A Mathematical Model of Alcor’s Economic Survival

In the August 1990 issue of Cryonics magazine published by the Alcor Life Extension Foundation offering human cryopreservation services, Michael R. Perry, the official historian of the foundation, published an article detailing a mathematical model aimed at calculating the long-term care costs of patients over time and, by extension, their maintenance until the development of revival technology or their thawing and theoretical death.

Since then, costs have changed, and I propose here an updated version of his mathematical model, which will indirectly allow us to assess the probability that the Alcor Foundation will survive through the centuries and succeed in its mission to save human and animal lives. The model will of course take into account the Alcor Patient Care Trust (PCT), which manages the long-term care of cryopatients. The goal of this article is to evaluate whether Alcor will be able to continue paying for the maintenance of these cryopatients for centuries if necessary.

(Author’s note: to designate a cephalon surgically separated from the torso, also called a body, I will use the term cephalopatient rather than neuropatient. A cephalopatient refers to a patient whose only the cephalic part of the body is maintained in long-term care in LN2, liquid nitrogen. The torsos of cephalopatient patients are generally cremated. Historically, Alcor uses the term neuropatients to refer to an isolated cephalon, but I personally use the term neuropatient to refer to a brain extracted alone from its skull; these terms were suggested by Max More and Jacob Cook.)

The minimum amounts currently requested by Alcor for human cryopreservation are $220,000 for a whole-body suspension and $80,000 for a cephalopatient. While these rates may seem excessive for middle-class individuals, they are accessible to the majority of the population in developed countries through life insurance or an investment fund in case of uninsurability. Life insurance premiums can, however, easily exceed $100 per month depending on the member’s age and health.

Alcor has a separate account to pay for the long-term care of these patients, the Alcor Patient Care Trust (PCT). In the 2022 financial statements of the foundation, it is indicated that the PCT contained $17,322,440. The PCT should be seen as a kind of piggy bank that generates interest each year. The formula is as follows: d = c ÷ i. Here, d is the capital, c is the annual cost in dollars that must be covered, and i is the real yield that can be withdrawn each year. At the time of writing, Alcor manages 252 cryopatients. We will use the 2022 figures for the example and use the number 248 patients. We will therefore calculate the implicit capital per patient: 17,322,440 ÷ 248 = $69,849. In short, if we divided the 2022 PCT by patients, we would get $69,849. However, it should be considered that this is simply an indicator because Alcor has minimum money requirements for whole-body patients and cephalopatient patients.

Now that we have a basis, we can move on to the calculations.

If we apply the 3% annual spending rule, each patient therefore “receives” $2,095 per year for funding long-term care, since 3% of $69,849 gives approximately $2,095. Once again, I must emphasize that these figures only apply if Alcor were only taking care of whole-body patients. Rates will differ between a whole-body patient and a cephalopatient. In order to project into the future while accounting for inflation, current rates must be multiplied by compounded inflation factors. For example, for a whole-body patient, we take $220,000 with an annual inflation of 2.5% over 25 years. So we take $220,000 and multiply it each year by 1.025 for 25 years. This gives approximately $436,700. The currently requested rate for cephalopreservation, at $80,000, would then rise to $159,000.

The Patient Care Trust contained approximately $17,322,440 in 2022. Suppose that, of 248 patients, about one-third choose Whole-Body preservation and two-thirds choose cephalopreservation. For Whole-Body patients, this amounts to about 83 patients (248 ÷ 3 ≈ 83). For cephalopatients, this amounts to about 165 patients (248 × 2 ÷ 3 ≈ 165).

The proportional total capital for Whole-Body patients is 1 ÷ 3 of the total PCT, or approximately $5,774,147 (17,322,440 ÷ 3 ≈ 5,774,147). Divided by 83 patients, this gives an average capital per Whole-Body patient of $69,500 (5,774,147 ÷ 83 ≈ 69,500). The total capital for cephalopatients is 2 ÷ 3 of the total PCT, or approximately $11,548,293 (17,322,440 × 2 ÷ 3 ≈ 11,548,293). Divided by 165 patients, the average capital per cephalopatient is about $69,990 (11,548,293 ÷ 165 ≈ 69,990). For Whole-Body patients, 2% of $69,500 gives approximately $1,390 per year (69,500 × 0.02 ≈ 1,390). For cephalopatients, 2% of $69,990 gives approximately $1,400 per year (69,990 × 0.02 ≈ 1,400).

If the PCT yields a real return of 3% per year:

Whole-Body: 3% of 69,500 ≈ $2,085
Cephalon: 3% of 69,990 ≈ $2,100

The interest therefore exceeds the annual 2% expenditure:

Whole-Body: 2,085 – 1,390 ≈ $695 gain per patient per year-
Cephalon: 2,100 – 1,400 ≈ $700 gain per patient per year

In conclusion, with these optimistic yet realistic assumptions, the PCT should be able to cover the long-term care of Alcor patients for a theoretically infinite duration. In practice, it should survive for several centuries, more than enough to await the development of revival technology. I therefore believe that Alcor patients are largely secure and will be reanimated in the future, rejuvenated and restored.