It seems like keeping a part ‘outside’ the experience/feeling is a big part for you. Does that sound right? (Similar to the unblending Kaj talks about in his IFS post or clearing a space in Focusing)

Now of course today’s structure/process is tomorrow’s content

Do you mean here that as you progress, you will introspect on the nature of your previous introspections, rather than more ‘object-level’ thoughts and feelings?

Yes, you’re quite right!

The intuition becomes a little clearer when I take the following alternative derivation:

Let us look at the change in expected value when I increase my capabilities. From the expected value stemming from worlds where I win, we have (p∗q)′=p′∗q+p∗q′. For the other actor, their probability of winning decreases at a rate that matches my increase in probability of winning. Also, their probability of deploying a safe AI doesn’t change. So the change in expected value stemming fro m worlds where they win is −p′∗r∗q.

We should be indifferent to increasing capabilities when these sum to 0, so p′∗q+p∗q′=p′∗r∗q.

Let’s choose our units so km=1. Then, using the expressions for q′ from your comment, we have rq0p′0=p′0q0+p0q0(r−1).

Dividing through by q0 we get rp′0=p′0+p0(r−1). Collecting like terms we have (r−1)∗p′0=p0∗(r−1) and thus p′0=p0. Substituting for p′0 we have 12−p0=p0 and thus p0=14