New Year’s Prediction Thread (2012)

Go­ing through ex­piring pre­dic­tions re­minded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it’s time for LessWrong to make its be­liefs pay rent and give hostages to for­tune in mak­ing pre­dic­tions for events in 2012 and be­yond.

Suggested top­ics in­clude: Meth­ods of Ra­tion­al­ity up­dates (eg. “will there be any?”), eco­nomic bench­marks (price of gold has been an ed­u­ca­tional one for me this past year), med­i­cal ad­vances (but be care­ful not to be too op­ti­mistic!), per­sonal pre­com­mit­ments (sign­ing up for cry­on­ics?), be­ing cur­mud­geonly about self-im­prove­ment, mak­ing dar­ing pre­dic­tions about the fu­ture of AGI, and so on.

As be­fore, please be fairly spe­cific. I in­tend to put most pre­dic­tions on Pre­dic­tionBook.com and it’d be nice if they weren’t too hard to judge in the fu­ture.

(If you want ad­vice on mak­ing good pre­dic­tions, I’ve tried to write up a few use­ful heuris­tics I’ve learned. So far in the judg­ing pro­cess, I’ve done pretty well this year, al­though I’m a lit­tle an­noyed I got a Ye­men pre­dic­tion right but for the wrong rea­sons.)