This page lists bets made by members of LessWrong; it is organised by the year the winner will be decided.

Bets decided in 2010

• Paul Crowley (ciphergoth) and mattnewport: $50 on “10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state” Thread

Bets decided in 2014

• Eliezer Yudkowsky and RolfAndreassen: 25 dollars on the discovery of the Higgs. EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics. (Original comment) Resolution: five-sigma evidence of Higgs boson did appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.

Bets decided in 2017

• Eliezer Yudkowsky and gwern: $100 to $5 on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality winning a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017. (comment) Resolution: MoR did not.

Bets decided in 2112

• Eliezer Yudkowsky and MixedNuts: $100 in 2012 against $200 (real) in 2112 that the Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing. (comment)

Bets decided eventually

• EliezerYudkowsky and Unknown: $10 by Unknown (paid in 2008) against $1000 inflation-adjusted paid by Eliezer Yudkowsky in the following event:

  • “When someone designs a superintelligent AI (it won’t be Eliezer), without paying any attention to Friendliness (the first person who does it won’t), and the world doesn’t end (it won’t), it will be interesting to hear Eliezer’s excuses.” (comment)

• Robin Hanson and Joshua Fox: $3000 linked to S&P500 about whether AI’s will be ems or de-novo once non-biological general intelligence has most of the computing power. (That’s an informal summary. See LessWrong and Overcoming Bias for a more precise statement of the bet.)