We’ve been using the term prophet here, but it’s really just a term to refer to people who make decisions but don’t allocate all the resources to themselves. Certainly that more general group of people has not achieved enlightenment.
One possible answer is that any given mathematical field doesn’t have to provide any useful insights into reality, and a lot of them have only provided insight after they already existed. This happens because theoretical mathematicians usually are into mathematics because they really like mathematics, not because they want to provide useful insights into reality, although when it happens is a nice side benefit.
This has been one of the most interesting articles that I’ve read in a while. Regardless of its veracity (which I am ill-suited to judge), it’s very interesting to see this kind of insight into an amateur’s take on a field I know basically nothing about.
“hundreds of thousands to millions of students defaulting on their debt”:
From my understanding, this can’t really happen (in a way that causes financial issues for the lenders). As long as student loan holders have income, it can be garnished to pay off student loans. In addition, you can’t use bankruptcy to get out of them.
Because of this, it’s not really a bubble, since it can’t pop. It will just generally depress the country’s economy without causing any sudden crash.
Regarding RSS: yes, it is still running. In fact, that’s how I found this post!
I think it’s important to have the “ask a question” feature keep its name, since a lot of questions aren’t necessarily confusion. For example, one might want to expand ones knowledge on a subject. They aren’t confused, they’re just lacking knowledge.
I’m planning on being there.
Also of note, December 9th is Smallpox Eradication Day!
If anything, to me it seems like younger generations are less exploitative. For example, they tend to tip a lot higher at restaurants.
The difference is that before people looked at the Drake equation, and thought that even with the uncertainty, there was a very low probability of no aliens, and this corrects that assumption.
Many people who are overweight do “quit” tasty food in order to lose weight, although it’s not really the same thing, because the issue isn’t the time-wasting but the unhealthiness.
It seems to me that a defining characteristic of lotuses is that they waste time. Eating tasty food doesn’t usually take more time than other food. In fact, it’s often quite the opposite, given fast food and preprepared junk food.
That is indeed what it means in my mind.
I agree that it was bad wording. Perhaps something more along the lines of “should work well.”
I believe that the Occamian prior should hold true in any universe where the laws of probability hold. I don’t see any reason why not, since the assumption behind it is that all the individual levels of complexity of different models have roughly the same probability.
Indeed! I haven’t done any machine learning before (although I have a fair amount of general programming experience), but it was still really interesting to read about.
Basically, because many of those other things have a large number of people already working on them, while a significant portion of all the AI risk researchers in the world are part of this community—this was even more so the case when Yudkowsky started Lesswrong. Also, a lot of people in this community have interest/skills in the computer science field, so applying that to AI is much less of a reach than them, say, learning biology so they can help stop pandemics.
A similar question (though just asking about climate change) was answered here.
“Why should the Occamian prior work so well in the real world?”
A different way of phrasing Occam’s Razor is “Given several competing models of reality, the most likely one is the one that involves multiplying together the fewest probabilities.” That’s because each additional level of complexity is adding another probability that needs to be multiplied together. It’s a simple result of probability.
It’s always good to hear of people being inspired and productive, especially on good causes! I need a bit more of that myself.
what Scott Alexander dubbed the careless springtime of a young universe
Source on this? It sounds like an interesting one of his posts and Google and DuckDuckGo don’t find anything at all for “careless springtime of a young universe” other than this post.
I believe that EY’s main point with printing money is that central banks tend to not print enough money, even if some banks—such as Russia’s in the 90′s—print too much.
Just because you can do too much of something, it doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t do that thing more.
The visitor definitely seems to be from dath ilan, so I guess this is looking at how we can get there.
Well, the velcro-shoes solution is mostly a societal expectation that a legal expectation, so that wouldn’t be solved.
I put the link into the body of my post.