# Agrippa Kellum

Karma: 8
• Good point.

• By \$2 bet at 66% odds, I mean that the Yes po­si­tion costs \$2*66% and the No po­si­tion costs \$2*34%.

You’re right that “max wa­ger” is meant to be max­i­mum loss. I think you’re pick­ing up on the fact that I made a mis­take in calcu­lat­ing loss for each player. I was calcu­lat­ing the po­ten­tial loss for “\$2 bet at 66%” as 2 dol­lars for both play­ers, but that’s ob­vi­ously wrong, and no rea­son afaik that the play­ers should have the same max­i­mum loss. Thanks for the ob­ser­va­tion.

Let’s say A gives event E 60% odds and B gives E 90% odds. For a bet at even odds:

EV_A(YES) = .4 * -.5 + .6 * .5 = .1

EV_A(NO) = .6 * -.5 + .4 * .5 = -.1

From A’s per­spec­tive the no po­si­tion on the 5050 bet (or any bet where the no po­si­tion costs more than 40 cents on the dol­lar) is nega­tive EV. So if A sub­mit­ted 0% odds, they’d be forc­ing them­selves to take a lot of nega­tive EV bets.

• I like your sum­mary of the method. Good point as well. Per­haps you would want a norm that play­ers don’t dis­cuss their max­i­mum bets be­fore en­ter­ing them.

I’m not fa­mil­iar with the Kelly Cri­te­rion so I’ll check that out.

# A method for fair bar­gain­ing over odds in 2 player bets!

11 Jan 2020 1:18 UTC
9 points