mabramov

Karma: 40

mabramov 23 May 2025 21:42 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: ryan_greenblatt’s comment on: ryan_greenblatt’s Shortform
This is a great post. Good eye for catching this and making the connections here. I think I expect to see more “cutting corners” like this though I’m not sure what to do about it since I don’t think internally it will feel like corners are being cut rather than necessary updates that are only obvious in hindsight.

Our bet on whether the AI market will crash

Remmelt and mabramov

8 May 2025 9:56 UTC

23 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

mabramov 8 May 2025 2:00 UTC
11 points
0
on: Who wants to bet me $25k at 1:7 odds that there won’t be an AI market crash in the next year?
Remmelt and I have made a bet at $5k:$25k odds on if there will be an AI market crash by the end of 2026 with a crash being designated if ²⁄₃ of the following criteria are met:
1. OpenAI 2025 or 2026 yearly revenue is below $1.6 billion.
2. Anthropic 2025 or 2026 yearly revenue is below $400 million.
3. Nvidia revenue for any quarter in the range of Q3 2025 to Q4 2026 under the ‘data center’ category (covering the same revenue items, even if renamed/moved to something else) is below $8.5 billion.
Source for the first two criteria will be public statements by the companies or by credible reporting. Nvidia data centre revenue will be as reported by Nvidia.
We will make a formal post on it shortly

mabramov 26 Apr 2025 3:28 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Remmelt’s comment on: Who wants to bet me $25k at 1:7 odds that there won’t be an AI market crash in the next year?
Remmelt, if you wish, I’m happy to operationalize a bet. I think you’re wrong.

mabramov 6 Dec 2023 16:12 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: Razied’s comment on: Why Yudkowsky is wrong about “covalently bonded equivalents of biology”
That doesn’t seem like the right analogy. The bonds are forced to fold over themselves because electrons repel each other and don’t want to touch. So the natural structures are mostly tetrahedral structures. Think of the vertices of a tetrahedron having edges that shoot towards and meet at the centre and you will see that these form 109° angles. When you imagine a bunch of these connected, you will see that they all start folding over themselves and will need to take up the same space which, is not possible because the electrons will repel. So you get distortions and all kinds of stuff to push them away and then it’s all complicated by a bunch of weak forces. The primary thing giving structure is this long string of covalent bonds.
Also, “forces in the lipid layer surrounding cells” are not proteins

mabramov 4 Nov 2020 21:13 UTC
11 points
0
on: Bet On Biden
I just made my account but I want to remind everyone that you cannot make inferences on how good your prediction (or how good of a bet this was) based on one data point (how this election turned out). If you want to dig deep into the odds that every state was given, you can start to make a case, but anyone with the gut reaction that since the election was close, this was a bad bet, are wrong.