Plan­ning & De­ci­sion-Making

How to Mea­sure Anything

De­ci­sion Anal­y­sis Sequence

Plan­ning Fallacy

Plans are Re­cur­sive & Why This is Important

A challenge for AGI or­ga­ni­za­tions, and a challenge for readers

Leaky Del­e­ga­tion: You are not a Commodity

Si­mu­late and Defer To More Ra­tional Selves

If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

Chap­ter 6: The Plan­ning Fallacy

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

In Search of Strate­gic Clarity

The cor­rect re­sponse to un­cer­tainty is *not* half-speed

Happy paths and the plan­ning fallacy

Why Plan­ning is Hard: A Mul­ti­faceted Model

What are the most com­mon and im­por­tant trade-offs that de­ci­sion mak­ers face?

5 Ax­ioms of De­ci­sion Making

Com­press­ing Real­ity to Math

Mea­sures, Risk, Death, and War

Value of In­for­ma­tion: Four Examples

Liv­ing in Many Worlds

Sta­bi­lize-Reflect-Execute

nos­talge­braist: Re­cur­sive Good­hart’s Law

The Prac­tice & Virtue of Discernment

Value load­ing in the hu­man brain: a worked example

Non-re­solve as Resolve

Notes on Resolve

Plans Are Pre­dic­tions, Not Op­ti­miza­tion Targets

Deon­tol­ogy and virtue ethics as “effec­tive the­o­ries” of con­se­quen­tial­ist ethics

Exquisite Or­a­cle: A Dadaist-In­spired Liter­ary Game for Many Friends (or 1 AI)

Dice De­ci­sion Making

Four kinds of problems

Four Scopes Of Advice

Bias in cap­i­tal pro­ject de­ci­sion making

Try­ing to Try

The Ul­ti­mate Step-by-Step Hiring Playbook

How To Ac­tu­ally Succeed

Opt out from the Funni

Heuris­tics on bias to ac­tion ver­sus sta­tus quo?

Har­dened Prob­lems Make Brit­tle Models

What Makes My At­tempt Spe­cial?

Be more effec­tive by learn­ing im­por­tant prac­ti­cal knowl­edge us­ing flashcards

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

The Power to Judge Startup Ideas

Harder Choices Mat­ter Less

On char­ac­ter­iz­ing heavy-tailedness

Why it feels like ev­ery­thing is a trade-off

How time track­ing can help you prioritize

Ur­gent & im­por­tant: How (not) to do your to-do list

De­ci­sion mak­ing un­der model am­bi­guity, moral un­cer­tainty, and other agents with free will?

Do­ing “Noth­ing”

What I got out of ‘Al­gorithms to Live By’

Time Biases

Train­ing Regime Day 10: Systemization

Train­ing Regime Day 14: Traf­fic Jams

Train­ing Regime Day 20: OODA Loop

In­stru­men­tal Ra­tion­al­ity 2: Plan­ning 101

Be­ware of Fake Alternatives

[Question] How to make plans?

How to reach 80% of your goals. Ex­actly 80%.

On Not Hav­ing an Ad­vance Abyssal Plan

Ab­stract Plans Lead to Failure

Notes on Industriousness

The Art of Crit­i­cal De­ci­sion Making

Readi­ness Heuristics

The ap­pli­ca­tion of the sec­re­tary prob­lem to real life dating

Com­ing Out

The Real Rules Have No Exceptions

[Question] What are a ra­tio­nal­ist’s best tools for bet­ter de­ci­sion mak­ing?

Write a busi­ness plan already

How & when to write a busi­ness plan

Be less scared of overconfidence

Your in­ner Google

Recom­men­da­tions vs. Guidelines

Straw­man Yourself

The value of low-con­scien­tious­ness peo­ple on teams

Uncertainty

[Question] What Should I Do To­day?

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Sce­nario Map­ping Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion (*Closed*)

How evolu­tion­ary lineages of LLMs can plan their own fu­ture and act on these plans

Out to Get You

OpenAI’s Align­ment Plan is not S.M.A.R.T.

You Are Be­ing Underpaid

[Question] Why are peo­ple so bad at dat­ing?

Coun­ter­in­tu­itive Com­par­a­tive Advantage

Dremeling

I’m go­ing to help you quit Face­book with some science

Critch on ca­reer ad­vice for ju­nior AI-x-risk-con­cerned researchers

TDT for Humans

The Art of the Overbet

The First Step is to Ad­mit That You Have a Problem

On Pro­cras­ti­na­tion—The art of shap­ing your fu­ture actions

“Backchain­ing” in Strategy

Ex­am­ples of Miti­gat­ing As­sump­tion Risk

Mak­ing Ex­cep­tions to Gen­eral Rules

Me­gapro­ject management

Skill and leverage