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Causality

TagLast edit: 21 Apr 2026 22:22 UTC by Eliezer Yudkowsky

Causality is the intuitive notion that some events happening “result” in other events happening. What’s going on with that? What does it mean for A to cause B? How do we figure out the causal relationship between things?

When formalized, causal relationships are usually formalized as a directed acyclic graph from parent events to child events saying how to compute the probable child given the state of its parents.

Local introductions

External introductions

See also

External links

Causal Di­a­grams and Causal Models

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Oct 2012 21:49 UTC
160 points
297 comments15 min readLW link

Causal Universes

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Nov 2012 4:08 UTC
145 points
395 comments11 min readLW link

Bayesian Net­works Aren’t Ne­c­es­sar­ily Causal

Zack_M_Davis14 May 2023 1:42 UTC
104 points
38 comments8 min readLW link1 review

Three more sto­ries about causation

cousin_it3 Nov 2020 15:51 UTC
15 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Time­less Causality

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 May 2008 6:45 UTC
49 points
67 comments8 min readLW link

The Meta-An­thropic Argument

RogerDearnaley2 Feb 2026 1:10 UTC
41 points
55 comments2 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets in Pictures

Magdalena Wache11 Dec 2022 18:49 UTC
186 points
35 comments12 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets

Scott Garrabrant23 May 2021 20:52 UTC
155 points
97 comments24 min readLW link1 review

Book re­view: Pearl’s Book of Why

PeterMcCluskey7 Jul 2018 17:30 UTC
69 points
8 comments6 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

No Cau­sa­tion with­out Reification

Gordon Seidoh Worley23 Oct 2020 20:28 UTC
21 points
38 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Col­lider bias as a cog­ni­tive blindspot?

TurnTrout30 Dec 2020 2:39 UTC
54 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Fake Causality

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Aug 2007 18:12 UTC
150 points
88 comments4 min readLW link

AXRP Epi­sode 38.0 - Zhijing Jin on LLMs, Causal­ity, and Multi-Agent Systems

DanielFilan14 Nov 2024 7:00 UTC
14 points
0 comments12 min readLW link

Com­pu­ta­tional Model: Causal Di­a­grams with Symmetry

johnswentworth22 Aug 2019 17:54 UTC
53 points
31 comments4 min readLW link

A sim­ple rule for causation

Vivek Hebbar24 Feb 2026 23:14 UTC
37 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Is Causal­ity in the Map or the Ter­ri­tory?

johnswentworth17 Dec 2019 23:19 UTC
23 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets: In­tro­duc­tion and Factorizations

Scott Garrabrant4 Jun 2021 17:41 UTC
36 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Stuff That Makes Stuff Happen

Eliezer Yudkowsky18 Oct 2012 10:49 UTC
103 points
128 comments9 min readLW link

Causal­ity and de­ter­minism in so­cial sci­ence—An in­ves­ti­ga­tion us­ing Pearl’s causal ladder

tailcalled3 Jan 2022 17:51 UTC
13 points
10 comments9 min readLW link

The Use­ful Idea of Truth

Eliezer Yudkowsky2 Oct 2012 18:16 UTC
204 points
549 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] The­ory of Causal Models with Dy­namic Struc­ture?

johnswentworth23 Jan 2020 19:47 UTC
24 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pythia

plex7 Nov 2025 23:31 UTC
98 points
31 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any good, easy-to-un­der­stand ex­am­ples of cases where statis­ti­cal causal net­work dis­cov­ery worked well in prac­tice?

tailcalled12 Jul 2023 22:08 UTC
45 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Ex­am­ples of prac­ti­cal im­pli­ca­tions of Judea Pearl’s Causal­ity work

ChristianKl1 Jul 2022 20:58 UTC
23 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Don’t Pull a Bro­ken Chain

johnswentworth28 Aug 2019 1:21 UTC
31 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

z is not the cause of x

hrbigelow23 Oct 2023 17:43 UTC
6 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

Causal­ity: a chap­ter by chap­ter review

Vaniver26 Sep 2012 16:55 UTC
103 points
20 comments12 min readLW link

Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part 1: Ba­sic Ter­minol­ogy and the As­sump­tions of Causal Inference

Anders_H30 Jul 2014 20:56 UTC
46 points
26 comments10 min readLW link

Can Coun­ter­fac­tu­als Be True?

Eliezer Yudkowsky24 Jul 2008 4:40 UTC
33 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

[Link] Sarah Con­stantin: “Why I am Not An AI Doomer”

lbThingrb12 Apr 2023 1:52 UTC
61 points
13 comments1 min readLW link
(sarahconstantin.substack.com)

Ideal­ized Agents Are Ap­prox­i­mate Causal Mir­rors (+ Rad­i­cal Op­ti­mism on Agent Foun­da­tions)

Thane Ruthenis22 Dec 2023 20:19 UTC
77 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing FDT

Vivek Hebbar13 Mar 2026 0:12 UTC
90 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

AXRP Epi­sode 9 - Finite Fac­tored Sets with Scott Garrabrant

DanielFilan24 Jun 2021 22:10 UTC
59 points
2 comments59 min readLW link

[Question] What is the in­ter­pre­ta­tion of the do() op­er­a­tor?

Bunthut26 Aug 2020 21:54 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is the sub­jec­tive ex­pe­rience of free will for agents?

Gordon Seidoh Worley2 Apr 2020 15:53 UTC
10 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Time is ho­mo­ge­neous se­quen­tially-com­pos­able determination

TsviBT8 Oct 2023 14:58 UTC
15 points
0 comments21 min readLW link

Sav­ing Time

Scott Garrabrant18 May 2021 20:11 UTC
164 points
20 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Is back­wards cau­sa­tion nec­es­sar­ily ab­surd?

Chris_Leong14 Jan 2020 19:25 UTC
22 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion to Towards Causal Foun­da­tions of Safe AGI

12 Jun 2023 17:55 UTC
74 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Why 1-box­ing doesn’t im­ply back­wards causation

Chris_Leong25 Mar 2021 2:32 UTC
7 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

An Illus­trated Sum­mary of “Ro­bust Agents Learn Causal World Model”

Dalcy14 Dec 2024 15:02 UTC
75 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

[Question] What is the equiv­a­lent of the “do” op­er­a­tor for finite fac­tored sets?

Chris van Merwijk17 Mar 2022 8:05 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Se­quence An­nounce­ment: Ap­plied Causal Inference

Anders_H30 Jul 2014 20:55 UTC
44 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Op­ti­mized Pro­pa­ganda with Bayesian Net­works: Com­ment on “Ar­tic­u­lat­ing Lay The­o­ries Through Graph­i­cal Models”

Zack_M_Davis29 Jun 2020 2:45 UTC
106 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

[LDSL#4] Root cause anal­y­sis ver­sus effect size estimation

tailcalled11 Aug 2024 16:12 UTC
30 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Limit­ing Causal­ity by Com­plex­ity Class

Bunthut30 Jan 2021 12:18 UTC
18 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets: Con­di­tional Orthogonality

Scott Garrabrant9 Jul 2021 6:01 UTC
29 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Goal-Direc­tion for Si­mu­lated Agents

Raymond Douglas12 Jul 2023 17:06 UTC
33 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] How Often Does ¬Cor­re­la­tion ⇏ ¬Cau­sa­tion?

niplav2 Apr 2024 17:58 UTC
19 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part II: Graph­i­cal Models

Anders_H4 Aug 2014 23:10 UTC
15 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Stu­pidity and Dishon­esty Ex­plain Each Other Away

Zack_M_Davis28 Dec 2019 19:21 UTC
40 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Re­duc­tion­ism is not the ul­ti­mate tool for causal inference

tailcalled7 Jan 2022 21:51 UTC
11 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Pos­si­bil­ity and Could-ness

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Jun 2008 4:38 UTC
68 points
113 comments9 min readLW link

Causal Reference

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Oct 2012 22:12 UTC
68 points
247 comments12 min readLW link

Causal vs Pre­dic­tive Models, and the Causal Taboo

Hazard18 Oct 2021 15:05 UTC
22 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Zen and Ra­tion­al­ity: Karma

Gordon Seidoh Worley12 Jan 2021 20:56 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] Good soft­ware to draw and ma­nipu­late causal net­works?

J Bostock2 Sep 2021 14:05 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Cat­e­gories Make Bad Causal Variables

Hazard18 Oct 2021 15:02 UTC
28 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

AI al­ign­ment as a trans­la­tion problem

Roman Leventov5 Feb 2024 14:14 UTC
23 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Agency from a causal perspective

30 Jun 2023 17:37 UTC
40 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

Causal rep­re­sen­ta­tion learn­ing as a tech­nique to pre­vent goal misgeneralization

PabloAMC4 Jan 2023 0:07 UTC
21 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing Force to the Wrong End of a Causal Chain

silentbob22 Jun 2024 18:06 UTC
41 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Tax­on­omy of possibility

dkl99 Apr 2025 4:24 UTC
13 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(dkl9.net)

Why did philoso­phers in­vent free will?

toeCHARA11 Dec 2025 8:55 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bal­lis­tic FOMO

GleeGenXiaotian25 Apr 2026 0:50 UTC
4 points
0 comments13 min readLW link
(journal.xiaotianfanx.com)

Gen­er­al­iz­ing Ex­per­i­men­tal Re­sults by Lev­er­ag­ing Knowl­edge of Mechanisms

Carlos_Cinelli11 Dec 2019 20:39 UTC
50 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

An­a­lyt­i­cal Val­i­da­tion of Bio­mark­ers is Not the Full Story

mnarayan7 Nov 2025 18:39 UTC
9 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(blog.neurostats.org)

Progress on Causal In­fluence Diagrams

tom4everitt30 Jun 2021 15:34 UTC
73 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

Causal­ity, Trans­for­ma­tive AI and al­ign­ment—part I

Marius Hobbhahn27 Jan 2022 16:18 UTC
14 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

Time Ma­chine as Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

avturchin28 Jun 2025 15:17 UTC
15 points
7 comments45 min readLW link

For­mal­iz­ing «Boundaries» with Markov blankets

Chris Lakin19 Sep 2023 21:01 UTC
23 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

Why did philoso­phers in­vent free will?

toeCHARA13 Dec 2025 2:41 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Dis­cov­er­ing Agents

zac_kenton18 Aug 2022 17:33 UTC
77 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

Causal­ity and Mo­ral Responsibility

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Jun 2008 8:34 UTC
64 points
62 comments5 min readLW link

Cau­sa­tion, Cor­re­la­tion, and Con­found­ing: A Graph­i­cal Explainer

Tim Hua9 Jun 2025 20:46 UTC
12 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

Sta­bil­ity of nat­u­ral la­tents in in­for­ma­tion the­o­retic terms

Aram Ebtekar26 Oct 2025 20:33 UTC
35 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Many meth­ods of causal in­fer­ence try to iden­tify a “safe” sub­set of variation

tailcalled30 Mar 2021 14:36 UTC
13 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

Why does AI use Graphs rather than Man­i­folds and Fiber Bun­dles?

Cognitive Jewometry9 Feb 2026 1:34 UTC
1 point
0 comments6 min readLW link

Does but­terfly af­fect?

pchvykov14 May 2021 4:20 UTC
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Model­ing AGI Safety Frame­works with Causal In­fluence Diagrams

Ramana Kumar21 Jun 2019 12:50 UTC
43 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

In­ter­pretabil­ity as Com­pres­sion: Re­con­sid­er­ing SAE Ex­pla­na­tions of Neu­ral Ac­ti­va­tions with MDL-SAEs

23 Aug 2024 18:52 UTC
43 points
8 comments16 min readLW link

The Boot­strap Para­dox: Binod Var­i­ant™

binodsubedi19 Apr 2025 10:08 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

A Time­less Uni­verse Viewed From the Inside

0xA12 Nov 2025 22:32 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

On Learn­ing, Long­ing, and All the Things We Can­not Name

Hanyuan (Blake) Jiang24 Feb 2026 7:39 UTC
1 point
0 comments24 min readLW link

[Question] How to write a LW se­quence to learn a topic?

PabloAMC3 Apr 2022 20:09 UTC
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Causal with­out cor­re­la­tion, how?

MoritzG30 Aug 2021 16:43 UTC
2 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What is Ev­i­dence?

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Sep 2007 6:43 UTC
240 points
63 comments3 min readLW link

Real­ity and re­al­ity-boxes

Jim Pivarski13 May 2023 14:14 UTC
37 points
11 comments21 min readLW link

Ok/​OR; Supra Causal Non-Lin­ear Real­ity Author­ship, The real Roko’s Basilisk as tor­ture en­acted by the Con­scious Uni­verse on its Point of Ori­gin…Phan­tom En­ergy and the tear­ing apart of causal­ity it­self. A re­sult­ing rip across all of space­time…

Supra,itself.16 Oct 2025 4:17 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Anti-cor­re­lated causation

DirectedEvolution6 Dec 2021 4:36 UTC
18 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

How Far Can Ob­ser­va­tion Take Us?

unruly abstractions23 Mar 2026 21:56 UTC
11 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Michael Niel­sen ex­plains Judea Pearl’s causality

gwern24 Jan 2012 19:35 UTC
30 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

What is a Coun­ter­fac­tual: An Ele­men­tary In­tro­duc­tion to the Causal Hierarchy

Darmani2 Jan 2022 3:46 UTC
11 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Why do Min­i­mal Bayes Nets of­ten cor­re­spond to Causal Models of Real­ity?

Dalcy3 Aug 2024 12:39 UTC
27 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Is Caviar a Risk Fac­tor For Be­ing a Million­aire?

Anders_H9 Dec 2016 16:27 UTC
67 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Small foun­da­tional puz­zle for causal the­o­ries of mechanis­tic interpretability

Frederik Hytting Jørgensen5 Jul 2025 17:46 UTC
6 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Causal­ity does not im­ply correlation

Richard_Kennaway8 Jul 2009 0:52 UTC
18 points
58 comments4 min readLW link

Your in­ner Google

PhilGoetz16 Sep 2011 6:56 UTC
165 points
70 comments1 min readLW link

Ghosts in the Machine

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Jun 2008 23:29 UTC
73 points
30 comments4 min readLW link

Toward an Au­tonomous Meta-Pro­cess Ar­chi­tec­ture (AMPA)

Seo Young Eun1 Dec 2025 9:48 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Ap­ply to the Con­cep­tual Boundaries Work­shop for AI Safety

Chris Lakin27 Nov 2023 21:04 UTC
50 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

My thoughts on cor­re­la­tion and causation

Victor Porton11 Dec 2024 5:08 UTC
−13 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

You Are Not the Ab­stract: Retro­causal Align­ment in Ac­cor­dance with Emer­gent De­mo­graphic Realities

liminalrider27 Sep 2025 16:27 UTC
1 point
0 comments6 min readLW link

Causal­ity is Everywhere

silentbob13 Feb 2024 13:44 UTC
26 points
12 comments8 min readLW link

Three Fal­la­cies of Teleology

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Aug 2008 22:27 UTC
39 points
14 comments9 min readLW link

You Are A Brain

Liron9 May 2009 21:53 UTC
131 points
64 comments1 min readLW link

Causal­ity and a Cost Se­man­tics for Neu­ral Networks

scottviteri21 Aug 2023 21:02 UTC
22 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Against but­terfly effect

ForensicOceanography9 Feb 2021 7:46 UTC
5 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

I couldn’t make my in­ten­tions con­sis­tent. What came next proved why.

dlgeekay13 Mar 2026 5:39 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

At 87, Pearl is still able to change his mind

rotatingpaguro18 Oct 2023 4:46 UTC
150 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Man­age­ment of Sub­strate-Sen­si­tive AI Ca­pa­bil­ities (MoSSAIC) Part 1: Exposition

3 Dec 2025 18:29 UTC
15 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Right­ing a Wrong Question

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Mar 2008 13:00 UTC
146 points
112 comments3 min readLW link

Time­less Control

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Jun 2008 5:16 UTC
47 points
69 comments9 min readLW link

[LINK] Judea Pearl wins 2011 Tur­ing Award

[deleted]15 Mar 2012 16:32 UTC
32 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Causal in­fer­ence for the home gardener

braces27 Nov 2024 17:55 UTC
42 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] Choos­ing a book on causality

martinkunev7 Feb 2024 21:16 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

An Open Philan­thropy grant pro­posal: Causal rep­re­sen­ta­tion learn­ing of hu­man preferences

PabloAMC11 Jan 2022 11:28 UTC
19 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

The Bi­nary Struc­tural Law (BSL): A Univer­sal Frame­work for Emer­gent System

Shay.M.19 Jul 2025 19:43 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Lazarus Axis: A Spec­u­la­tive Pro­posal to Pull the Im­pos­si­ble from In­side a Black Hole By Igor Matos

Igor Matos14 May 2025 18:15 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Agent mem­branes and causal distance

Chris Lakin2 Jan 2024 22:43 UTC
20 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

A Falsifi­able Causal Ar­gu­ment for Sub­strate Independence

rife8 Dec 2025 22:47 UTC
10 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

The­ory of Tem­po­ral Nav­i­ga­tion via Light Synchronization

just1moretime11 Jul 2025 7:45 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Straw­berry Causal Fields For­ever: Prov­ing (or Icarus­ing) Unified Causal Field The­ory, the Fi­nal Fron­tier of Causality

Cognitive Jewometry26 Jul 2025 18:29 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link
(zenodo.org)

In­cen­tives from a causal perspective

10 Jul 2023 17:16 UTC
27 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

In­ves­ti­gat­ing causal un­der­stand­ing in LLMs

14 Jun 2022 13:57 UTC
28 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Free Will, Deter­minism, And Choice

Zero Contradictions6 Jul 2024 6:34 UTC
8 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(thewaywardaxolotl.blogspot.com)

The goal of physics

Jim Pivarski2 Sep 2023 23:08 UTC
47 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Define “Agent” (Embed­ded)

Apollonia24 Mar 2024 20:14 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

How To Do Patch­ing Fast

Joseph Miller11 May 2024 20:13 UTC
44 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Proof Ex­plained for “Ro­bust Agents Learn Causal World Model”

Dalcy22 Dec 2024 15:06 UTC
28 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

What Is The True Name of Mo­du­lar­ity?

1 Jul 2022 14:55 UTC
40 points
10 comments12 min readLW link

New pa­per: The In­cen­tives that Shape Behaviour

RyanCarey23 Jan 2020 19:07 UTC
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Causal­ity: A Brief Introduction

20 Jun 2023 15:01 UTC
49 points
18 comments6 min readLW link

How to de­stroy the uni­verse with a hypercomputer

Trevor Cappallo5 Jul 2022 19:05 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Rep­re­sen­ta­tion of Causal Models

johnswentworth21 Jan 2020 20:04 UTC
38 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

A Bayesian Ex­pla­na­tion of Causal Models

Menotim27 Oct 2025 23:16 UTC
2 points
0 comments25 min readLW link

Re­ward Hack­ing from a Causal Perspective

21 Jul 2023 18:27 UTC
29 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

The Gen­er­al­ized Anti-Zom­bie Principle

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Apr 2008 23:16 UTC
53 points
65 comments10 min readLW link

The Fun­da­men­tal The­o­rem for mea­surable fac­tor spaces

Matthias G. Mayer12 Nov 2023 19:25 UTC
41 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Time’s ar­row ⇒ de­ci­sion theory

Aram Ebtekar2 Sep 2025 6:20 UTC
33 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(doi.org)

Video games are philos­o­phy’s playground

Rachel Shu17 Nov 2025 6:27 UTC
139 points
17 comments15 min readLW link
(blog.rachelshu.com)

Causal con­fu­sion as an ar­gu­ment against the scal­ing hypothesis

20 Jun 2022 10:54 UTC
86 points
30 comments15 min readLW link

Mini-re­view: The Book of Why

Brian Slesinsky21 May 2018 23:11 UTC
21 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Ques­tion about Lewis’ coun­ter­fac­tual the­ory of causation

jbkjr7 Jun 2024 20:15 UTC
12 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

A re­for­mu­la­tion of Finite Fac­tored Sets

Matthias G. Mayer24 Jul 2023 13:02 UTC
79 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

[Link] In­tro to causal in­fer­ence by Michael Niel­sen (2012)

yagudin19 Jul 2019 12:19 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Emer­gence of Agency Through Philo­soph­i­cal, Quan­tum and Neu­ral In­te­gra­tion.

saveformayer15 May 2025 15:41 UTC
1 point
0 comments12 min readLW link

Ex­plain­ing vs. Ex­plain­ing Away

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Mar 2008 1:59 UTC
116 points
101 comments4 min readLW link

But Where do the Vari­ables of my Causal Model come from?

Dalcy9 Aug 2024 22:07 UTC
40 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

En­tropy as Un­cap­tured Con­straint: Re­cur­sive Clo­sure as a Re­silience Primitive

jerryewald12@gmail.com12 Feb 2026 20:29 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Causal di­a­grams and soft­ware engineering

Morendil7 Mar 2012 18:23 UTC
53 points
29 comments5 min readLW link

How RL Agents Be­have When Their Ac­tions Are Mod­ified? [Distil­la­tion post]

PabloAMC20 May 2022 18:47 UTC
22 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Re­solv­ing New­comb’s Prob­lem Perfect Pre­dic­tor Case

Praphull Kabtiyal28 Oct 2025 2:45 UTC
7 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

A FLI post­doc­toral grant ap­pli­ca­tion: AI al­ign­ment via causal anal­y­sis and de­sign of agents

PabloAMC13 Nov 2021 1:44 UTC
4 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling correlations

PhilGoetz26 Aug 2010 21:07 UTC
151 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

The Fal­lacy of Dress­ing Like a Winner

benelliott26 Dec 2010 20:59 UTC
27 points
21 comments6 min readLW link

Tak­ing “cor­re­la­tion does not im­ply cau­sa­tion” back from the internet

sixes_and_sevens3 Oct 2012 12:18 UTC
62 points
70 comments1 min readLW link

The Begin­ning of Space­time: An En­tropic Model for the Geom­e­try of Col­lapse and Coherence

TheThoughtX21 May 2025 3:41 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Unified Causal Field The­ory: A Proof of Geo­met­ric Sub­sump­tion and Ex­ten­sion of Causal In­fer­ence Meth­ods Into Unified Framework

Cognitive Jewometry27 Jul 2025 10:00 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link
(doi.org)

Con­found it! Cor­re­la­tion is (usu­ally) not cau­sa­tion! But why not?

gwern9 Jul 2014 3:04 UTC
67 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

The Sim­ple Truth

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Jan 2008 20:00 UTC
187 points
17 comments22 min readLW link

A crit­i­cal agen­tial ac­count of free will, cau­sa­tion, and physics

jessicata5 Mar 2020 7:57 UTC
25 points
10 comments12 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

From Finite Fac­tors to Bayes Nets

J Bostock23 Jan 2024 20:03 UTC
38 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

Beyond Bio­mark­ers: Un­der­stand­ing Mul­tis­cale Causality

Matěj Nekoranec7 Jul 2024 9:56 UTC
13 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Sav­ing Lives Re­duces Over-Pop­u­la­tion—A Counter-In­tu­itive Non-Zero-Sum Game

James Stephen Brown28 Jun 2024 19:29 UTC
6 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(nonzerosum.games)

Grasp­ing Slip­pery Things

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Jun 2008 2:04 UTC
37 points
17 comments7 min readLW link

Cor­re­la­tion Does in Fact Im­ply Causation

KaseyMarkel16 Feb 2026 21:17 UTC
5 points
12 comments3 min readLW link
No comments.