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Bayes’ Theorem

TagLast edit: Feb 19, 2024, 5:40 AM by Ben Pace

Bayes’ Theorem (also known as Bayes’ Law) is a law of probability that describes the proper way to incorporate new evidence into prior probabilities to form an updated probability estimate. It is commonly regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty. Bayes Theorem is named after Reverend Thomas Bayes who proved the theorem in 1763.

Bayes’ theorem commonly takes the form:

where A is the proposition of interest, B is the observed evidence, P(A) and P(B) are prior probabilities, and P(A|B) is the posterior probability of A.

With the posterior odds, the prior odds and the likelihood ratio written explicitly, the theorem reads:

Visualisation of Bayes’ Rule

Bayes.png

An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Bayes’s Theorem

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 1, 2003, 8:00 PM
73 points

51 votes

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Rad­i­cal Probabilism

abramdemskiAug 18, 2020, 9:14 PM
185 points

63 votes

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A Tech­ni­cal Ex­pla­na­tion of Tech­ni­cal Explanation

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 1, 2005, 8:00 AM
75 points

30 votes

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a vi­sual ex­pla­na­tion of Bayesian updating

Jan Christian RefsgaardMay 8, 2021, 7:45 PM
21 points

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(www.badprior.com)

The Equa­tion of Knowledge

Lê Nguyên HoangJul 7, 2020, 4:09 PM
58 points

29 votes

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The Moun­tain Troll

lsusrJun 11, 2022, 9:14 AM
105 points

64 votes

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It’s Bayes All The Way Up

Scott AlexanderSep 12, 2016, 1:35 PM
35 points

27 votes

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Bayes’ The­o­rem Illus­trated (My Way)

komponistoJun 3, 2010, 4:40 AM
173 points

156 votes

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Anec­dotes Can Be Strong Ev­i­dence and Bayes The­o­rem Proves It

FCCCMar 13, 2022, 4:06 AM
16 points

11 votes

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E.T. Jaynes Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The logic of Science I

Dec 27, 2023, 11:47 PM
64 points

34 votes

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A Bayesian Ag­gre­ga­tion Paradox

JsevillamolNov 22, 2021, 10:39 AM
87 points

33 votes

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Bayesian Utility: Rep­re­sent­ing Prefer­ence by Prob­a­bil­ity Measures

Vladimir_NesovJul 27, 2009, 2:28 PM
50 points

25 votes

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Strong Ev­i­dence is Common

Mark XuMar 13, 2021, 10:04 PM
275 points

157 votes

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Towards a Bayesian model for Em­piri­cal Science

Yair HalberstadtOct 7, 2021, 5:38 AM
11 points

4 votes

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Mini-re­view: ‘Prov­ing His­tory: Bayes’ The­o­rem and the Quest for the His­tor­i­cal Je­sus’

lukeprogFeb 1, 2012, 7:20 PM
26 points

24 votes

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The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

TCBMay 21, 2011, 2:41 AM
63 points

44 votes

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Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The Logic of Science, Jaynes

David UdellFeb 16, 2023, 9:57 PM
29 points

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In­tro­duc­ing bayescalc.io

Adele LopezJul 7, 2023, 4:11 PM
116 points

51 votes

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Are Bayesian meth­ods guaran­teed to overfit?

Ege ErdilJun 17, 2023, 12:52 PM
52 points

24 votes

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Bayes’ the­o­rem, plau­si­ble de­ni­a­bil­ity, and smiley faces

Adam ZernerApr 11, 2021, 8:41 PM
24 points

9 votes

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Very Short In­tro­duc­tion to Bayesian Model Com­par­i­son

johnswentworthJul 16, 2019, 7:48 PM
32 points

13 votes

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5 comments1 min readLW link

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprogAug 7, 2013, 4:05 AM
121 points

90 votes

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What can we learn from Bayes about rea­son­ing?

jasoncrawfordMay 5, 2023, 3:52 PM
22 points

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Why Bayes? A Wise Ruling

VaniverFeb 25, 2013, 3:52 PM
18 points

36 votes

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A quan­tum equiv­a­lent to Bayes’ rule

dr_sAug 31, 2025, 10:06 AM
51 points

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A His­tory of Bayes’ Theorem

lukeprogAug 29, 2011, 7:04 AM
76 points

67 votes

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[Question] What are prin­ci­pled ways for pe­nal­is­ing com­plex­ity in prac­tice?

BuckyJun 27, 2019, 7:28 AM
36 points

11 votes

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Base Rates and Refer­ence Classes

jsteinhardtNov 24, 2021, 10:30 PM
20 points

9 votes

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Non-com­mu­ni­ca­ble Evidence

Adam ZernerNov 17, 2015, 3:46 AM
16 points

16 votes

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“Friends do not let friends com­pute p val­ues.”

lukeprogSep 9, 2011, 7:10 AM
15 points

8 votes

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What is Bayesi­anism?

Kaj_SotalaFeb 26, 2010, 7:43 AM
120 points

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Learn Bayes Nets!

abramdemskiMar 27, 2018, 10:00 PM
54 points

34 votes

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[Question] Change My Mind: Thirders in “Sleep­ing Beauty” are Just Do­ing Episte­mol­ogy Wrong

DragonGodOct 16, 2024, 10:20 AM
8 points

19 votes

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Kal­man Filter for Bayesians

SatvikBeriOct 22, 2018, 5:06 PM
51 points

21 votes

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My Bayesian Enlightenment

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 5, 2008, 4:45 PM
73 points

58 votes

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De­co­her­ence is Falsifi­able and Testable

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 7, 2008, 7:54 AM
48 points

44 votes

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Bayesi­anism for hu­mans: “prob­a­ble enough”

BT_UytyaSep 2, 2014, 9:44 PM
52 points

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What Bayesi­anism taught me

Tyrrell_McAllisterAug 12, 2013, 6:59 AM
114 points

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What’s so spe­cial about like­li­hoods?

mfattAug 10, 2024, 1:07 AM
6 points

3 votes

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The role of Bayesian ML in AI safety—an overview

Marius HobbhahnJan 27, 2023, 7:40 PM
31 points

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If It’s Worth Do­ing, It’s Worth Do­ing With Made-Up Statistics

Scott AlexanderSep 3, 2017, 8:56 PM
84 points

53 votes

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Search­ing for Bayes-Structure

Eliezer YudkowskyFeb 28, 2008, 10:01 PM
69 points

59 votes

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Rad­i­cal Prob­a­bil­ism [Tran­script]

Jun 26, 2020, 10:14 PM
48 points

17 votes

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Re­port like­li­hood ratios

Ege ErdilApr 23, 2022, 5:10 PM
80 points

27 votes

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The Case for Fre­quen­tism: Why Bayesian Prob­a­bil­ity is Fun­da­men­tally Un­sound and What Science Does Instead

lsusrApr 3, 2022, 8:52 PM
22 points

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I Fi­nally Worked Through Bayes’ The­o­rem (Per­sonal Achieve­ment)

keltanDec 5, 2024, 2:04 AM
53 points

30 votes

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Nav­i­gat­ing dis­agree­ment: How to keep your eye on the ev­i­dence

AnnaSalamonApr 24, 2010, 10:47 PM
47 points

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The Me­chan­ics of Disagreement

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 10, 2008, 2:01 PM
14 points

10 votes

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nos­talge­braist—bayes: a kinda-sorta masterpost

Kaj_SotalaSep 4, 2018, 11:08 AM
25 points

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Bayes’ The­o­rem in three pictures

Sunny from QADJul 21, 2019, 7:01 AM
30 points

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An­thropic rea­son­ing isn’t magic

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 1, 2017, 8:57 AM
22 points

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[Question] How do Bayesi­ans tell what does and doesn’t count as ev­i­dence (which, e.g., hy­pothe­ses may ren­der more or less prob­a­ble if true)? Is it pos­si­ble for some­thing to fuzzily-be ev­i­dence?

LVSNNov 30, 2021, 12:52 PM
2 points

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Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Cer­tain That 53 Is Prime

ChrisHallquistNov 7, 2013, 7:45 AM
95 points

60 votes

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Bayesian Sce­nario: Snipers & Soldiers

abstractapplicFeb 26, 2023, 9:48 PM
23 points

10 votes

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Against strong bayesianism

Richard_NgoApr 30, 2020, 10:48 AM
69 points

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Bayes Questions

BuckyNov 7, 2018, 4:54 PM
21 points

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Black ravens and red herrings

Matthew BarnettJul 27, 2021, 5:46 PM
52 points

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Ab­solute Authority

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 8, 2008, 3:33 AM
117 points

106 votes

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Prob­a­bil­ity is in the Mind

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 12, 2008, 4:08 AM
143 points

121 votes

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against that one ra­tio­nal­ist mashal about japanese fifth-columnists

FraserJul 13, 2025, 1:42 AM
72 points

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Au­mann’s Agree­ment Revisited

agilecavemanAug 27, 2018, 6:21 AM
6 points

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Bayesian examination

Lê Nguyên HoangDec 9, 2019, 7:50 PM
86 points

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Fal­la­cies as weak Bayesian evidence

Kaj_SotalaMar 18, 2012, 3:53 AM
90 points

74 votes

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Bayes for Schizophren­ics: Rea­son­ing in Delu­sional Disorders

Scott AlexanderAug 13, 2012, 7:22 PM
154 points

116 votes

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The Bayesian Tyrant

abramdemskiAug 20, 2020, 12:08 AM
144 points

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Idea on Bayes’ Theorem

BJ3383Jul 2, 2025, 7:27 PM
3 points

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Ep­silon is not a prob­a­bil­ity, it’s a cop-out

ShmiFeb 15, 2022, 2:48 AM
22 points

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Bayes Rule Applied

Gordon Seidoh WorleyFeb 16, 2018, 6:30 PM
4 points

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Beau­tiful Probability

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 14, 2008, 7:19 AM
117 points

83 votes

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Kelly bettors

DanielFilanNov 13, 2018, 12:40 AM
24 points

8 votes

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Bayesian in­fer­ence with­out priors

DanielFilanApr 24, 2024, 11:50 PM
26 points

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Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

XiXiDuOct 10, 2010, 2:54 PM
169 points

136 votes

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Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikosDec 12, 2022, 10:09 AM
2 points

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Beyond Bayesi­ans and Frequentists

jsteinhardtOct 31, 2012, 7:03 AM
55 points

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[Link] New SEP ar­ti­cle on Bayesian Epistemology

Aryeh EnglanderJun 13, 2022, 3:03 PM
6 points

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Bayesian Prob­a­bil­ity is for things that are Space-like Separated from You

Scott GarrabrantJul 10, 2018, 11:47 PM
87 points

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Prob­a­bil­ity Space & Au­mann Agreement

Wei DaiDec 10, 2009, 9:57 PM
53 points

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In­ter­ac­tive Bayes The­o­rem Visualization

Allen KimMar 3, 2018, 4:00 AM
15 points

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[Question] al­ter­na­tive his­tory: what if Bayes rule had never been dis­cov­ered?

Yoav RavidMay 11, 2019, 7:29 AM
7 points

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Fun­da­men­tal Uncer­tainty: Chap­ter 3 - Why don’t we agree on what’s right?

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJun 25, 2022, 5:50 PM
27 points

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Bayesi­anism for Humans

ChrisHallquistOct 29, 2013, 11:54 PM
92 points

66 votes

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Qual­i­ta­tively Confused

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 14, 2008, 5:01 PM
71 points

57 votes

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Bayes’ Law is About Mul­ti­ple Hy­poth­e­sis Testing

abramdemskiMay 4, 2018, 5:31 AM
36 points

26 votes

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Bayesian Evolv­ing-to-Extinction

abramdemskiFeb 14, 2020, 11:55 PM
44 points

20 votes

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Un­der­stand­ing Sub­jec­tive Probabilities

Isaac KingDec 10, 2023, 6:03 AM
31 points

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Bayes’ rule =/​= Bayesian inference

neq1Sep 16, 2010, 6:34 AM
49 points

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When ap­par­ently pos­i­tive ev­i­dence can be nega­tive evidence

cataOct 20, 2022, 9:47 PM
32 points

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Buck­ets & Bayes

Duncan Sabien (Inactive)Dec 20, 2021, 5:54 AM
34 points

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Prob­lems with Bayesi­anism: A So­cratic Dialogue

B JacobsApr 22, 2025, 2:09 PM
3 points

6 votes

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(bobjacobs.substack.com)

Are dogs bad?

qbolecMar 11, 2021, 8:11 AM
18 points

9 votes

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Ein­stein’s Arrogance

Eliezer YudkowskySep 25, 2007, 1:29 AM
195 points

166 votes

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An Opinionated Guide to P-Values

amitlevy49Jun 1, 2025, 11:48 AM
11 points

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Com­men­su­rable Scien­tific Paradigms; or, com­putable induction

samshapApr 13, 2022, 12:01 AM
14 points

4 votes

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Ex­per­i­ments are in the ter­ri­tory, re­sults are in the map

TahpDec 6, 2024, 3:44 PM
5 points

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Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Evidence

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 13, 2007, 3:55 PM
301 points

249 votes

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[Question] Can Bayes the­o­rem rep­re­sent in­finite con­fu­sion?

Yoav RavidMar 22, 2019, 6:02 PM
4 points

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In­finite Certainty

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 9, 2008, 6:49 AM
93 points

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[Funny] Even Clippy can be blamed on the use of non-Bayesian methods

lukeprogOct 2, 2011, 7:40 AM
41 points

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A Re­view of In-Con­text Learn­ing Hy­pothe­ses for Au­to­mated AI Align­ment Research

alamertonApr 18, 2024, 6:29 PM
25 points

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[Question] Best way to ask laypeo­ple for con­di­tional prob­a­bil­ities in a Bayes net?

Zack FriedmanJul 19, 2025, 2:45 AM
11 points

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The med­i­cal test para­dox: Can re­design­ing Bayes rule help?

habrykaDec 24, 2020, 10:08 PM
34 points

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Against NHST

gwernDec 21, 2012, 4:45 AM
94 points

66 votes

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In­tro­duc­tion To The In­fra-Bayesi­anism Sequence

Aug 26, 2020, 8:31 PM
111 points

49 votes

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An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Eliezer Yud­kowsky’s In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Bayes’ Theorem

AlexandrosDec 18, 2010, 1:26 PM
24 points

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[Question] What’s the big deal about Bayes’ The­o­rem?

AVoropaevJan 26, 2021, 6:08 AM
22 points

9 votes

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Dreams with Da­m­aged Priors

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 8, 2009, 10:31 PM
60 points

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The Ja­panese Quiz: a Thought Ex­per­i­ment of Statis­ti­cal Epistemology

DanBApr 8, 2021, 5:37 PM
11 points

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An at­tempt to break cir­cu­lar­ity in science

fryolysisJul 15, 2022, 6:32 PM
3 points

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How do you ac­tu­ally ob­tain and re­port a like­li­hood func­tion for sci­en­tific re­search?

Peter BerggrenFeb 11, 2024, 5:42 PM
55 points

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Fre­quen­tist vs Bayesian break­down: in­ter­pre­ta­tion vs inference

AcademianAug 30, 2011, 3:58 PM
36 points

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Dutch Books and De­ci­sion The­ory: An In­tro­duc­tion to a Long Conversation

JackDec 21, 2010, 4:55 AM
30 points

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In­ter­pret­ing Di­ag­nos­tic Tests

TornusOct 15, 2021, 2:58 AM
6 points

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King David’s %: Estab­lish­ing a new sym­bol for Bayesian prob­a­bil­ity.

Paul LoganJun 26, 2022, 7:47 PM
−11 points

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Fre­quen­tist Statis­tics are Fre­quently Subjective

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 4, 2009, 8:22 PM
87 points

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Straw­berry Causal Fields For­ever: Prov­ing (or Icarus­ing) Unified Causal Field The­ory, the Fi­nal Fron­tier of Causality

Cognitive JewometryJul 26, 2025, 6:29 PM
1 point

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Lev­er­ag­ing Bayes’ The­o­rem to Su­per­charge Me­mory Techniques

disohaOct 9, 2023, 3:34 AM
−15 points

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Dou­ble Illu­sion of Transparency

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 24, 2007, 11:06 PM
126 points

87 votes

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Bayesian in­fer­ence on 1st or­der logic

Daniel AbolafiaFeb 3, 2021, 1:03 AM
11 points

7 votes

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RL with KL penalties is bet­ter seen as Bayesian inference

May 25, 2022, 9:23 AM
115 points

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Laplace Approximation

johnswentworthJul 18, 2019, 3:23 PM
30 points

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A Prac­ti­cal Tool for Map­ping and Quan­tify­ing Belief Networks

Zack FriedmanAug 14, 2025, 5:22 PM
7 points

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In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8resMay 9, 2019, 7:16 PM
68 points

30 votes

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Why We Can’t Take Ex­pected Value Es­ti­mates Liter­ally (Even When They’re Un­bi­ased)

HoldenKarnofskyAug 18, 2011, 11:34 PM
125 points

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Think­ing with­out pri­ors?

Q HomeAug 2, 2022, 9:17 AM
7 points

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When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 23, 2008, 10:58 AM
74 points

55 votes

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Ap­plied Bayes’ The­o­rem: Read­ing People

Kaj_SotalaJun 30, 2010, 5:21 PM
37 points

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Embed­ding Eth­i­cal Pri­ors into AI Sys­tems: A Bayesian Approach

JustausernameAug 3, 2023, 3:31 PM
−5 points

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In­tro­duc­ing the Ev­i­dence Color Wheel

Larry LeeDec 14, 2024, 4:08 PM
6 points

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Evolved Bayesi­ans will be biased

tawAug 20, 2009, 2:54 PM
28 points

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Boltz­mann brain’s con­di­tional probability

Marco DiscendentiDec 29, 2023, 2:44 PM
6 points

8 votes

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LINK: Bayesian statis­tics is so sub­ver­sive, it’s banned in China!

lukeprogJan 11, 2011, 12:50 AM
4 points

11 votes

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9 comments1 min readLW link

Dooms­day, Sam­pling As­sump­tions, and Bayes

Yair HalberstadtJun 14, 2021, 12:41 PM
6 points

4 votes

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2 comments11 min readLW link

In­tro­spec­tive Bayes

False NameMay 27, 2023, 7:35 PM
−3 points

7 votes

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2 comments16 min readLW link

Mak­ing Vaccine

johnswentworthFeb 3, 2021, 8:24 PM
591 points

252 votes

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249 comments6 min readLW link3 reviews

(Sub­jec­tive Bayesi­anism vs. Fre­quen­tism) VS. For­mal­ism

Ronny FernandezNov 26, 2011, 5:05 AM
32 points

54 votes

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107 comments5 min readLW link

The Quick Bayes Table

farsanApr 18, 2012, 6:00 PM
61 points

42 votes

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32 comments2 min readLW link

Unified Causal Field The­ory: A Proof of Geo­met­ric Sub­sump­tion and Ex­ten­sion of Causal In­fer­ence Meth­ods Into Unified Framework

Cognitive JewometryJul 27, 2025, 10:00 AM
1 point

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(doi.org)

Ret­ro­spec­tive forecasting

Ege ErdilJan 30, 2022, 4:38 PM
23 points

13 votes

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6 comments5 min readLW link

Vi­sual demon­stra­tion of Op­ti­mizer’s curse

Roman MalovNov 30, 2024, 7:34 PM
25 points

18 votes

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3 comments7 min readLW link

Pri­ors as Math­e­mat­i­cal Objects

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 12, 2007, 3:24 AM
53 points

32 votes

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20 comments4 min readLW link

In­her­ited Im­prob­a­bil­ities: Trans­fer­ring the Bur­den of Proof

komponistoNov 24, 2010, 3:40 AM
46 points

45 votes

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Bayesi­ans Com­mit the Gam­bler’s Fallacy

Kevin DorstJan 7, 2024, 12:54 PM
49 points

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(kevindorst.substack.com)

Essen­tial LLM As­sumes We’re Con­scious—Out­side Rea­soner AGI Won’t

FlorianHJul 5, 2025, 4:04 PM
1 point

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Book Re­view of 5 Ap­plied Bayesian Statis­tics Books

Jan Christian RefsgaardMay 21, 2021, 10:23 AM
68 points

31 votes

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8 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How would you ex­plain Bayesian think­ing to a ten year old?

lumenwritesJan 5, 2022, 5:25 PM
7 points

5 votes

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3 comments1 min readLW link

De­mands for Par­tic­u­lar Proof: Appendices

Eliezer YudkowskyFeb 15, 2010, 7:58 AM
40 points

34 votes

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Bayesian prob­a­bil­ity the­ory as ex­tended logic—a new result

ksvanhornJul 6, 2017, 7:14 PM
37 points

17 votes

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How Much Ev­i­dence Does It Take?

Eliezer YudkowskySep 24, 2007, 4:06 AM
178 points

148 votes

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Not us­ing a pri­ori in­for­ma­tion for Rus­sian propaganda

EniScienApr 24, 2023, 1:14 AM
−5 points

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The prior of a hy­poth­e­sis does not de­pend on its complexity

cousin_itAug 26, 2010, 1:20 PM
34 points

39 votes

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69 comments1 min readLW link

Hearsay, Dou­ble Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates

Mass_DriverFeb 16, 2012, 10:31 PM
68 points

60 votes

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107 comments6 min readLW link

Multiplicitous

Jacob FalkovichDec 18, 2016, 4:39 PM
9 points

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[Question] Why is Bayesi­anism im­por­tant for ra­tio­nal­ity?

Chris_LeongSep 1, 2020, 4:24 AM
37 points

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Ful­lrank: Bayesian Noisy Sorting

Max NiedermanJul 24, 2025, 7:03 PM
20 points

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(maxniederman.com)

short­est god­damn bayes guide ever

lemonhopeMay 10, 2024, 7:06 AM
54 points

40 votes

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8 comments1 min readLW link

Find­ing the Cen­tral Limit The­o­rem in Bayes’ rule

Maxwell PetersonNov 27, 2021, 5:48 AM
23 points

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11 comments3 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist Magic vs. Bayesian Magic

Wei DaiApr 8, 2010, 8:34 PM
58 points

44 votes

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Weak Ev­i­dence is Common

dkl9Jul 16, 2023, 11:37 PM
7 points

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Five views of Bayes’ Theorem

Adam ScherlisJul 2, 2022, 2:25 AM
38 points

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4 comments1 min readLW link

How to Vi­su­al­ize Bayesianism

David UdellJun 22, 2022, 1:57 PM
9 points

5 votes

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Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty in a Bayesian framework

So8resJul 24, 2014, 2:31 PM
55 points

36 votes

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3 comments11 min readLW link

Bayes Academy: Devel­op­ment re­port 1

Kaj_SotalaNov 19, 2014, 10:35 PM
68 points

49 votes

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28 comments8 min readLW link

XKCD—Fre­quen­tist vs. Bayesians

brileeNov 9, 2012, 5:25 AM
24 points

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91 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Bayesian up­date from sen­sa­tion­al­is­tic sources

houkimeMay 11, 2023, 3:26 PM
1 point

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0 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity is Sub­jec­tively Objective

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 14, 2008, 9:16 AM
43 points

38 votes

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72 comments11 min readLW link

Bayes’ The­o­rem: In Search of Gold (Les­son 1)

bayesyatinaJun 28, 2024, 8:39 AM
3 points

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A Fer­vent Defense of Fre­quen­tist Statistics

jsteinhardtFeb 18, 2014, 8:08 PM
75 points

62 votes

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129 comments16 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8resAug 26, 2014, 3:03 AM
41 points

28 votes

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9 comments15 min readLW link

Log-odds are bet­ter than Probabilities

Robert_AIZIDec 12, 2022, 8:10 PM
22 points

9 votes

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(aizi.substack.com)

Par­ti­ci­pat­ing in a Covid-19 Vac­cine Trial #3: I Hope I feel Worse Tomorrow

ejacobMar 5, 2021, 12:02 AM
8 points

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Born as the sev­enth month dies …

Rudi CJul 10, 2020, 3:07 PM
6 points

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RFC on an open prob­lem: how to de­ter­mine prob­a­bil­ities in the face of so­cial distortion

ialdabaothOct 7, 2017, 10:04 PM
6 points

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Bayesian Flame

cousin_itJul 26, 2009, 4:49 PM
41 points

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163 comments4 min readLW link

A po­ten­tially rele­vant ex­change I had re­cently with ChatGPT 4o

roanFeb 22, 2025, 7:59 AM
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