bhauth
no, Magnifica Humanitas is not AI-written
The first fully-developed formulation of general-purpose prediction markets originated with Robin Hanson’s Idea Futures (1990),
Perhaps vehicles where the front is tall should also be taxed, based on expected risk to pedestrians. Napkin math indicates values comparable to CAFE fines.
But then I’d need to understand why they switched to this system (if it’s crash safety we should legislate that directly) and it’s not clear that continued regulatory whiplash is worth it.
Because of competition from Japan, US carmakers have made virtually no profit from small vehicles for a long time. Larger vehicles are more profitable for various reasons, including: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax
So, there was intense lobbying from US carmakers to not penalize larger vehicles, with the political cover being “not hurting small businesses and farmers that need trucks, or families that need to carry their kids”.
If a jar of food loses its seal before sale, it’s garbage. Jars have requirements about maintaining a vacuum and not getting opened accidentally, and a design that’s easy for women to open seems to be more expensive overall than women getting a jar opener, which you can find on Amazon for like $7.
Right, those. So, “allergy shots” have been a thing for a while, and now there’s “sublingual immunotherapy” where you just suck on a a tablet of allergens instead, and that seems to be better overall. But it’s pretty expensive, and doesn’t work for everyone. The effect size is maybe something like 20% of symptoms, but you have to adjust for discontinuation by people who have worse responses to it, which I think is leading to overestimation of effectiveness.
Anyway, if sublingual pollen allergen tablets work then you could just eat some local honey instead if you’re allergic to insect-pollinated plants. Which is, believe it or not, cheaper.
What do you mean, “prediction”? I already know the answer. But there are of course several factors in play, like pollen exposure being higher in rural areas, and cities planting specific trees.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21531404/
Pollinosis is found more frequently in urban areas than in rural environments. This could be partly related to the different types of pollen exposure in these dissimilar areas.
https://research-it.manchester.ac.uk/news/2023/04/03/urban-rural-hay-fever-divide/
Nature Scientific Reports paper which demonstrates that people living in urban areas report significantly worse hay fever symptoms than those living in rural locations
Have you considered doing a basic search before commenting?
Average air quality has improved, but if you take particulates and ozone adjusted by population density it hasn’t really gotten much better.
why pollen allergies?
“Co-founder of Facebook” is a bad backstory for a presidential candidate. Dustin Moskovitz has no chance of winning an election. If the goal is to get him into a debate to raise issues, well, he’s probably still not a good choice of person for that. Overall this seems like, at best, a waste of time.
Do you condemn the American Revolution?
I’ve heard a lot of people say: “if only we had smarter AI, we could solve [problem]”—but there are already smart people who could work on [problem] if society wanted them to and aren’t currently doing something more important. The biggest problem is distinguishing them from fake experts, and some people seem to think AI experts solve that problem, but I think people are starting to realize the nature of AI sycophancy a bit now.
I agree that children getting diseases at daycare is a significant problem. You didn’t mention it, but this also means parents get sick more via their kids.
Many arguments about daycare are motivated reasoning because it’s personally necessary, or because of ideology: “enabling more women in the workforce is good and therefore things that enable that can’t be bad”.
One would think that under such attacks on infrastructure any society must necessarily collapse. Or at least that’s what Putin hopes for. But the last time I’ve checked, Ukraine was still very much alive and kicking. The question is: how is that possible?
Partly because it’s gotten total aid of ~2x its annual GDP in ~4 years. (Which has led to eg a Europe-wide transformer shortage from replacing Ukrainian transformers destroyed by Shaheds.)
we’re chugging along gaining victory points at a fairly slow but low-variance rate
...we are? What percentage full is the victory point meter? What happens when it fills up?
maybe this will help: https://www.google.com/search?site=&source=hp&q=nylon+6+crystal+structure&udm=2
For some limits of enzymes, see these posts of mine:
this has implications for the inter-strand hydrogen bonding that gives Kevlar its strength
What? It’s the same strength. It’s not like nylon 6 being weaker than nylon 66, the aromatic links are symmetric. Why would it be weaker?
The strongest spider silk is...weaker than Kevlar by density, but it’s comparable, and much more elastic. Not bad at all. And it can be spun from aqueous solutions, while Kevlar is spun in pure sulfuric acid. You also have to consider UV resistance here.
hack it enzymatically with Diels-Alder cycloaddition
Yeah, no.
If you’re interested in progress in aramid fibers, you could look up “5-(6)-amino-2-(4-aminobenzene)benzimidazole”.
Mostly because it doesn’t work? Because the analogies you’re assuming between big stocks and small decisions don’t apply? Big stocks have billions of dollars traded and reporting/auditing requirements backed by courts and banks and governments. Try drawing a line from how Dow stocks behave to how penny stocks behave, and then extrapolate way past there.
So, the previous posts here led to this article in The Verge. Christopher Hale said in response:
He’s a popular Catholic writer focused on the Pope, with some Vatican connections.
An author of one of the previous LessWrong posts then responded by accusing Hale of using AI for his past work. But with 33k likes I guess Hale is winning in terms of popular opinion.
Anyway, for a bunch of people this is now how they heard of LessWrong, so they know it as a group of anti-Christianity pro-AI cultists running a smear campaign, lol.