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Plan­ning & De­ci­sion-Making

Tag

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprog7 Aug 2013 4:05 UTC
117 points
55 comments22 min readLW link

De­ci­sion Anal­y­sis Sequence

Vaniver21 Dec 2011 0:12 UTC
42 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Notes on Resolve

David Gross9 Sep 2022 16:42 UTC
9 points
1 comment31 min readLW link

Plan­ning Fallacy

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Sep 2007 7:06 UTC
169 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

Plans are Re­cur­sive & Why This is Important

Ruby10 Mar 2019 1:58 UTC
65 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

Leaky Del­e­ga­tion: You are not a Commodity

Darmani25 Jan 2021 2:04 UTC
296 points
34 comments15 min readLW link1 review

A challenge for AGI or­ga­ni­za­tions, and a challenge for readers

1 Dec 2022 23:11 UTC
299 points
33 comments2 min readLW link

Notes on Industriousness

David Gross3 Nov 2020 1:55 UTC
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Si­mu­late and Defer To More Ra­tional Selves

LoganStrohl17 Sep 2014 18:11 UTC
211 points
114 comments5 min readLW link

In Search of Strate­gic Clarity

james.lucassen8 Jul 2022 0:52 UTC
9 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

Scott Alexander3 Sep 2017 20:56 UTC
68 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Sep 2007 16:39 UTC
37 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

The cor­rect re­sponse to un­cer­tainty is *not* half-speed

AnnaSalamon15 Jan 2016 22:55 UTC
255 points
45 comments3 min readLW link

Chap­ter 6: The Plan­ning Fallacy

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC
63 points
5 comments32 min readLW link

Why Plan­ning is Hard: A Mul­ti­faceted Model

Ruby31 Mar 2019 2:33 UTC
30 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

Liv­ing in Many Worlds

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Jun 2008 2:24 UTC
59 points
80 comments5 min readLW link

Sta­bi­lize-Reflect-Execute

ozziegooen28 Nov 2018 17:26 UTC
30 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Dice De­ci­sion Making

Bart Bussmann10 Mar 2023 13:01 UTC
18 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Plans Are Pre­dic­tions, Not Op­ti­miza­tion Targets

johnswentworth20 Oct 2022 21:17 UTC
105 points
20 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Value load­ing in the hu­man brain: a worked example

Steven Byrnes4 Aug 2021 17:20 UTC
45 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Happy paths and the plan­ning fallacy

Adam Zerner18 Jul 2021 23:26 UTC
38 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Deon­tol­ogy and virtue ethics as “effec­tive the­o­ries” of con­se­quen­tial­ist ethics

Jan_Kulveit17 Nov 2022 14:11 UTC
63 points
9 comments1 min readLW link1 review

Com­press­ing Real­ity to Math

Vaniver15 Dec 2011 0:07 UTC
34 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

The Prac­tice & Virtue of Discernment

ozziegooen26 May 2021 0:34 UTC
41 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

5 Ax­ioms of De­ci­sion Making

Vaniver1 Dec 2011 22:22 UTC
50 points
63 comments5 min readLW link

A Golden Age of Build­ing? Ex­cerpts and les­sons from Em­pire State, Pen­tagon, Skunk Works and SpaceX

jacobjacob1 Sep 2023 4:03 UTC
181 points
23 comments24 min readLW link

Mea­sures, Risk, Death, and War

Vaniver20 Dec 2011 23:37 UTC
17 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

Value of In­for­ma­tion: Four Examples

Vaniver22 Nov 2011 23:02 UTC
136 points
58 comments10 min readLW link

What are the most com­mon and im­por­tant trade-offs that de­ci­sion mak­ers face?

Andy_McKenzie3 Nov 2014 5:03 UTC
13 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

Exquisite Or­a­cle: A Dadaist-In­spired Liter­ary Game for Many Friends (or 1 AI)

Yitz26 Jan 2023 18:26 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

nos­talge­braist: Re­cur­sive Good­hart’s Law

Kaj_Sotala26 Aug 2020 11:07 UTC
53 points
27 comments1 min readLW link
(nostalgebraist.tumblr.com)

Non-re­solve as Resolve

Linda Linsefors10 Jul 2018 23:31 UTC
15 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Harder Choices Mat­ter Less

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Aug 2008 2:02 UTC
54 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

On char­ac­ter­iz­ing heavy-tailedness

Jsevillamol16 Feb 2020 0:14 UTC
38 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Why it feels like ev­ery­thing is a trade-off

Sunny from QAD18 Jul 2019 1:33 UTC
35 points
15 comments4 min readLW link

How time track­ing can help you prioritize

lynettebye16 Dec 2019 17:07 UTC
32 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Ur­gent & im­por­tant: How (not) to do your to-do list

bfinn1 Feb 2019 17:44 UTC
49 points
20 comments13 min readLW link

Do­ing “Noth­ing”

Voltairina29 Mar 2012 23:17 UTC
42 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

What I got out of ‘Al­gorithms to Live By’

rk11 Apr 2018 16:35 UTC
26 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Time Biases

PeterMcCluskey12 Jan 2019 21:35 UTC
30 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

In­tro­duc­ing The Long Game Pro­ject: Im­prov­ing De­ci­sion-Mak­ing Through Table­top Ex­er­cises and Si­mu­lated Experience

Dan Stuart13 Jun 2023 21:45 UTC
4 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Train­ing Regime Day 10: Systemization

Mark Xu24 Feb 2020 17:20 UTC
13 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Train­ing Regime Day 14: Traf­fic Jams

Mark Xu28 Feb 2020 17:52 UTC
10 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Train­ing Regime Day 20: OODA Loop

Mark Xu24 Apr 2020 18:11 UTC
25 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

In­stru­men­tal Ra­tion­al­ity 2: Plan­ning 101

lifelonglearner6 Oct 2017 14:23 UTC
17 points
4 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] How to make plans?

Pee Doom23 Apr 2019 8:29 UTC
23 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Heuris­tics for pre­vent­ing ma­jor life mistakes

SK220 Dec 2023 8:01 UTC
28 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Model-Based Policy Anal­y­sis un­der Deep Uncertainty

Max Reddel6 Aug 2023 14:07 UTC
14 points
1 comment23 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Re­boot­ing AI Gover­nance: An AI-Driven Ap­proach to AI Governance

Max Reddel6 Aug 2023 14:19 UTC
1 point
1 comment29 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

How to reach 80% of your goals. Ex­actly 80%.

Bart Bussmann10 Oct 2020 17:33 UTC
36 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

On Not Hav­ing an Ad­vance Abyssal Plan

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Feb 2009 20:20 UTC
31 points
43 comments4 min readLW link

Ab­stract Plans Lead to Failure

Chris_Leong27 Feb 2020 21:20 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Art of Crit­i­cal De­ci­sion Making

PhilGoetz17 Apr 2009 1:54 UTC
−2 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Readi­ness Heuristics

jimrandomh15 Jun 2009 1:53 UTC
22 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

The ap­pli­ca­tion of the sec­re­tary prob­lem to real life dating

Elo29 Sep 2015 22:28 UTC
7 points
48 comments6 min readLW link

Com­ing Out

cousin_it25 Jun 2009 16:16 UTC
12 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are a ra­tio­nal­ist’s best tools for bet­ter de­ci­sion mak­ing?

acomeyer25 Feb 2021 22:06 UTC
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Write a busi­ness plan already

bfinn25 Mar 2021 0:13 UTC
17 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

How & when to write a busi­ness plan

bfinn15 Apr 2021 15:45 UTC
13 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Straw­man Yourself

katydee18 May 2014 5:28 UTC
28 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

The value of low-con­scien­tious­ness peo­ple on teams

CraigMichael14 Jun 2021 2:06 UTC
60 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

Uncertainty

Vaniver29 Nov 2011 23:12 UTC
27 points
15 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What Should I Do To­day?

Cui18 Mar 2022 16:36 UTC
10 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Sce­nario Map­ping Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion (*Closed*)

Kakili27 Apr 2022 22:07 UTC
10 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

The Ul­ti­mate Step-by-Step Hiring Playbook

intellectronica11 Sep 2022 14:39 UTC
8 points
2 comments4 min readLW link
(www.intellectronica.net)

How To Ac­tu­ally Succeed

Jordan Arel13 Sep 2022 0:21 UTC
2 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Opt out from the Funni

Coafos24 Sep 2022 22:07 UTC
8 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Be more effec­tive by learn­ing im­por­tant prac­ti­cal knowl­edge us­ing flashcards

Stenemo12 Oct 2022 18:05 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion mak­ing un­der model am­bi­guity, moral un­cer­tainty, and other agents with free will?

Jobst Heitzig13 Nov 2022 12:50 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Be less scared of overconfidence

benkuhn30 Nov 2022 15:20 UTC
163 points
22 comments9 min readLW link
(www.benkuhn.net)

How evolu­tion­ary lineages of LLMs can plan their own fu­ture and act on these plans

Roman Leventov25 Dec 2022 18:11 UTC
39 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

OpenAI’s Align­ment Plan is not S.M.A.R.T.

Søren Elverlin18 Jan 2023 6:39 UTC
9 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Be­ware of Fake Alternatives

silentbob31 Jan 2023 10:21 UTC
50 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Heuris­tics on bias to ac­tion ver­sus sta­tus quo?

Farkas28 Feb 2023 12:45 UTC
4 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast your 2024 with Fatebook

Sage Future5 Jan 2024 14:07 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(fatebook.io)

You Are Be­ing Underpaid

RobertM15 Apr 2018 6:28 UTC
29 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

De­cid­ing What Pro­ject/​Org to Start: A Guide to Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Research

Alexandra Bos30 Jan 2024 18:13 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Mak­ing Bad De­ci­sions On Purpose

Screwtape9 Nov 2023 3:36 UTC
48 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Kids or No kids

Kids or no kids14 Nov 2023 18:37 UTC
89 points
10 comments13 min readLW link

Recom­men­da­tions vs. Guidelines

Scott Alexander13 Apr 2018 4:10 UTC
72 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Out to Get You

Zvi23 Sep 2017 10:50 UTC
104 points
13 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Your in­ner Google

PhilGoetz16 Sep 2011 6:56 UTC
160 points
70 comments1 min readLW link

The Real Rules Have No Exceptions

Said Achmiz23 Jul 2019 3:38 UTC
129 points
57 comments1 min readLW link2 reviews

The Power to Judge Startup Ideas

Liron4 Sep 2019 15:07 UTC
93 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

Xachariah3 May 2012 1:35 UTC
135 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Try­ing to Try

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Oct 2008 8:58 UTC
206 points
58 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Why are peo­ple so bad at dat­ing?

Xodarap28 Oct 2019 14:32 UTC
64 points
61 comments2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­in­tu­itive Com­par­a­tive Advantage

Wei Dai28 Nov 2018 20:33 UTC
84 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Dremeling

Czynski14 Jul 2020 19:23 UTC
35 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

I’m go­ing to help you quit Face­book with some science

Elo12 Apr 2018 3:09 UTC
30 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

Critch on ca­reer ad­vice for ju­nior AI-x-risk-con­cerned researchers

Rob Bensinger12 May 2018 2:13 UTC
118 points
25 comments4 min readLW link

TDT for Humans

alkjash28 Feb 2018 5:40 UTC
26 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

The Art of the Overbet

Zvi19 Oct 2018 14:00 UTC
55 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The First Step is to Ad­mit That You Have a Problem

Alicorn6 Oct 2009 20:59 UTC
77 points
87 comments3 min readLW link

On Pro­cras­ti­na­tion—The art of shap­ing your fu­ture actions

Neel Nanda1 Aug 2020 10:22 UTC
10 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.neelnanda.io)

“Backchain­ing” in Strategy

Davis_Kingsley9 Feb 2018 12:01 UTC
23 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­am­ples of Miti­gat­ing As­sump­tion Risk

SatvikBeri30 Nov 2017 2:09 UTC
26 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Mak­ing Ex­cep­tions to Gen­eral Rules

Chris_Leong17 Jan 2018 23:47 UTC
22 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

Me­gapro­ject management

ryan_b11 Jan 2019 17:08 UTC
55 points
11 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Skill and leverage

KatjaGrace3 Nov 2019 21:10 UTC
49 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.com)

Four kinds of problems

jacobjacob21 Aug 2018 23:01 UTC
35 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Four Scopes Of Advice

namespace23 Oct 2017 9:01 UTC
20 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Bias in cap­i­tal pro­ject de­ci­sion making

jsalvatier26 May 2011 18:06 UTC
56 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

Har­dened Prob­lems Make Brit­tle Models

cousin_it6 May 2009 18:31 UTC
58 points
40 comments1 min readLW link

What Makes My At­tempt Spe­cial?

Andy_McKenzie26 Sep 2010 6:55 UTC
43 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
No comments.