MSP Article Discussion Meetup: The EMH, Long-Term Investing, and Leveraged ETFs

THIS TIME ON THE READING GROUP: We’ll be discussing 2.5 articles. About investing! Uh, I understand it’s traditional when discussing these topics to point out that I know nothing and nothing I say (or that anyone else says) during this meetup will be financial advice.

https://​​www.lesswrong.com/​​posts/​​utySCY9nJt9xGYGGQ/​​the-emh-aten-t-dead a primer on the efficient market hypothesis, and why e.g. the Great Coronavirus Trade wasn’t a terrible blow against the EMH.

https://​​ddnum.com/​​articles/​​leveragedETFs.php ← a discussion of the behavior of leveraged index ETFs (like UPRO and TQQQ) over time, including the effects of volatility decay and borrowing costs.

https://​​www.citriniresearch.com/​​p/​​upgrading-from-overweight-the-effects ← STRICTLY OPTIONAL owing to length. This one was released several months ago from Citrini’s substack. Citrini’s a stock-picker that I think wrote a very well-thought-out (and, at least thus far, quite prescient) discussion of who the winners and the losers are of the GLP-1 agonist boom (GLPs, if you didn’t know, are the new weight loss drug class that’s been really taking off for the past couple of years owing to very high efficacy and apparently very mild side-effect profile. If this continues and doesn’t end up slowly turning people inside-out or whatever it is a big deal given how much of our economy is devoted to managing the obesity epidemic. CPAP providers and whatnot.)

Note that Sister’s Sludge Cafe wants everyone who comes to purchase a thing from the cafe; if that’s a problem just ask and I’ll buy something on your behalf, no questions asked.