Plan­ning & De­ci­sion-Making

How to Mea­sure Anything

De­ci­sion Anal­y­sis Sequence

Notes on Resolve

Plan­ning Fallacy

Plans are Re­cur­sive & Why This is Important

Leaky Del­e­ga­tion: You are not a Commodity

A challenge for AGI or­ga­ni­za­tions, and a challenge for readers

The cor­rect re­sponse to un­cer­tainty is *not* half-speed

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

Notes on Industriousness

Chap­ter 6: The Plan­ning Fallacy

If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

In Search of Strate­gic Clarity

Si­mu­late and Defer To More Ra­tional Selves

Plans Are Pre­dic­tions, Not Op­ti­miza­tion Targets

Should you have chil­dren? A de­ci­sion frame­work for a cru­cial life choice that af­fects your­self, your child and the world

Mea­sures, Risk, Death, and War

In­de­ci­sion and in­ter­nal­ized au­thor­ity figures

Com­press­ing Real­ity to Math

Ap­prais­ing ag­grega­tivism and utilitarianism

Ag­grega­tive prin­ci­ples ap­prox­i­mate util­i­tar­ian principles

Any-Benefit Mind­set and Any-Rea­son Reasoning

Exquisite Or­a­cle: A Dadaist-In­spired Liter­ary Game for Many Friends (or 1 AI)

Fluent, Cruxy Predictions

Sta­bi­lize-Reflect-Execute

A Golden Age of Build­ing? Ex­cerpts and les­sons from Em­pire State, Pen­tagon, Skunk Works and SpaceX

Ex­er­cise: Plan­mak­ing, Sur­prise An­ti­ci­pa­tion, and “Baba is You”

Value load­ing in the hu­man brain: a worked example

Value of In­for­ma­tion: Four Examples

Es­say­ing Other Plans

What are the most com­mon and im­por­tant trade-offs that de­ci­sion mak­ers face?

Non-re­solve as Resolve

The Prac­tice & Virtue of Discernment

Happy paths and the plan­ning fallacy

5 Ax­ioms of De­ci­sion Making

nos­talge­braist: Re­cur­sive Good­hart’s Law

Deon­tol­ogy and virtue ethics as “effec­tive the­o­ries” of con­se­quen­tial­ist ethics

Prompts for Big-Pic­ture Planning

Liv­ing in Many Worlds

Dice De­ci­sion Making

Why Plan­ning is Hard: A Mul­ti­faceted Model

Ag­grega­tive Prin­ci­ples of So­cial Justice

The Power to Judge Startup Ideas

Me­gapro­ject management

What I got out of ‘Al­gorithms to Live By’

Bias in cap­i­tal pro­ject de­ci­sion making

Fore­cast your 2024 with Fatebook

Write a busi­ness plan already

Ab­stract Plans Lead to Failure

Straw­man Yourself

Your in­ner Google

Train­ing Regime Day 14: Traf­fic Jams

Readi­ness Heuristics

How To Ac­tu­ally Succeed

Train­ing Regime Day 10: Systemization

In­tro­duc­ing The Long Game Pro­ject: Im­prov­ing De­ci­sion-Mak­ing Through Table­top Ex­er­cises and Si­mu­lated Experience

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Sce­nario Map­ping Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion (*Closed*)

The Art of the Overbet

The Per­sonal Im­pli­ca­tions of AGI Realism

Recom­men­da­tions vs. Guidelines

Mak­ing Bad De­ci­sions On Purpose

Meta AI (FAIR) lat­est pa­per in­te­grates sys­tem-1 and sys­tem-2 think­ing into rea­son­ing mod­els.

In­stru­men­tal Ra­tion­al­ity 2: Plan­ning 101

ParaS­copes: Do Lan­guage Models Plan the Up­com­ing Para­graph?

Tak­ing into ac­count prefer­ences of past selves

You Are Be­ing Underpaid

Train­ing Regime Day 20: OODA Loop

The value of low-con­scien­tious­ness peo­ple on teams

[Aspira­tion-based de­signs] 2. For­mal frame­work, ba­sic algorithm

Four ways I’ve made bad decisions

How evolu­tion­ary lineages of LLMs can plan their own fu­ture and act on these plans

[Question] What Should I Do To­day?

How time track­ing can help you prioritize

De­ci­sion mak­ing un­der model am­bi­guity, moral un­cer­tainty, and other agents with free will?

Coun­ter­in­tu­itive Com­par­a­tive Advantage

In­tro­duc­tion to Modern Dat­ing: Strate­gic Dat­ing Ad­vice for be­gin­ners

min­i­mum vi­able action

Dremeling

“Backchain­ing” in Strategy

[Question] What are a ra­tio­nal­ist’s best tools for bet­ter de­ci­sion mak­ing?

Be more effec­tive by learn­ing im­por­tant prac­ti­cal knowl­edge us­ing flashcards

Heuris­tics for pre­vent­ing ma­jor life mistakes

The Align­ment Map­ping Pro­gram: Forg­ing In­de­pen­dent Thinkers in AI Safety—A Pilot Retrospective

The Ul­ti­mate Step-by-Step Hiring Playbook

De­cid­ing What Pro­ject/​Org to Start: A Guide to Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Research

On Not Hav­ing an Ad­vance Abyssal Plan

Do­ing “Noth­ing”

Harder Choices Mat­ter Less

Skill and leverage

The Way You Go Depends A Good Deal On Where You Want To Get: FEP min­i­mizes sur­prise about ac­tions us­ing prefer­ences about the fu­ture as *ev­i­dence*

Time Biases

Uncertainty

How & when to write a busi­ness plan

On Pro­cras­ti­na­tion—The art of shap­ing your fu­ture actions

Critch on ca­reer ad­vice for ju­nior AI-x-risk-con­cerned researchers

OpenAI’s Align­ment Plan is not S.M.A.R.T.

On char­ac­ter­iz­ing heavy-tailedness

Try­ing to Try

Model-Based Policy Anal­y­sis un­der Deep Uncertainty

Mak­ing Ex­cep­tions to Gen­eral Rules

[Question] Why are peo­ple so bad at dat­ing?

Opt out from the Funni

I’m go­ing to help you quit Face­book with some science

FDT Does Not En­dorse It­self in Asym­met­ric Games

How to reach 80% of your goals. Ex­actly 80%.

[Question] How did you first un­der­stand cog­ni­tive bi­ases? Look­ing for com­mu­nity experiences

The Meta-Re­cur­sive Trap in New­comb’s Para­dox and Millen­nium Problems

The First Step is to Ad­mit That You Have a Problem

Ur­gent & im­por­tant: How (not) to do your to-do list

The ap­pli­ca­tion of the sec­re­tary prob­lem to real life dating

The Real Rules Have No Exceptions

Four Scopes Of Advice

Re­boot­ing AI Gover­nance: An AI-Driven Ap­proach to AI Governance

Why it feels like ev­ery­thing is a trade-off

Be less scared of overconfidence

Har­dened Prob­lems Make Brit­tle Models

The Art of Crit­i­cal De­ci­sion Making

Kids or No kids

Four kinds of problems

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

What Makes My At­tempt Spe­cial?

Out to Get You

TDT for Humans

Com­ing Out

[Question] How to make plans?

Ex­am­ples of Miti­gat­ing As­sump­tion Risk

Why Peo­ple in Poverty Make Bad Decisions

De­ci­sion-Mak­ing Un­der Uncer­tainty: Les­sons From AI

Com­ple­tion Estimates

Be­ware of Fake Alternatives