codyz

Karma: 13

codyz’s Shortform

codyz21 Oct 2025 2:27 UTC

2 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

codyz 21 Oct 2025 2:27 UTC
1 point
0
on: codyz’s Shortform
Given these papers, the developments with 3i/Atlas, and the repeated rounds of congressional hearings, has anyone updated on Eliezer’s UFO bet?

codyz 19 Nov 2024 1:57 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Charlie Steiner’s comment on: Another UFO Bet
Charlie and I have made the bet. I sent $1000 on 11/18/24 against his $50,000. Happy betting!

codyz 7 Nov 2024 5:59 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Charlie Steiner’s comment on: Another UFO Bet
Yep, these are good points. Appreciate you engaging in such good faith. Would still like to bet if you’re down.

codyz 6 Nov 2024 1:14 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Jiro’s comment on: Another UFO Bet
That’s true in any scenario, though. For all of life really. The ratio of likelihood of loopholes costing you money versus losing the best costing you money doesn’t matter, as long as their absolute values are both low. And shoring up ambiguous language in the bet is how you make the former low.

codyz 6 Nov 2024 1:12 UTC
3 points
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in reply to: Charlie Steiner’s comment on: Another UFO Bet
I also partook in some betting last time, but I’d like to do more. I’ve done more research on this over the last year and built more conviction that this is the right play, that’s really all that’s changed. Would you be down to bet again?

codyz 1 Nov 2024 20:08 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Jiro’s comment on: Another UFO Bet
Sure, I hear you there. Is there a way I could reword or clarify that would assuage that concern?

Another UFO Bet

codyz1 Nov 2024 1:55 UTC

9 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

codyz 1 Nov 2024 1:43 UTC
4 points
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on: What TMS is like
My sister tried TMS and said it made her ears ring. Did you experience that?

codyz 22 Aug 2023 19:26 UTC
1 point
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on: UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
Codyz bets Algon according to the terms of this post with 150:1 odds.
Cody bets $120 USD that UFOs are prosaic against Ali’s $18,000 USD that they are not.
Cody sent the $120 USD today, 8/22/23, via Paypal. Ali to confirm receipt below.

codyz 2 Aug 2023 2:46 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Algon’s comment on: UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
Hi Algon. I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you’re interested.

codyz 2 Aug 2023 2:45 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Ted Sanders’s comment on: UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
Hi Ted. I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you’re interested.

codyz 2 Aug 2023 2:45 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: CarlShulman’s comment on: UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
Carl, I’m interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP’s side of the bet, if you’d like to bet more. I’ll also happy to give you better odds than 150:1. DM me if you’re interested.

codyz 21 Jul 2023 21:16 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: frontier64’s comment on: UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
I’ll take OP’s side of this bet with you if you’re still interested.

codyz 21 Jul 2023 21:15 UTC
1 point
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on: UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
I will also take this bet, on the side of /u/RatsWrongAboutUAP with exactly the same terms, with anyone who wants. I will pay you now, you pay me 150:1 if UFO are supernatural within the next 5 years.