I’ve been shifting my investments to more AI-focused bets.
Here’s an overview of my larger positions, in descending order of how
eager I am to recommend further purchases now:
MU—AI is memory hungry, and MU is in a good position for almost
NVDA-like growth
CSIQ—solar, for AI-related power demand
ASML—semiconductor equipment
SCIA—semiconductor equipment
GOOGL—for TPUs, DeepMind, and Waymo
SMCI—datacenter
NVDA
AMPX (and AMPX.WS) - batteries suitable for drones
TSSI—datacenter
CLS—close to half of its business involves datacenters
PDEX—a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
MTG—a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
ASTS—expanding cell phone coverage; I’ll likely sell when I can
get long-term gains
Short positions:
SP500 futures—hedging against risks such as tariffs
SOFR futures dated 2029 through 2032 - betting that interest rates
will rise due to AI
WMT—it’s got a high PE ratio, and little sign of growth
[This is not at all a complete list, as I have smaller positions in
something like 150 other companies.]
AI stocks are likely to form a bubble someday, but I’m guessing the
peak of that bubble is more than a year away.
I still have some concerns about tariff-related damage causing some
declines sometime this year. I’m optimistic that the courts will strike
down the per-country tariffs this fall. It shouldn’t take long for the
country to recover from the tariff damage once the tariffs have been
removed.
Beware that even in a strong bull market, there will be periodic scares,
such as January’s DeepSeek-trigger panic, that cause sharp drops in
leading stocks. AI-related stocks had a big rally in June, and are
likely to consolidate for a while before the next such rally.
AI-Oriented Investments
Link post
I’ve been shifting my investments to more AI-focused bets.
Here’s an overview of my larger positions, in descending order of how eager I am to recommend further purchases now:
MU—AI is memory hungry, and MU is in a good position for almost NVDA-like growth
CSIQ—solar, for AI-related power demand
ASML—semiconductor equipment
SCIA—semiconductor equipment
GOOGL—for TPUs, DeepMind, and Waymo
SMCI—datacenter
NVDA
AMPX (and AMPX.WS) - batteries suitable for drones
TSSI—datacenter
CLS—close to half of its business involves datacenters
PDEX—a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
MTG—a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
ASTS—expanding cell phone coverage; I’ll likely sell when I can get long-term gains
Short positions:
SP500 futures—hedging against risks such as tariffs
SOFR futures dated 2029 through 2032 - betting that interest rates will rise due to AI
WMT—it’s got a high PE ratio, and little sign of growth
[This is not at all a complete list, as I have smaller positions in something like 150 other companies.]
AI stocks are likely to form a bubble someday, but I’m guessing the peak of that bubble is more than a year away.
I still have some concerns about tariff-related damage causing some declines sometime this year. I’m optimistic that the courts will strike down the per-country tariffs this fall. It shouldn’t take long for the country to recover from the tariff damage once the tariffs have been removed.
Beware that even in a strong bull market, there will be periodic scares, such as January’s DeepSeek-trigger panic, that cause sharp drops in leading stocks. AI-related stocks had a big rally in June, and are likely to consolidate for a while before the next such rally.