 Aug 2020 6:33 UTC
18 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are we pre­dict­ing for Neu­ral­ink event?

Dr_Manhattan12 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
33 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Note­book for gen­er­at­ing fore­cast­ing bets

Amandango26 Sep 2020 20:36 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
22 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
42 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
49 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Pre­dic­tion is hard, es­pe­cially of medicine

gwern23 Dec 2011 20:34 UTC
48 points
48 comments23 min readLW link

Bet Pay­off 1: OpenPhil/​MIRI Grant Increase

Ben Pace9 Nov 2017 18:31 UTC
40 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Isaac Asi­mov’s pre­dic­tions for 2019 from 1984

Jan_Kulveit28 Dec 2018 9:51 UTC
37 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.thestar.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
89 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
36 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Con­test 2018

jbeshir30 Apr 2018 18:26 UTC
25 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

VermillionStuka14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
16 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
No comments.