Betting

TagLast edit: 16 Apr 2020 20:30 UTC by Ruby

Betting is staking money (or some other form of value) on one beliefs. It is considered rationally virtuous to bet on one’s beliefs, as the real stakes force one to actually consider precisely what they anticipate will really happen.

See also:

Even Odds

Scott Garrabrant12 Jan 2014 7:24 UTC

69 points

47 comments3 min readLW link

The Kelly Criterion

Zvi15 Oct 2018 21:20 UTC

99 points

24 comments3 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners

jefftk3 Jan 2021 21:20 UTC

404 points

35 comments2 min readLW link 1 review

(www.jefftk.com)

Betting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC

33 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Bet Your Friends to Be More Right

katydee8 Nov 2013 21:12 UTC

11 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

The Kelly Criterion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC

46 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

A concrete bet offer to those with short AGI timelines

Matthew Barnett and Tamay

9 Apr 2022 21:41 UTC

194 points

116 comments5 min readLW link

Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem

abramdemski24 Jun 2020 20:04 UTC

101 points

14 comments1 min readLW link

The Bayesian Tyrant

abramdemski20 Aug 2020 0:08 UTC

133 points

21 comments6 min readLW link 1 review

Kelly Bet on Everything

Jacob Falkovich10 Jul 2020 2:48 UTC

99 points

20 comments5 min readLW link 2 reviews

Free Money at PredictIt?

Zvi26 Sep 2019 16:10 UTC

49 points

17 comments6 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Of arguments and wagers

paulfchristiano10 Jan 2020 22:20 UTC

52 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

(ai-alignment.com)

A method for fair bargaining over odds in 2 player bets!

Agrippa Kellum11 Jan 2020 1:18 UTC

11 points

9 comments2 min readLW link

Bets and updating

Eigil Rischel7 Oct 2019 23:06 UTC

31 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Risk aversion does not explain people’s betting behaviours

Stuart_Armstrong20 Aug 2012 12:38 UTC

19 points

36 comments2 min readLW link

Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption

cousin_it7 Jun 2017 15:03 UTC

59 points

61 comments1 min readLW link

Buy Insurance—Bet Against Yourself

MBlume26 Nov 2010 4:48 UTC

42 points

69 comments2 min readLW link

The Inefficient Market Hypothesis

lsusr24 Apr 2020 7:33 UTC

70 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush?

Wei_Dai19 Jul 2014 10:08 UTC

69 points

115 comments1 min readLW link

Kelly bettors

DanielFilan13 Nov 2018 0:40 UTC

23 points

3 comments10 min readLW link

(danielfilan.com)

Who wants to be a Millionaire?

Bucky1 Feb 2019 14:02 UTC

29 points

1 comment11 min readLW link

The Apocalypse Bet

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Aug 2007 17:23 UTC

47 points

51 comments1 min readLW link

Notebook for generating forecasting bets

Amandango26 Sep 2020 20:36 UTC

25 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

sapphire17 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC

38 points

89 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly Bet or Update?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 20:26 UTC

49 points

23 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo28 Nov 2020 12:51 UTC

16 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo7 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC

43 points

16 comments2 min readLW link

Calculating Kelly

abramdemski22 Feb 2021 17:32 UTC

34 points

18 comments3 min readLW link

Speculations Concerning the First Free-ish Prediction Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC

29 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control

lsusr9 Feb 2022 9:54 UTC

54 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

Bet on Rare Undesirable Outcomes when Seeding a Prediction Market

lsusr10 Feb 2022 0:20 UTC

33 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

Reward Good Bets That Had Bad Outcomes

Neel Nanda22 Feb 2022 0:25 UTC

44 points

11 comments8 min readLW link

How to place a bet on the end of the world

DirectedEvolution20 Apr 2022 18:24 UTC

26 points

12 comments2 min readLW link

The Caplan-Yudkowsky End-of-the-World Bet Scheme Doesn’t Actually Work

lsusr25 Feb 2023 18:57 UTC

6 points

14 comments2 min readLW link

Conceding a short timelines bet early

Matthew Barnett16 Mar 2023 21:49 UTC

132 points

16 comments1 min readLW link

Techniques for probability estimates

Scott Alexander4 Jan 2011 23:38 UTC

99 points

60 comments7 min readLW link

My Bet Log

philh19 Mar 2020 21:10 UTC

16 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

(reasonableapproximation.net)

money ≠ value

stonefly30 Apr 2023 17:47 UTC

2 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Ongoing free money at PredictIt

knite11 Nov 2020 4:06 UTC

12 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

Expected Value vs. Expected Growth

tom-pollak5 Jun 2022 18:48 UTC

3 points

1 comment2 min readLW link

Operationalizing two tasks in Gary Marcus’s AGI challenge

Bill Benzon9 Jun 2022 18:31 UTC

12 points

3 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit.org

df fd7 Dec 2020 9:09 UTC

6 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

[link] Betting on bad futures

fortyeridania22 Sep 2012 15:50 UTC

27 points

20 comments1 min readLW link

Zeroing Out

Zvi5 Nov 2017 16:10 UTC

45 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Wanna bet?

ThomasJ9 Oct 2022 21:26 UTC

4 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Competitive Truth-Seeking

SatvikBeri1 Nov 2017 12:06 UTC

62 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Kelly isn’t (just) about logarithmic utility

SimonM23 Feb 2021 12:12 UTC

34 points

41 comments4 min readLW link

Kelly is (just) about logarithmic utility

abramdemski1 Mar 2021 20:02 UTC

91 points

26 comments12 min readLW link 1 review

A non-logarithmic argument for Kelly

Bunthut4 Mar 2021 16:21 UTC

23 points

10 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly Betting Discussion

Raemon12 Mar 2021 0:10 UTC

20 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

The EMH is False—Specific Strong Evidence

sapphire18 Mar 2021 18:38 UTC

60 points

83 comments6 min readLW link

Violating the EMH—Prediction Markets

sapphire28 Mar 2021 4:05 UTC

40 points

9 comments4 min readLW link

Austin LW meetup notes: The FTX Affair

jchan22 Nov 2022 14:01 UTC

20 points

3 comments16 min readLW link

I bet $500 on AI winning the IMO gold medal by 2026

azsantosk11 May 2023 14:46 UTC

37 points

27 comments1 min readLW link

A (somewhat beta) site for embedding betting odds in your writing

Optimization Process2 Jul 2021 1:10 UTC

51 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

(biatob.com)

How the Equivalent Bet Test Actually Works

Erich_Grunewald18 Dec 2021 11:17 UTC

4 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Rationalism and social rationalism

philosophybear10 Mar 2023 23:20 UTC

17 points

5 comments10 min readLW link

(philosophybear.substack.com)

[Question] How to Legally Conduct “Rationalist Bets” in California?

Davis_Kingsley9 Feb 2022 8:16 UTC

9 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

1001 PredictionBook Nights

gwern8 Oct 2011 16:04 UTC

72 points

49 comments1 min readLW link

The Art of the Overbet

Zvi19 Oct 2018 14:00 UTC

55 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet Payoff 1: OpenPhil/MIRI Grant Increase

Ben Pace9 Nov 2017 18:31 UTC

15 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

An investment analogy for Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]9 Dec 2014 7:50 UTC

9 points

36 comments1 min readLW link

Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)

aphyer14 Jul 2020 7:24 UTC

189 points

48 comments7 min readLW link

When betting, consider non-ergodicity and absorbing states

NinaR1 Jun 2023 18:51 UTC

6 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

(ninarimsky.substack.com)

PredictionBook.com—Track your calibration

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2009 0:08 UTC

41 points

53 comments1 min readLW link

Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Feb 2008 21:42 UTC

35 points

58 comments1 min readLW link

Encouraging New Users To Bet On Their Beliefs

YafahEdelman18 Apr 2023 22:10 UTC

47 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

Mitt Romney’s $10,000 bet

MileyCyrus12 Dec 2011 2:14 UTC

50 points

26 comments1 min readLW link

On Robin Hanson’s Board Game

Zvi8 Sep 2018 17:10 UTC

49 points

15 comments17 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity

Orborde3 Nov 2019 23:31 UTC

32 points

13 comments4 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristiano26 Feb 2022 4:50 UTC

163 points

25 comments3 min readLW link

A Story of Kings and Spies

Joshua_Blaine11 Jun 2014 23:54 UTC

37 points

33 comments6 min readLW link

If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty...

ata12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC

130 points

28 comments8 min readLW link

PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC

37 points

28 comments4 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

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