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Fi­nan­cial Investing

TagLast edit: 28 Jul 2020 1:20 UTC by Ruby

The Financial Investing tag covers concrete personal investment advice, specific investment opportunities (like Bitcoin), and analysis of existing financial investing practices, as well as broad analyses of things like the efficient market hypothesis.

Mar­kets are Anti-Inductive

Eliezer Yudkowsky26 Feb 2009 0:55 UTC
88 points
61 comments4 min readLW link

Debt is an Anti-investment

Jacob Falkovich5 Jul 2018 20:00 UTC
48 points
42 comments6 min readLW link

Re­view of “Life­cy­cle In­vest­ing”

JessRiedel12 Apr 2020 3:12 UTC
71 points
22 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] Tips/​tricks/​notes on op­ti­miz­ing investments

Wei Dai6 May 2020 23:21 UTC
83 points
67 comments1 min readLW link

A LessWrong Crypto Autopsy

Scott Alexander28 Jan 2018 9:01 UTC
216 points
129 comments4 min readLW link4 reviews

Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush?

Wei Dai19 Jul 2014 10:08 UTC
70 points
115 comments1 min readLW link

Risk-aver­sion and in­vest­ment (for al­tru­ists)

paulfchristiano28 Feb 2013 3:44 UTC
27 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

A Guide to Ra­tional Investing

ColbyDavis15 Sep 2014 2:36 UTC
56 points
45 comments29 min readLW link

A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance

cata2 Mar 2021 9:36 UTC
233 points
52 comments11 min readLW link

Get Rich Real Slowly

Jacob Falkovich10 Jun 2019 17:51 UTC
35 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Re­fac­tor­ing EMH – Thoughts fol­low­ing the lat­est mar­ket crash

Alex_Shleizer28 Feb 2020 15:53 UTC
33 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

My sim­ple AGI in­vest­ment & in­surance strategy

lc31 Mar 2024 2:51 UTC
127 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

Get Rich Slowly

Jacob Falkovich10 Feb 2017 23:02 UTC
18 points
1 comment13 min readLW link
(putanumonit.com)

Anti-EMH Ev­i­dence (and a plea for help)

Wei Dai5 Dec 2020 18:29 UTC
93 points
44 comments5 min readLW link

Chart­ing Is Mostly Superstition

gilch23 Aug 2020 20:26 UTC
33 points
18 comments7 min readLW link

Alpha α and Beta β

lsusr10 Oct 2020 6:27 UTC
9 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Zoom Tech­nolo­gies, Inc. vs. the Effi­cient Mar­kets Hypothesis

Zack_M_Davis11 May 2020 6:00 UTC
72 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

“The Holy Grail” of port­fo­lio management

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:25 UTC
51 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Redi­rect­ing one’s own taxes as an effec­tive al­tru­ism method

David Gross13 Nov 2023 15:17 UTC
2 points
34 comments16 min readLW link

[Question] What posts on fi­nance would your find helpful or in­ter­est­ing?

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:31 UTC
32 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

How to Lose a Fair Game

gilch14 Aug 2020 18:41 UTC
36 points
15 comments7 min readLW link

Dis­solv­ing the “Is the Effi­cient Mar­ket Hy­poth­e­sis Dead?” Question

Alexei2 Aug 2020 4:46 UTC
37 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

87,000 Hours or: Thoughts on Home Ownership

romeostevensit6 Jul 2019 8:01 UTC
20 points
50 comments8 min readLW link

Con­trar­ian LW views and their eco­nomic implications

Larks8 Oct 2014 23:48 UTC
30 points
126 comments1 min readLW link

Mak­ing money with Bit­coin?

Clippy16 Feb 2011 19:17 UTC
50 points
129 comments1 min readLW link

Worth check­ing your stock trad­ing skills

at_the_zoo8 Nov 2021 19:19 UTC
48 points
37 comments3 min readLW link

High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now

johnswentworth3 Jul 2020 20:16 UTC
83 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

How to (hope­fully eth­i­cally) make money off of AGI

6 Nov 2023 23:35 UTC
135 points
79 comments32 min readLW link

Post-crash mar­ket effi­ciency 1696-2020

bfinn22 May 2020 14:13 UTC
22 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Stock mar­ket hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinn30 Dec 2020 20:05 UTC
19 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

A No-Non­sense Guide to Early Retirement

tryactions24 Feb 2021 16:37 UTC
75 points
46 comments28 min readLW link

Chap­ter 4: The Effi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC
75 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

You Need More Money

gilch12 Aug 2020 6:16 UTC
55 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Money Stuff

Jacob Falkovich1 Nov 2021 16:08 UTC
103 points
18 comments7 min readLW link

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard Meadows15 May 2020 20:44 UTC
195 points
87 comments19 min readLW link

In Most Mar­kets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward

dawangy13 Aug 2021 17:32 UTC
33 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

The BTC equil­ibriu­mat­ing and the ETH one-eightening

Randomized, Controlled25 May 2021 21:32 UTC
22 points
7 comments13 min readLW link

Gen­eral Bit­coin dis­cus­sion thread (June 2011)

SilasBarta10 Jun 2011 23:21 UTC
6 points
104 comments1 min readLW link

MSP Ar­ti­cle Dis­cus­sion Meetup: The EMH, Long-Term In­vest­ing, and Lev­er­aged ETFs

25Hour27 Dec 2023 16:50 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] In­crease the tax value of dona­tions with high-var­i­ance in­vest­ments?

Brendan Long3 Mar 2024 1:39 UTC
20 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Which in­vest­ments for al­igned-AI out­comes?

tailcalled4 Jan 2024 13:28 UTC
8 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Does any­one know good es­says on how differ­ent AI timelines will af­fect as­set prices?

Tim Liptrot6 Mar 2024 4:21 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Re­tire­ment Ac­counts and Short Timelines

jefftk19 Feb 2024 18:50 UTC
83 points
35 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What Other Lines of Work are Safe from AI Au­toma­tion?

RogerDearnaley11 Jul 2024 10:01 UTC
28 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Less Wrong used to like Bit­coin be­fore it was cool. Time for a re­visit?

betterthanwell20 Jun 2012 13:40 UTC
26 points
72 comments1 min readLW link

Fi­nan­cial Effec­tive­ness Repository

Gunnar_Zarncke18 Nov 2014 9:57 UTC
7 points
62 comments1 min readLW link

Prepar­ing for a Ra­tional Fi­nan­cial Plan­ning Sequence

elharo22 May 2013 11:48 UTC
29 points
65 comments3 min readLW link

The Ra­tional In­vestor, Part I

wubbles30 May 2013 0:32 UTC
−2 points
29 comments3 min readLW link

The Fun­da­men­tal The­o­rem of As­set Pric­ing: Miss­ing Link of the Dutch Book Arguments

johnswentworth1 Jun 2019 20:34 UTC
42 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Why you should con­sider buy­ing Bit­coin right now (Jan 2015) if you have high risk tolerance

Ander13 Jan 2015 20:02 UTC
8 points
139 comments8 min readLW link

Gen­eral Bit­coin dis­cus­sion thread (May 2011)

Kaj_Sotala20 May 2011 14:03 UTC
9 points
50 comments1 min readLW link

Google lends fur­ther le­gi­t­i­macy to Bitcoin

SilasBarta21 Mar 2011 22:26 UTC
11 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

[LINKs] Bit­coin hits main­stream; in­tel­li­gent tech­ni­cal critique

SilasBarta19 May 2011 18:30 UTC
12 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] Two ar­ti­cles on Bitcoin

David_Gerard16 May 2011 14:36 UTC
8 points
63 comments1 min readLW link

Why is it ra­tio­nal to in­vest in re­tire­ment? I don’t get it.

diegocaleiro16 May 2013 1:28 UTC
28 points
114 comments1 min readLW link

The Ineffi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

lsusr24 Apr 2020 7:33 UTC
71 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

ESRogs’s Shortform

ESRogs29 Apr 2020 8:03 UTC
7 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Isn’t Tesla stock highly un­der­val­ued?

Liron18 May 2020 1:56 UTC
31 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

Run­ning the num­bers: Cryo vs Dis­count rate

RomeoStevens4 Jun 2014 7:54 UTC
9 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Ap­proval Ex­trac­tion Ad­ver­tised as Production

Benquo15 Dec 2019 14:51 UTC
82 points
39 comments19 min readLW link3 reviews
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Ra­tional re­tire­ment plans

Ik15 May 2023 17:49 UTC
5 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Ti­tan (the Wealth­front of ac­tive stock pick­ing) - What’s the catch?

Liron6 Aug 2020 1:06 UTC
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ment idea: bas­ket of tech stocks weighted to­wards AI

ioannes12 Aug 2020 21:30 UTC
19 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What is your fi­nan­cial port­fo­lio?

Algon28 Jun 2023 18:39 UTC
11 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Weird Things About Money

abramdemski3 Oct 2020 17:13 UTC
79 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

How to Price a Fu­tures Contract

lsusr9 Oct 2020 7:37 UTC
15 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to take ad­van­age of the mar­ket’s ir­ra­tional­ity re­gard­ing AGI?

GeneSmith16 Aug 2023 3:30 UTC
18 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Gen­er­al­ize Kelly to Ac­count for # Iter­a­tions?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
24 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

How should TurnTrout han­dle his Deep­Mind equity situ­a­tion?

16 Oct 2023 18:25 UTC
61 points
30 comments6 min readLW link

Thoughts on the $GME situation

Pranav Sharma28 Jan 2021 5:15 UTC
9 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

A new acausal trad­ing plat­form: RobinShould

Matthew Barnett1 Apr 2021 16:56 UTC
114 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Peo­ple Will Listen

sapphire11 Apr 2021 16:51 UTC
84 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Best em­piri­cal ev­i­dence on bet­ter than SP500 in­vest­ment re­turns?

bluefalcon25 Apr 2021 5:13 UTC
12 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Why quan­ti­ta­tive fi­nance is so hard

lsusr7 May 2021 19:29 UTC
43 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

The S&P 500 Will Drop Below 3029 Be­fore July 16 (65 per­cent con­fi­dence)

FCCC10 Oct 2021 4:02 UTC
9 points
36 comments9 min readLW link

Re­tail In­vestor Advantages

leogao7 Dec 2021 2:08 UTC
13 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Hedg­ing omicron im­pact to sup­ply chains

mukashi17 Jan 2022 18:49 UTC
29 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

You have to cre­ate your own per­sonal fi­nance system

Nicole Dieker23 Jan 2022 18:53 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Money-gen­er­at­ing en­vi­ron­ments vs. wealth-build­ing en­vi­ron­ments (or “my thoughts on the stock mar­ket”)

Nicole Dieker4 Feb 2022 17:37 UTC
7 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

My in­vest­ment pro­tects you. Your in­vest­ment pro­tects me.

Nicole Dieker9 Feb 2022 20:12 UTC
−7 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Ways to in­vest your wealth if you be­lieve in a high-var­i­ance fu­ture?

Alex_Altair11 Mar 2022 16:07 UTC
51 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

How Does The Fi­nance In­dus­try Gen­er­ate Real Eco­nomic Value?

johnswentworth1 Apr 2022 15:21 UTC
53 points
9 comments6 min readLW link

The Effi­cient LessWrong Hy­poth­e­sis—Stock In­vest­ing Competition

MrThink11 Apr 2022 20:43 UTC
30 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to bet against civ­i­liza­tional ad­e­quacy?

Wei Dai12 Aug 2022 23:33 UTC
54 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Semi-con­duc­tor/​AI Stock Dis­cus­sion.

sapphire25 Nov 2022 23:35 UTC
28 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Look­ing for ideas of pub­lic as­sets (stocks, funds, ETFs) that I can in­vest in to have a chance at prof­it­ing from the mass adop­tion and com­mer­cial­iza­tion of AI technology

Annapurna7 Dec 2022 22:35 UTC
15 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for a World Trans­formed by AI

PeterMcCluskey1 Jan 2023 2:47 UTC
67 points
19 comments6 min readLW link
(bayesianinvestor.com)

On AI and In­ter­est Rates

Zvi17 Jan 2023 15:00 UTC
79 points
13 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Eth­i­cal and in­cen­tive-com­pat­i­ble way to share fi­nances with part­ner when you both work?

Chad Nauseam28 Feb 2023 18:28 UTC
14 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(www.reddit.com)

On the Cri­sis at Sili­con Valley Bank

Zvi16 Mar 2023 15:50 UTC
59 points
9 comments41 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Eth­i­cal AI in­vest­ments?

Justin wilson17 Mar 2023 17:43 UTC
24 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Notes on Frugality

David Gross5 Feb 2021 16:54 UTC
15 points
3 comments12 min readLW link

Eth2 Stak­ing ex­plained as a Fi­nan­cial Instrument

Annapurna2 Dec 2020 3:33 UTC
18 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are in­dex funds still a good in­vest­ment?

Kaj_Sotala2 Dec 2020 21:31 UTC
38 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] AI Win­ter Is Com­ing—How to profit from it?

maximkazhenkov5 Dec 2020 20:23 UTC
15 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What trade should we make if we’re all get­ting the new COVID strain?

Jacob Falkovich25 Dec 2020 7:09 UTC
79 points
73 comments1 min readLW link

Books Wor­thy of Integration

Roven Skyfal20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

The GameS­top Si­tu­a­tion: Sim­plified

Annapurna29 Jan 2021 17:55 UTC
55 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Rea­son­able ways for an av­er­age LW re­tail in­vestor to get up­side risk?

Randomized, Controlled16 Feb 2021 19:44 UTC
21 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

Mar­ket Misconceptions

gilch20 Aug 2020 4:46 UTC
27 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Case Story: Lack of Con­sumer Pro­tec­tion Pro­ce­dures AI Ma­nipu­la­tion and the Threat of Fund Con­cen­tra­tion in Crypto Seek­ing As­sis­tance to Fund a Civil Case to Estab­lish Facts and Pro­tect Vuln­er­a­ble Con­sumers from Da­m­age Caused by Au­to­mated Sys­tems

Petr Andreev8 Aug 2024 5:55 UTC
−9 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

What is the VIX?

Annapurna26 Feb 2021 1:05 UTC
21 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

“New­ton’s laws” of finance

pchvykov21 Jun 2024 9:41 UTC
9 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

A Primer on United States Treasuries

Annapurna10 Mar 2021 3:08 UTC
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Ex­ploit­ing Crypto Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Fun and Profit

Srdjan Miletic13 Mar 2021 2:31 UTC
31 points
25 comments5 min readLW link

The EMH is False—Spe­cific Strong Evidence

sapphire18 Mar 2021 18:38 UTC
62 points
83 comments6 min readLW link

“Liquidity” vs “solvency” in bank runs (and some notes on Sili­con Valley Bank)

rossry12 Mar 2023 9:16 UTC
107 points
27 comments12 min readLW link

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

10 Jan 2023 16:06 UTC
117 points
44 comments26 min readLW link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

10 Jan 2023 16:03 UTC
23 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Will the Bit­coin fee mar­ket ac­tu­ally work?

TropicalFruit11 Mar 2023 0:02 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­ce­du­ral Knowl­edge Gaps

Alicorn8 Feb 2011 3:17 UTC
196 points
1,495 comments1 min readLW link

Max­i­miz­ing Yield on US Dol­lar Pegged Coins

Annapurna8 Jun 2021 1:12 UTC
15 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Coron­avirus crash vs history

bfinn14 Jun 2021 10:55 UTC
39 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An In­tro­duc­tion to Pre­dic­tion Markets

Annapurna14 Jun 2021 16:43 UTC
9 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Startup Stock Op­tions: the Short­est Com­plete Guide for Employees

Boris T5 Jun 2024 15:03 UTC
17 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(borisagain.substack.com)

Cli­mate-con­tin­gent Fi­nance, and A Gen­er­al­ized Mechanism for X-Risk Re­duc­tion Financing

John Nay26 Sep 2022 13:23 UTC
0 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

X-Risk, An­throp­ics, & Peter Thiel’s In­vest­ment Thesis

Jackson Wagner26 Oct 2021 18:50 UTC
21 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Unit eco­nomics of LLM APIs

27 Aug 2024 16:51 UTC
42 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] May I ask for some help get­ting started with crypto?

SlainLadyMondegreen1 Nov 2021 21:52 UTC
5 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

AI play for the next 3 years: Le­mon­ade Insurance

Prin (Premek) Paska15 Feb 2024 13:48 UTC
2 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Equity pre­mium puzzles

16 Nov 2021 20:50 UTC
20 points
4 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

In Defense of Finance

Jacob Falkovich17 Dec 2018 16:59 UTC
51 points
31 comments1 min readLW link
(putanumonit.com)

The Power to Judge Startup Ideas

Liron4 Sep 2019 15:07 UTC
94 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

An in­vest­ment anal­ogy for Pas­cal’s Mugging

[deleted]9 Dec 2014 7:50 UTC
9 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

Pop­u­lar Per­sonal Fi­nan­cial Ad­vice ver­sus the Pro­fes­sors (James Choi, NBER)

BrownHairedEevee16 Oct 2022 22:21 UTC
17 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com)

What on Earth is a Series I sav­ings bond?

rossry11 Dec 2021 12:18 UTC
11 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

Why don’t sin­gu­lar­i­tar­i­ans bet on the cre­ation of AGI by buy­ing stocks?

John_Maxwell11 Mar 2020 16:27 UTC
43 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Twenty ba­sic rules for in­tel­li­gent money management

James_Miller19 Mar 2015 17:57 UTC
54 points
55 comments9 min readLW link

Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jun 2007 22:30 UTC
23 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Two om­i­nous charts on the fi­nan­cial mar­kets

arunto8 Jan 2022 14:07 UTC
25 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Re­peat Un­til Broke

gilch13 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
14 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

The Power to Teach Con­cepts Better

Liron23 Sep 2019 0:21 UTC
90 points
22 comments8 min readLW link1 review

The Wrong Side of Risk

gilch16 Aug 2020 3:50 UTC
22 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

Fi­nance Followups

Jacob Falkovich17 Jan 2019 17:54 UTC
26 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

I Am not a Tax Lawyer

Jacob Falkovich24 Dec 2017 3:20 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(putanumonit.com)

Are long-term in­vest­ments a good way to help the fu­ture?

Dacyn30 Apr 2018 14:41 UTC
10 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

Com­pet­i­tive Truth-Seeking

SatvikBeri1 Nov 2017 12:06 UTC
62 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Self-Pre­dict­ing Markets

eapache10 Jun 2020 22:39 UTC
26 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Life, Death, and Fi­nance in the Cos­mic Mul­ti­verse

peterb16 Oct 2022 18:57 UTC
2 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Alpha

Erich_Grunewald1 Jul 2023 16:05 UTC
65 points
2 comments14 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Risk is not em­piri­cally cor­re­lated with return

jsalvatier22 Nov 2010 5:31 UTC
11 points
28 comments2 min readLW link

“Risk” means surprise

PhilGoetz22 May 2015 4:47 UTC
12 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

Notes from the Qatar Cen­ter for Global Bank­ing and Fi­nance 3rd An­nual Conference

PixelatedPenguin7 Jul 2023 23:48 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Helping loved ones with their fi­nances: the why and how of an un­usu­ally im­pact­ful opportunity

Sam Anschell21 May 2024 18:48 UTC
0 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Kelly Bet on Everything

Jacob Falkovich10 Jul 2020 2:48 UTC
101 points
20 comments5 min readLW link2 reviews

The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster

Thomas Kwa1 Sep 2020 21:41 UTC
43 points
44 comments6 min readLW link

A sim­ple way of ex­ploit­ing AI’s com­ing eco­nomic im­pact may be highly-impactful

kuira16 Jul 2023 9:33 UTC
11 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The FTX Saga—Simplified

Annapurna16 Nov 2022 2:42 UTC
44 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(jorgevelez.substack.com)

milo’s Shortform

milo24 Jan 2022 15:36 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Bit­coin and ESG Investing

Annapurna15 Feb 2021 21:01 UTC
3 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Quest for Holy Grail of Hedg­ing in Re­tail Port­fo­lios!

milo25 Jan 2022 4:09 UTC
0 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Why real es­tate is the only in­vest­ment that mat­ters in AI dom­i­nated future

G20 Jan 2023 19:40 UTC
7 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
No comments.