Confirmation Bias

TagLast edit: Feb 8, 2025, 12:32 AM by lesswrong-internal

Confirmation bias (also known as positive bias) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one’s prior personal beliefs or hypotheses [1]. For example, one might test hypotheses with positive rather than negative examples, thus missing obvious disconfirming tests.

“I had, also, during many years followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from the memory than favourable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.”—Charles Darwin (autobiography)

External Links

Speculations on the Future of Science by Kevin Kelly
On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task by P.C. Wason
Write Your Hypothetical Apostasy by Nick Bostrom
Confirmation Bias, Wikipedia

Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality

Scott AlexanderMar 12, 2021, 8:02 PM

153 points

82 votes

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34 comments14 min readLW link 3 reviews

Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 28, 2007, 3:55 AM

178 points

157 votes

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59 comments3 min readLW link

Confirmation Bias As Misfire Of Normal Bayesian Reasoning

Scott AlexanderFeb 13, 2020, 7:20 AM

43 points

17 votes

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9 comments2 min readLW link

(slatestarcodex.com)

Case Study: Testing Confirmation Bias

gwernMay 2, 2012, 2:03 PM

51 points

63 votes

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63 comments1 min readLW link

Ideological Bayesians

Kevin DorstFeb 25, 2024, 2:17 PM

98 points

46 votes

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5 comments10 min readLW link

(kevindorst.substack.com)

Subtle Forms of Confirmation Bias

abramdemskiJul 3, 2017, 11:00 PM

20 points

10 votes

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4 comments5 min readLW link

Sufficiently sincere confirmation bias is indistinguishable from science

BenquoMar 15, 2017, 1:19 PM

37 points

22 votes

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19 comments2 min readLW link

Privileging the Hypothesis

Eliezer YudkowskySep 29, 2009, 12:40 AM

128 points

98 votes

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130 comments5 min readLW link

Confirmation Bias in Action

Jacob FalkovichJan 24, 2021, 5:38 PM

37 points

17 votes

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1 comment13 min readLW link

Navigating LLM embedding spaces using archetype-based directions

mwatkinsMay 8, 2024, 5:54 AM

16 points

12 votes

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4 comments28 min readLW link

“Nahh, that wouldn’t work”

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)Nov 28, 2010, 9:32 PM

98 points

93 votes

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50 comments2 min readLW link

Linkpost: Choice Explains Positivity and Confirmation Bias

Gunnar_ZarnckeOct 1, 2020, 9:46 PM

8 points

1 vote

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0 comments1 min readLW link

[Valence series] 3. Valence & Beliefs

Steven ByrnesDec 11, 2023, 8:21 PM

77 points

20 votes

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12 comments21 min readLW link 1 review

The Plan − 2022 Update

johnswentworthDec 1, 2022, 8:43 PM

239 points

135 votes

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37 comments8 min readLW link 1 review

The Crackpot Offer

Eliezer YudkowskySep 8, 2007, 2:32 PM

130 points

109 votes

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73 comments3 min readLW link

The Temptation to Bubble

gressettdSep 23, 2015, 11:34 PM

34 points

29 votes

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28 comments5 min readLW link

ChatGPT challenges the case for human irrationality

Kevin DorstAug 22, 2023, 12:46 PM

3 points

15 votes

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10 comments7 min readLW link

(kevindorst.substack.com)

The Thinking Ladder—Wait But Why

LironSep 29, 2019, 6:51 PM

19 points

7 votes

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1 comment1 min readLW link

(waitbutwhy.com)

Seek Fair Expectations of Others’ Models

ZviOct 17, 2017, 2:30 PM

60 points

52 votes

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17 comments9 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How did you first understand cognitive biases? Looking for community experiences

Vladimir LoginovJul 6, 2025, 10:48 AM

8 points

2 votes

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3 comments1 min readLW link

You Cannot Stop IT

No_Taro4331Jul 30, 2024, 3:00 AM

1 point

1 vote

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0 comments1 min readLW link

Epistemic Luck

AlicornFeb 8, 2010, 12:02 AM

109 points

91 votes

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133 comments3 min readLW link

Frequently Asked Questions for Central Banks Undershooting Their Inflation Target

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 29, 2017, 11:36 PM

65 points

55 votes

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30 comments35 min readLW link

Expert Trap: why expertise breeds error—and how to course-correct

Paweł SysiakSep 3, 2025, 5:11 PM

2 points

1 vote

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0 comments16 min readLW link

(open.substack.com)

Expert trap: Why is it happening? (Part 2 of 3) – how hindsight, hierarchy, and confirmation biases break conductivity and accuracy of knowledge

Paweł SysiakJun 9, 2023, 11:00 PM

3 points

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0 comments7 min readLW link

The Modern Problems with Conformity

Zero ContradictionsJul 13, 2024, 8:20 AM

0 points

8 votes

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5 comments1 min readLW link

(expandingrationality.substack.com)

Lost in Fiction: The Declining Appeal of Real Life

Seikro HajimeDec 1, 2024, 8:51 AM

0 points

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0 comments3 min readLW link

Reasoning isn’t about logic (it’s about arguing)

MorendilMar 14, 2010, 4:42 AM

66 points

53 votes

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31 comments3 min readLW link

Expert trap: What is it? (Part 1 of 3) – how hindsight, hierarchy, and confirmation biases break conductivity and accuracy of knowledge

Paweł SysiakJun 9, 2023, 11:00 PM

6 points

6 votes

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2 comments8 min readLW link

Scientific misconduct misdiagnosed because of scientific misconduct

GLaDOSJun 10, 2011, 2:49 PM

64 points

47 votes

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55 comments2 min readLW link

Anthropomorphic Optimism

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 4, 2008, 8:17 PM

84 points

68 votes

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60 comments5 min readLW link

Positive Bias Test (C++ program)

MBlumeMay 19, 2009, 9:32 PM

30 points

31 votes

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79 comments4 min readLW link

Semantic Stopsigns

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 24, 2007, 7:29 PM

163 points

154 votes

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111 comments3 min readLW link

Reasonable Explanations

AlicornJun 16, 2019, 5:29 AM

78 points

25 votes

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7 comments1 min readLW link

The Statistician’s Fallacy

ChrisHallquistDec 9, 2013, 4:48 AM

64 points

46 votes

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69 comments3 min readLW link

ChatGPT vs the 2-4-6 Task

cwilluJan 25, 2023, 6:59 AM

20 points

14 votes

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4 comments3 min readLW link

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Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

External Links

Confirmation Bias