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Heuris­tics & Biases

TagLast edit: 2 Oct 2020 18:36 UTC by Ruby

Heuris­tics and Bi­ases are the ways hu­man rea­son­ing differs from a the­o­ret­i­cal ideal agent, due to rea­son­ing short­cuts that don’t always work (heuris­tics) and sys­tem­atic er­rors (bi­ases).

See also: Affect Heuris­tic, Con­fir­ma­tion Bias, Fal­la­cies, Pre­dictably Wrong, Ra­tion­al­ity, Your In­tu­itions Are Not Magic, Bias, Heuristic

Basics

“Cog­ni­tive bi­ases” are those ob­sta­cles to truth which are pro­duced, not by the cost of in­for­ma­tion, nor by limited com­put­ing power, but by the shape of our own men­tal ma­chin­ery. For ex­am­ple, our men­tal pro­cesses might be evolu­tion­ar­ily adapted to speci­fi­cally be­lieve some things that ar­ent true, so that we could win poli­ti­cal ar­gu­ments in a tribal con­text. Or the men­tal ma­chin­ery might be adapted not to par­tic­u­larly care whether some­thing is true, such as when we feel the urge to be­lieve what oth­ers be­lieve to get along so­cially. Or the bias may be a side-effect of a use­ful rea­son­ing heuris­tic. The availa­bil­ity heuris­tic is not it­self a bias, but it gives rise to them; the ma­chin­ery uses an al­gorithm (give things more ev­i­den­tial weight if they come to mind more read­ily) that does some good cog­ni­tive work but also pro­duces sys­tem­atic er­rors.

Our brains are do­ing some­thing wrong, and af­ter a lot of ex­per­i­men­ta­tion and/​or heavy think­ing, some­one iden­ti­fies the prob­lem ver­bally and con­cretely; then we call it a “(cog­ni­tive) bias.” Not to be con­fused with the col­lo­quial “that per­son is bi­ased,” which just means “that per­son has a skewed or prej­u­diced at­ti­tude to­ward some­thing.”

A bias is an ob­sta­cle to our goal of ob­tain­ing truth, and thus in our way.

We are here to pur­sue the great hu­man quest for truth: for we have des­per­ate need of the knowl­edge, and be­sides, we’re cu­ri­ous. To this end let us strive to over­come what­ever ob­sta­cles lie in our way, whether we call them “bi­ases” or not.

It’s also use­ful to know the kinds of faults hu­man brains are prone to, in the same way it’s use­ful to know that your car’s brakes are a lit­tle gummy (so you don’t sail through a red light and into an 18-wheeler).

The Se­quence, Pre­dictably Wrong, offers an ex­cel­lent in­tro­duc­tion to the topic for those who are not fa­mil­iar.

Wait a minute… fal­la­cies, bi­ases, heuris­tics… what’s the differ­ence??

While a bias is always wrong, a heuris­tic is just a short­cut which may or may not give you an ac­cu­rate an­swer. Just be­cause you know com­plex math­e­mat­i­cal meth­ods for pre­cisely calcu­lat­ing the flight of ob­jects through space doesn’t mean you should be us­ing them to play vol­ley­ball. Which is to say, heuris­tics are nec­es­sary for ac­tu­ally get­ting any­thing done. But be­cause they are just ap­prox­i­ma­tions they fre­quently pro­duce bi­ases, which is where the prob­lem lies. “Fal­lacy” is of­ten used to mean a very similar thing as bias on LessWrong. [Needs bet­ter clar­ifi­ca­tion]

A good ex­am­ple of a heuris­tic is the af­fect heuris­tic—peo­ple tend to guess un­known traits about peo­ple or things based on the per­ceived good­ness of bad­ness of known traits. In some cir­cum­stances this is a use­ful short­cut—you may like to as­sume, for in­stance, that peo­ple who are good singers are more likely to be good dancers, too. How­ever, it also fre­quently pro­duces (un­con­scious) bi­ases—a bias to­wards be­liev­ing that peo­ple who are tall and good look­ing have bet­ter moral char­ac­ter, for in­stance.

So if I learn all the bi­ases, I can con­quer the world with my su­pe­rior in­tel­lect?

Well, no. If it were that easy we wouldn’t need a com­mu­nity ini­tially ded­i­cated to over­com­ing bias (the name of the blog which this web­site grew out of). Un­for­tu­nately, learn­ing about a bias alone doesn’t seem to im­prove your abil­ity to avoid it in real life. There’s also the (ma­jor) is­sue that know­ing about bi­ases can hurt peo­ple. In­stead of be­ing purely fo­cused on re­mov­ing nega­tive habits, there is now a ma­jor fo­cus at LessWrong to im­ple­ment­ing pos­i­tive habits. Th­ese are skills such as how to up­date (change your mind) the cor­rect amount in re­sponse to ev­i­dence, how to re­solve dis­agree­ments with oth­ers, how to in­tro­spect, and many more.

...What’s a bias, again?

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Nov 2006 1:50 UTC
87 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Bi­ases: An Introduction

Rob Bensinger11 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC
140 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Availability

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Sep 2007 6:55 UTC
63 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Scope Insensitivity

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 May 2007 2:53 UTC
133 points
52 comments2 min readLW link

The Halo Effect

Eliezer Yudkowsky30 Nov 2007 0:58 UTC
38 points
53 comments3 min readLW link

Plan­ning Fallacy

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Sep 2007 7:06 UTC
94 points
45 comments3 min readLW link

Con­junc­tion Fallacy

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Sep 2007 1:54 UTC
34 points
46 comments3 min readLW link

What cog­ni­tive bi­ases feel like from the inside

chaosmage3 Jan 2020 14:24 UTC
201 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

Cor­re­spon­dence Bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Jun 2007 0:58 UTC
57 points
48 comments3 min readLW link

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Z_M_Davis12 Apr 2009 17:30 UTC
37 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

The Affect Heuristic

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Nov 2007 7:58 UTC
45 points
68 comments3 min readLW link

The Trou­ble With “Good”

Scott Alexander17 Apr 2009 2:07 UTC
84 points
137 comments6 min readLW link

I Was Not Al­most Wrong But I Was Al­most Right: Close-Call Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Bias

Kaj_Sotala8 Mar 2012 5:39 UTC
64 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

The Sub­sti­tu­tion Principle

Kaj_Sotala28 Jan 2012 4:20 UTC
75 points
64 comments4 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Heuris­tics and Bi­ases (MIRI course list)

So8res2 Sep 2013 15:37 UTC
25 points
22 comments20 min readLW link

Con­fir­ma­tion Bias As Mis­fire Of Nor­mal Bayesian Reasoning

Scott Alexander13 Feb 2020 7:20 UTC
45 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Book Re­view: Pre­dictably Ir­ra­tional by Dan Ariely

erratio8 May 2011 8:13 UTC
34 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

How You Make Judg­ments: The Elephant and its Rider

lukeprog15 Apr 2011 1:02 UTC
49 points
19 comments13 min readLW link

Your Evolved Intuitions

lukeprog5 May 2011 16:21 UTC
15 points
106 comments10 min readLW link

Bur­den­some Details

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Sep 2007 23:46 UTC
109 points
32 comments4 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Fooled by Randomness

Sherrinford13 Jul 2020 21:02 UTC
33 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

But There’s Still A Chance, Right?

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Jan 2008 1:56 UTC
73 points
55 comments2 min readLW link

You can be wrong about what you like, and you of­ten are

adamzerner17 Dec 2018 23:49 UTC
32 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Do We Believe Every­thing We’re Told?

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Oct 2007 23:52 UTC
54 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

An­chor­ing and Adjustment

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Sep 2007 21:33 UTC
42 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

In praise of heuristics

Bucky24 Oct 2018 15:44 UTC
44 points
27 comments7 min readLW link

Sleep­walk bias, self-defeat­ing pre­dic­tions and ex­is­ten­tial risk

Stefan_Schubert22 Apr 2016 18:31 UTC
10 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Archimedes’s Chronophone

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Mar 2007 17:43 UTC
28 points
87 comments4 min readLW link

Your in­tu­itions are not magic

Kaj_Sotala10 Jun 2010 0:11 UTC
105 points
35 comments4 min readLW link

Pro­posed al­gorithm to fight an­chor­ing bias

John_Maxwell3 Aug 2019 4:07 UTC
10 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Un­bounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Nov 2007 7:45 UTC
33 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Asch’s Con­for­mity Experiment

Eliezer Yudkowsky26 Dec 2007 7:03 UTC
33 points
62 comments4 min readLW link

De­bi­as­ing as Non-Self-Destruction

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Apr 2007 20:20 UTC
32 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

“In­duc­tive Bias”

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 Apr 2007 19:52 UTC
25 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

Prim­ing and Contamination

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Oct 2007 2:23 UTC
38 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Anchoring

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Oct 2007 6:11 UTC
32 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Are these cog­ni­tive bi­ases, bi­ases?

Kaj_Sotala23 Dec 2009 17:27 UTC
35 points
24 comments6 min readLW link

Si­mul­ta­neous Over­con­fi­dence and Underconfidence

abramdemski3 Jun 2015 21:04 UTC
28 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

A List of Nuances

abramdemski10 Nov 2014 5:02 UTC
41 points
24 comments14 min readLW link

The Wrath of Kahneman

steven04619 Mar 2009 12:52 UTC
25 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

The Im­plicit As­so­ci­a­tion Test

Scott Alexander25 Mar 2009 0:11 UTC
29 points
31 comments7 min readLW link

Bo­gus Pipeline, Bona Fide Pipeline

Scott Alexander24 Mar 2009 0:10 UTC
25 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

Rev­er­sal Tests in Ar­gu­ment and Debate

Davis_Kingsley13 Sep 2019 9:18 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Beyond al­gorith­mic equiv­alence: self-modelling

Stuart_Armstrong28 Feb 2018 16:55 UTC
29 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Beyond al­gorith­mic equiv­alence: al­gorith­mic noise

Stuart_Armstrong28 Feb 2018 16:55 UTC
29 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Bias in ra­tio­nal­ity is much worse than noise

Stuart_Armstrong31 Oct 2017 11:57 UTC
27 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Why is the sur­pris­ingly pop­u­lar an­swer cor­rect?

Stuart_Armstrong3 Feb 2017 16:24 UTC
27 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

The silos of ex­per­tise: be­yond heuris­tics and biases

Stuart_Armstrong26 Jun 2014 13:13 UTC
30 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

“Fol­low your dreams” as a case study in in­cor­rect thinking

cousin_it20 Aug 2014 13:18 UTC
29 points
53 comments2 min readLW link

Linkpost: Choice Ex­plains Pos­i­tivity and Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

Gunnar_Zarncke1 Oct 2020 21:46 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Old-world Poli­tics Fallacy

Rudi C23 Jun 2020 12:32 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

A New Way to Vi­su­al­ize Biases

dtm22 Jul 2020 17:57 UTC
5 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Why You Might Want a New Way to Vi­su­al­ize Biases

dtm27 Jul 2020 17:30 UTC
17 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Do­ing your good deed for the day

Scott Alexander27 Oct 2009 0:45 UTC
132 points
57 comments3 min readLW link

Hind­sight De­val­ues Science

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Aug 2007 19:39 UTC
138 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Shut Up And Guess

Scott Alexander21 Jul 2009 4:04 UTC
97 points
109 comments5 min readLW link

The Bias You Didn’t Expect

Psychohistorian14 Apr 2011 16:20 UTC
97 points
92 comments2 min readLW link

Priv­ileg­ing the Question

Qiaochu_Yuan29 Apr 2013 18:30 UTC
127 points
312 comments2 min readLW link

You Are A Brain

Liron9 May 2009 21:53 UTC
115 points
79 comments1 min readLW link

New cog­ni­tive bias ar­ti­cles on wikipe­dia (up­date)

nerfhammer9 Mar 2012 20:13 UTC
84 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Dou­ble-Dip­ping in Dun­ning—Kruger

isovector28 Nov 2018 3:40 UTC
76 points
31 comments3 min readLW link

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

Xachariah3 May 2012 1:35 UTC
89 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Stranger Than History

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Sep 2007 18:57 UTC
77 points
335 comments1 min readLW link

Some Heuris­tics for Eval­u­at­ing the Sound­ness of the Aca­demic Main­stream in Un­fa­mil­iar Fields

Vladimir_M15 Feb 2011 9:17 UTC
77 points
278 comments9 min readLW link

Try­ing to Try

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Oct 2008 8:58 UTC
89 points
58 comments3 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity space has 2 metrics

Donald Hobson10 Feb 2019 0:28 UTC
93 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Never Leave Your Room

Scott Alexander18 Mar 2009 0:30 UTC
77 points
65 comments3 min readLW link

What are the op­ti­mal bi­ases to over­come?

aaronsw4 Aug 2012 15:04 UTC
76 points
70 comments2 min readLW link

Bi­ased Pandemic

freyley13 Mar 2012 23:32 UTC
56 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

Prospect The­ory: A Frame­work for Un­der­stand­ing Cog­ni­tive Biases

Scott Alexander10 Jul 2011 5:20 UTC
75 points
48 comments4 min readLW link

The Good News of Si­tu­a­tion­ist Psychology

lukeprog1 Apr 2011 19:28 UTC
67 points
49 comments3 min readLW link

Hind­sight bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky16 Aug 2007 21:58 UTC
59 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

A Tax­on­omy of Bias: The Cog­ni­tive Miser

Kaj_Sotala2 Jul 2010 18:38 UTC
54 points
38 comments5 min readLW link

Su­per­hero Bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2007 3:14 UTC
61 points
41 comments3 min readLW link

I’m Not Say­ing Peo­ple Are Stupid

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Oct 2009 16:23 UTC
43 points
101 comments1 min readLW link

We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Oct 2007 18:14 UTC
56 points
116 comments1 min readLW link

Blue- and Yel­low-Tinted Choices

Scott Alexander13 May 2010 22:35 UTC
53 points
57 comments4 min readLW link

Fun­da­men­tally Flawed, or Fast and Fru­gal?

Kaj_Sotala20 Dec 2009 15:10 UTC
41 points
86 comments6 min readLW link

The Allais Paradox

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Jan 2008 3:05 UTC
41 points
139 comments3 min readLW link

Chart­ing Deaths: Real­ity vs Reported

lifelonglearner30 Mar 2018 0:50 UTC
38 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(owenshen24.github.io)

Evalua­bil­ity (And Cheap Holi­day Shop­ping)

Eliezer Yudkowsky28 Nov 2007 0:37 UTC
41 points
61 comments4 min readLW link

Why ar­tifi­cial op­ti­mism?

jessicata15 Jul 2019 21:41 UTC
64 points
29 comments4 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Ver­bal Over­shad­ow­ing and The Art of Rationality

pangloss27 Apr 2009 23:39 UTC
61 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

On En­joy­ing Disagree­able Company

Alicorn26 May 2010 1:47 UTC
52 points
254 comments7 min readLW link

What’s In A Name?

Scott Alexander29 Jun 2009 12:54 UTC
43 points
139 comments3 min readLW link

In­stinc­tive Fre­quen­tists, the Out­side View, and de-Biasing

Stuart_Armstrong20 Sep 2013 20:19 UTC
41 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

[LINK] Cog­ni­tive Bi­ases in Sports: The Ir­ra­tional­ity of Coaches, Com­men­ta­tors and Fans

[deleted]23 Sep 2011 0:14 UTC
4 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Scarcity

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Mar 2008 8:07 UTC
47 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­sur­dity Heuris­tic, Ab­sur­dity Bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Sep 2007 3:20 UTC
40 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Know­ing About Bi­ases Can Hurt People

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Apr 2007 18:01 UTC
119 points
80 comments2 min readLW link

Lawful Uncertainty

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Nov 2008 21:06 UTC
53 points
53 comments4 min readLW link

Con­junc­tion Con­tro­versy (Or, How They Nail It Down)

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Sep 2007 2:41 UTC
39 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Why Sup­port the Un­der­dog?

Scott Alexander5 Apr 2009 0:01 UTC
35 points
102 comments3 min readLW link

Ten­den­cies in re­flec­tive equilibrium

Scott Alexander20 Jul 2011 10:38 UTC
44 points
70 comments4 min readLW link

Know­ing I’m Be­ing Tricked is Barely Enough

Elizabeth26 Feb 2019 17:50 UTC
39 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

So You Think You’re a Bayesian? The Nat­u­ral Mode of Prob­a­bil­is­tic Reasoning

Matt_Simpson14 Jul 2010 16:51 UTC
48 points
80 comments10 min readLW link

A sim­pler way to think about pos­i­tive test bias

cousin_it22 Jan 2018 9:38 UTC
34 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Why is the Fu­ture So Ab­surd?

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Sep 2007 8:42 UTC
34 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

Why You’re Stuck in a Narrative

[deleted]4 Aug 2009 0:31 UTC
38 points
32 comments5 min readLW link

Why Don’t Peo­ple Help Others More?

peter_hurford13 Aug 2012 23:34 UTC
36 points
85 comments10 min readLW link

How Much Thought

jimrandomh12 Apr 2009 4:56 UTC
39 points
26 comments4 min readLW link

The Red Bias

Jack20 Apr 2010 11:42 UTC
33 points
62 comments4 min readLW link

The File Drawer Effect and Con­for­mity Bias (Elec­tion Edi­tion)

Salemicus8 May 2015 16:51 UTC
31 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

If we can’t lie to oth­ers, we will lie to ourselves

paulfchristiano26 Nov 2016 22:29 UTC
25 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

By­s­tan­der Apathy

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Apr 2009 1:26 UTC
32 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

The Anti-Placebo Effect

ShannonFriedman28 Sep 2013 5:44 UTC
40 points
39 comments3 min readLW link

Zut Allais!

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Jan 2008 3:18 UTC
28 points
48 comments6 min readLW link

Pos­i­tive Bias Test (C++ pro­gram)

MBlume19 May 2009 21:32 UTC
28 points
79 comments4 min readLW link

Fight Bi­ases, or Route Around Them?

Scott Alexander25 Mar 2009 22:23 UTC
27 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

Feel­ing Moral

Eliezer Yudkowsky11 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC
28 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Judg­ment Un­der Uncer­tainty sum­maries, Part 1: Representativeness

Tesseract15 Aug 2011 0:05 UTC
30 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

shminux17 Aug 2019 21:47 UTC
32 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­ploit­ing the Typ­i­cal Mind Fal­lacy for more ac­cu­rate ques­tion­ing?

Xachariah17 Jul 2012 0:46 UTC
31 points
73 comments1 min readLW link

Re­view of Kah­ne­man, ‘Think­ing, Fast and Slow’ (2011)

lukeprog28 Oct 2011 1:59 UTC
28 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

De-Cen­ter­ing Bias

Chris_Leong18 Oct 2017 23:24 UTC
28 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal debiasing

crazy8820 Nov 2011 9:45 UTC
26 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

Fight Zero-Sum Bias

multifoliaterose18 Jul 2010 5:57 UTC
25 points
164 comments2 min readLW link

Am­bi­guity in cog­ni­tive bias names; a refresher

nerfhammer21 Feb 2012 4:37 UTC
27 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Bi­ases of In­tu­itive and Log­i­cal Thinkers

pwno13 Aug 2013 3:50 UTC
27 points
84 comments7 min readLW link

In­stru­men­tal Ra­tion­al­ity 2: Plan­ning 101

lifelonglearner6 Oct 2017 14:23 UTC
26 points
4 comments14 min readLW link

[Link] How to Dispel Your Illu­sions

[deleted]6 Dec 2011 14:46 UTC
25 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Choice begets regret

bryjnar4 Jan 2018 20:28 UTC
25 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

Scope Insen­si­tivity Judo

G Gordon Worley III19 Jul 2019 17:33 UTC
25 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Is Stu­pidity Ex­pand­ing? Some Hy­pothe­ses.

David_Gross15 Oct 2020 3:28 UTC
67 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

Evolved Bayesi­ans will be biased

taw20 Aug 2009 14:54 UTC
24 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Allais Malaise

Eliezer Yudkowsky21 Jan 2008 0:40 UTC
23 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

Si­mul­ta­neously Right and Wrong

Scott Alexander7 Mar 2009 22:25 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

It’s the Same Five Dol­lars!

Z_M_Davis8 Mar 2009 7:23 UTC
23 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

Zwicky’s Trifecta of Illusions

thomblake17 Jul 2009 16:59 UTC
18 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

The Ra­tion­al­ity Wars

Stefan_Schubert27 Feb 2014 17:08 UTC
21 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

Proverbs and Cached Judg­ments: the Rol­ling Stone

Annoyance1 Apr 2009 15:40 UTC
18 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

Should we be bi­ased?

James_Miller27 Apr 2009 15:42 UTC
−13 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Heuris­tic is not a bad word

HughRistik6 Apr 2009 6:55 UTC
10 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Only hu­mans can have hu­man values

PhilGoetz26 Apr 2010 18:57 UTC
39 points
161 comments17 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ity: An Introduction

Rob Bensinger11 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC
20 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ist Judo, or Us­ing the Availa­bil­ity Heuris­tic to Win

jschulter15 Jul 2011 8:39 UTC
23 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

Con­sider Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Data Sets

Vladimir_Nesov6 May 2009 1:49 UTC
9 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Ter­mi­nal Bias

[deleted]30 Jan 2012 21:03 UTC
20 points
125 comments6 min readLW link

Readi­ness Heuristics

jimrandomh15 Jun 2009 1:53 UTC
21 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Don’t Count Your Chick­ens...

thomblake17 Jun 2009 15:21 UTC
3 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Straight-edge Warn­ing Against Phys­i­cal Intimacy

Raphaëll23 Nov 2020 21:35 UTC
5 points
28 comments5 min readLW link

“I know I’m bi­ased, but...”

[deleted]10 May 2011 20:03 UTC
24 points
21 comments3 min readLW link
No comments.