Sharing a personal weird trick why not. I like falling asleep to light TV (via iPad). I watch short shows that a) I like and don’t think are boring b) I have seen before. Usually 10 minutes into a 20 min show I’m ready (Futurama is my favorite for this + my meme game is much improved by this)
Was thinking about you! Glad you made it out. Feel free to DM if I can be of assistance
MIRI is bottlenecked more on ideas worth pursuing and people who can pursue them, than on funding
Ideas come from (new) people, and you mentioned seed planting which should contribute to having such people in 4-6 years, seems like still a worthy thing to do for AGI if anything is worth doing for any cause at all (given your short timelines). If you agree what’s the bottleneck for that effort?
Related work: Show Your Work: Scratchpads for Intermediate Computation with Language Modelshttps://arxiv.org/abs/2112.00114(from very surface-level perusal) Prompting the model resulted in 1) Model outputting intermediate thinking “steps”
2) Capability gain
Koller & Friedman
They primarily & extensively statistical graphical models, not causality (but have a chapter on it)
Since comments get occluded you should refer to an edit/update somewhere at the top if you want it to be seen by those who already read your original comment.
Yes, I would! Any pointers? (to avoid miscommunication I’m reading this to say that people are more likely to build UFAI because of traumatizing environment vs. normal reasons Eli mentioned)
Wait, you can’t get N95 or KN95 there?
thought this was interesting
Sounds like vaguely-good conclusions from my pattern-matching experience but very poorly argued, with much overloading of “impatience” and many cherry picked examples. Surprisingly bad quality from you. Also, “patience” is a great virtue, context matters a lot.
Ok. To clarify, one of them is to blame. Maybe it’s not the CDC. History will tell.
Most obviously, blaming the CDC for the FDA and HHS not allowing 3rd party detection kits is somewhere between false and misleading.
Please support this claim. It seems obvious that they shat the bed (don’t know which agency, let god sort them out for now, history and FOIA requests will sort them out in the future). It seems obvious from reading the news that many many local and commercial labs would have been ready with capacity a lot sooner than they are if FDA/CDC/HHS conglomerate got out of the way sooner.
It’s quite plausible that this is due to Trump pressure, history will sort this out, but my estimation of guilt will likely just move from “weasel” to “weak for not resisting”, and the facts remain the same
Significant political regime disruption in some places, Iran specifically (probably for the better there)
Depending on how much Chinese government fudges with the current numbers they will appear to a) have bungled at first b) actually efficiently handled the problem at an enormous scale and US will appear to do things in the opposite order. Which leads me to...
Trump is weakened and Bloomberg’s position is going to look very strong: some actual history of crisis management, strong-man people feel comfortable with in times of uncertainty, plus he “owns” one of coutry’s top med schools
Massive disruption in service sector as people cut down on non-necessities…
This is useful in case you have facing a choice of riding it out at home and going to a hospital with high probability of getting infected if you’re not already. E.g. if you have fever chances are still high you’re just experiencing regular flu, and should not go to the hospital, but if your oxigen starts dropping into the danger zone you need to go.
Potential method of coping: disinfecting room. Unpack the stuff in protective gear, then after unpacked blast it with UV light?
But it’s possible we could even isolate there in the in-law unit.
I thought this was the pretty clear cut answer before you wrote it. Totally endorse. Wear masks on the flight if possible. Ask your parents to stock up or start sending prep packages there (Amazon, Costco delivers)
The first question for me is are people starving in Wuhan due to the outbreak?
Answer is no, as of now, though food situation is uncomfortable. (my wife has relatives there she’s in contact with). Trucks come to apartment complexes and people pick up.
I’m not sure the analogy translates well to US though. For better or worse us people are less organized. Also large % population live in suburbs where such deliveries are not feasible.
OTOH we have an excellent general delivery system in Amazon, UPS etc.
I’m slightly worried.
There’s some but not a lot of interest in this topic on LW; I have a mailing list with primarily rationalist types on the topic; PM me email address to be added
Data always says something unless it’s randomly generated. At the very least Chinese data provides lower bounds on some things. You can get somewhat better estimates if you model their incentives (though the lying will greatly increase the uncertainty and complexity of any model)