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Alvin Ånestrand

Karma: 224

Author of the Forecasting AI Futures blog. Constantly thinking about the potentials and risks of future AI systems.

Will AI Progress Ac­cel­er­ate or Slow Down? Pro­ject­ing METR Time Horizons

Alvin Ånestrand16 Mar 2026 11:54 UTC
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Alvin Ånes­trand’s Shortform

Alvin Ånestrand4 Mar 2026 16:55 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Dawn of AI Scheming

Alvin Ånestrand27 Feb 2026 17:24 UTC
19 points
0 comments59 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Can Hard­ware Save Us from Soft­ware?

Alvin Ånestrand9 Feb 2026 11:57 UTC
23 points
2 comments12 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Why Fu­ture AIs will Re­quire New Align­ment Methods

Alvin Ånestrand10 Oct 2025 14:27 UTC
17 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

AI and Biolog­i­cal Risk: Fore­cast­ing Key Ca­pa­bil­ity Thresholds

Alvin Ånestrand2 Oct 2025 14:06 UTC
7 points
4 comments11 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

The ul­ti­mate goal

Alvin Ånestrand5 Jul 2025 19:10 UTC
10 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing AI Forecasting

Alvin Ånestrand23 Jun 2025 13:39 UTC
15 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Pow­er­ful Predictions

Alvin Ånestrand5 Jun 2025 10:44 UTC
2 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

AI 2027 - Rogue Repli­ca­tion Timeline

Alvin Ånestrand30 May 2025 13:46 UTC
41 points
3 comments7 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

What if Agent-4 breaks out?

Alvin Ånestrand15 May 2025 9:15 UTC
12 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

An­ti­ci­pat­ing AI: Keep­ing Up With What We Build

Alvin Ånestrand24 Apr 2025 15:23 UTC
2 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Emer­gent Misal­ign­ment and Emer­gent Alignment

Alvin Ånestrand3 Apr 2025 8:04 UTC
5 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Fu­tures Re­source Hub

Alvin Ånestrand19 Mar 2025 17:26 UTC
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Mus­ings on Sce­nario Fore­cast­ing and AI

Alvin Ånestrand6 Mar 2025 12:28 UTC
10 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing Un­con­trol­led Spread of AI

Alvin Ånestrand22 Feb 2025 13:05 UTC
2 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Prob­a­bil­ity of AI-Caused Disaster

Alvin Ånestrand12 Feb 2025 19:40 UTC
2 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing AGI: In­sights from Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets and Metaculus

Alvin Ånestrand4 Feb 2025 13:03 UTC
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

The Align­ment Map­ping Pro­gram: Forg­ing In­de­pen­dent Thinkers in AI Safety—A Pilot Retrospective

Alvin Ånestrand, Jonas Hallgren and Utilop
10 Jan 2025 16:22 UTC
31 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Effi­cient Learn­ing: Memorization

Alvin Ånestrand16 Apr 2023 17:58 UTC
4 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)