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Fore­casts (Spe­cific Pre­dic­tions)

TagLast edit: 26 Aug 2020 20:12 UTC by Raemon

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Amandango22 Sep 2020 3:44 UTC
42 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
137 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] We are in an Al­gorith­mic Overhang

lsusr29 Sep 2021 23:40 UTC
29 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

2010s Pre­dic­tions Review

Tofly30 Dec 2019 21:47 UTC
47 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

22 Aug 2020 2:33 UTC
117 points
90 comments2 min readLW link

2020′s Pre­dic­tion Thread

bgold30 Dec 2019 23:18 UTC
48 points
78 comments1 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil: the results

Stuart_Armstrong16 Jan 2013 16:51 UTC
89 points
64 comments2 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tions Thread

MichaelVassar30 Dec 2009 21:39 UTC
32 points
455 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are we pre­dict­ing for Neu­ral­ink event?

Dr_Manhattan12 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
32 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Note­book for gen­er­at­ing fore­cast­ing bets

Amandango26 Sep 2020 20:36 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
36 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Cre­dence polls for 26 claims from the 2019 Review

jacobjacob9 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC
54 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Judg­ing Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions

Zvi23 Feb 2021 17:20 UTC
53 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my­self on SSC’s 2020 predictions

knite1 Mar 2021 19:55 UTC
15 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

Bucky7 Apr 2021 14:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonM27 Apr 2021 14:03 UTC
44 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel Kokotajlo6 Aug 2021 16:14 UTC
242 points
56 comments16 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: No Progress on C. el­gans After 10 Years

niconiconi1 Oct 2021 21:44 UTC
174 points
67 comments5 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
21 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
44 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwell23 Feb 2018 11:25 UTC
18 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Pre­dic­tion is hard, es­pe­cially of medicine

gwern23 Dec 2011 20:34 UTC
71 points
48 comments23 min readLW link

Bet Pay­off 1: OpenPhil/​MIRI Grant Increase

Ben Pace9 Nov 2017 18:31 UTC
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Isaac Asi­mov’s pre­dic­tions for 2019 from 1984

Jan_Kulveit28 Dec 2018 9:51 UTC
36 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.thestar.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
50 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Con­test 2018

jbeshir30 Apr 2018 18:26 UTC
9 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

VermillionStuka14 Oct 2020 23:31 UTC
27 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet On Biden

deluks91717 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
38 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

My Bet Log

philh19 Mar 2020 21:10 UTC
16 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2008 4:45 UTC
15 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

1987 Sci-Fi Authors Time­cap­sule Pre­dic­tions For 2012

namespace28 Dec 2018 6:50 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(web.archive.org)

My Pre­dic­tions for 2018 (& a Tem­plate for Yours)

Zachary Jacobi2 Jan 2018 1:19 UTC
8 points
9 comments14 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2012)

gwern1 Jan 2012 9:35 UTC
27 points
340 comments1 min readLW link

Evolu­tion and fit­ness vs self-aware­ness and memetics

FractalParrot29 Nov 2020 21:07 UTC
3 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Can we model tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as the phase tran­si­tion?

Just Learning26 Dec 2020 3:20 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphi5 Jan 2021 3:35 UTC
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Sin­gu­lar­ity&phase tran­si­tion-2. A pri­ori prob­a­bil­ity and ways to check.

Just Learning8 Feb 2021 2:21 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi27 Apr 2021 0:40 UTC
42 points
39 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Scor­ing My As­traZeneca Predictions

Erich_Grunewald6 Aug 2021 11:52 UTC
7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
5 points
2 comments9 min readLW link
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